2015 NFL Draft: Week Four Stock Report
A look at NFL prospects who helped and may have hurt themselves this past weekend:
Who helped themselves?
DE Preston Smith, SR, Mississippi State (6-5 | 267 | 4.92 | #91)
An underrated player on an underrated team, Smith was one of the stars for the Bulldogs Saturday night as Mississippi State escaped Baton Route with a 34-29 victory over LSU. Through four games, he is among the team leaders in tackles (14), tackles for loss (5.0), sacks (3.0), passes defended (3), forced fumbles (1) and blocked kicks (2). He finished with a pair of tackles for loss against LSU, accounting for 16 negative yards for the Tigers’ offense, and was a regular in the Tigers’ backfield all four quarters. Smith passes the eye test with his tall, long frame and firm build, using his length and power to force his way past blockers. He shows improved hand use to engage and dispose of blockers with a heavy punch to jolt blockers, especially when he has a step or two of momentum. Smith isn’t a quick-twitch mover and is part of a rotation that allows him to be fresh, but he has played much better than the undrafted grades he received from scouts before the season. He is working his way up draft boards and is one of a handful of Bulldog defenders who look like they’ll be playing on Sundays soon.
QB Shane Carden, SR, East Carolina (6-2 | 221 | 4.92 | #5)
Arguably the most impressive performance by a quarterback this season, Carden had an outstanding performance against North Carolina, leading the Pirates to a 70-41 win against their in-state foe. He finished 30-for-48 (62.5%) for 438 yards and six total touchdowns, four passing and two rushing. The Tar Heels’ defense had no answer for ECU on offense as Carden used his recognition skills, functional mobility and resilient attitude to account for 22 first downs. He is very comfortable in the Pirates’ shotgun spread attack and sees the field well to distribute the rock to the weapons around him. Carden doesn’t have an elite arm and he has some mechanical flaws, but he shows high football intelligence and toughness with enough talent to potentially carve out a Bruce Gradkowski-type career in the NFL.
DT Eddie Goldman, JR, Florida State (6-3 | 314 | 5.28 | #90)
While most of the attention was on Florida State’s offense Saturday night, Goldman was the star of the Seminoles defense, especially in the second half when his team needed him the most with Mario Edwards sidelined with a concussion. Goldman finished with only two tackles in the contest, but he was a force all game and came up big with two pivotal plays that potentially changed the outcome of the contest. After a Clemson interception with 2:14 left in the fourth quarter and the score tied, the Tigers were marching down the field for at the very least a go-ahead field goal attempt before Goldman forced a fumble by Tigers RB C.J. Davidson, allowing Florida State to run out the clock and head to extra time. Then in overtime on 2nd-and-10 for Clemson, Goldman burst into the backfield with his quickness and power, sacking Deshaun Watson. Two plays later, Clemson were stopped on fourth down, giving Florida State the ball and eventual win. With Timmy Jernigan off to the NFL, Florida State needed Goldman to elevate his game in 2014 and several close to the program believe he will follow Jernigan’s lead and bolt for the NFL as an underclassman after this season.
WR Cayleb Jones, rSO, Arizona (6-3 | 204 | 4.62 | #1)
Returning from a knee injury, Arizona receiver Austin Hill was expected to be the top receiver for the Wildcats this season, but so far through four games, it has been Jones who has been Arizona’s top target. And against California on Saturday, the Texas transfer could not be stopped as he set new career-bests with 13 catches for 186 yards and three touchdowns. A former top high school recruit, Jones had just one catch on his collegiate resume entering this season, but he ranks among the Pac-12 leaders with 29 catches, 475 receiving yards and six touchdowns so far this season. He has only average speed and initial burst, but does an excellent job using his size and length to shield the play from defenders and out-muscle everyone around him. Jones also uses a strong stiff arm and powerful balance to be a threat after the catch. He’s only a redshirt sophomore, but Jones has put himself on the NFL radar very quickly.
Who hurt themselves?
FS Jalen Mills, JR, LSU (6-1 | 189 | 4.53 | #28)
No other defender on the LSU defense has more experience than Mills, who made his 30th start for the Tigers on Saturday. Most of that experience came at cornerback, but he moved full-time to free safety this season and against Mississippi State, it was clear he’s still adjusting to the switch. Although he finished the game with seven tackles, Mills’ missed tackles stood out more as he struggled with his downhill angles, whiffing on several attempts in the middle of the field and lacking the strength to finish on other attempts. He is a balanced athlete with quick footwork and excellent coordination to blanket receivers up and down the field, but so far he has struggled at safety with streaky instincts and below average reliability as a downhill run defender. Mills is still supremely talented and was stamped with early round grades by some scouts, but playing at safety has raised some questions and hurt his draft stock.
WR Tyler Lockett, SR, Kansas State (5-11 | 175 | 4.46 | #16)
It will be a long time before Kansas State players and fans forget the loss last Thursday as the Wildcats came close to knocking off top-10 ranked Auburn, but missed opportunities left them short. Three missed field goals and three turnovers were the difference, but it was a first quarter interception that was especially heartbreaking for the KSU faithful because it should have been seven points. On 2nd-and-goal from Auburn’s one-yard line, quarterback Jake Waters delivered a quick strike through the linebacker level to an open Locket, who was running an inside route from the slot. It was a sure touchdown, but the ball bounced off his hands as he tried to trap it against his body and bounced into the defenders’ grasp for the turnover and touchback. Lockett had a few other drops in the game, which has been a pattern over his career with his smaller hands and tendency to run before securing the ball. He runs like the wind with the lighting quick feet to create separation and create, but a small catching radius and history of drops is not a good combination for a target of his size.
Other NFL Draft notes:
The well-traveled journey for an intriguing NFL prospect has taken another turn, but not a positive one. Texas State senior OLB Mike Orakpo (6-1 | 226 | 4.76 | #1) tore the ACL and MCL in his knee on September 13 against Navy, ending his collegiate career. The younger brother of 2009 first round pick Brian Orakpo, he started his career at Colorado State before he was dismissed due to an on-campus incident in 2012. Orakpo originally chose Baylor as his transfer school, but that didn’t work out and he ended up at Texas State where he led the team in tackles for loss (10.0), sacks (4.5) and forced fumbles (3) last season. He underwent surgery last week and time will tell if his knee will be healthy enough to work out prior to the 2015 NFL Draft.
With a weak crop of senior passers, there is an opportunity for lesser known quarterback prospects to elevate their play and potentially earn a draftable grade from NFL scouts. One of those players is Old Dominion senior QB Taylor Heinicke (6-1 | 213 | 4.76 | #14), who has been the face of the Monarchs’ program the last four seasons. He had an outstanding performance in Old Dominion’s first conference contest as a member of Conference USA, leading his team to the 45-42 road victory over Rice. Heinicke finished 27-for-43 (62.8%) for 430 yards and six touchdowns (five passing, one rushing), earning C-USA Offensive Player of the Week honors. He doesn’t have ideal size or arm strength for the NFL, but he has natural leadership traits and a knack for making the right decisions at the right time. Heinicke is likely a longshot to be drafted, but his name is worth keeping on the radar.
Pittsburgh ranks top-five in all of FBS in rushing, led by true sophomore RB James Connor who leads the nation in rushing yards (699) and rushing touchdowns (9). There’s no question he is a talented runner, but he owes some of that success to his offensive line, notably the right side tandem made up of seniors RG Matt Rotheram (6-5 | 340 | 5.53 | #74) and RT T.J. Clemmings (6-5 | 305 | 5.14 | #68). Against Iowa on Saturday, the Rotheram-Clemmings duo really stood out against a stout Hawkeyes’ defensive line. Rotheram squares and extends to lock out at the point of attack, showing a natural feel and awareness for his surroundings. And Clemmings, who moved to the offensive line from defensive end two years ago, has an ideal body type for the position and plays with excellent quickness and body control to abuse defenders through the echo of the whistle. Both of these seniors are maulers in the run game and have grabbed the attention of scouts with their play thus far in 2014.
The last time Southern Illinois produced multiple draft picks in the same year was the 1972 NFL Draft, but that could change with the 2015 class. Salukis’ seniors TE MyCole Pruitt (6-2 | 250 | 4.73 | #4) and RB Malcolm Agnew (5-9 | 205 | 4.53 | #31) have next level talent and that was on display Saturday against Purdue, the lone FBS opponent on the SIU schedule. Working out of the slot and inline, Pruitt had a game-best 10 catches for 136 yards, displaying quickness off the line of scrimmage with flexibility and gliding speed to catch the ball in stride and motor down the field. He leaves you wanting more at times with some laziness in his routes and as a blocker, but Pruitt has smooth footwork to fool defensive backs with large, soft mitts to look the ball in and secure grabs. Agnew, an Oregon State transfer, averaged only 2.8 yards against the Boilermakers’ defense, but he didn’t receive much help from his offensive line. He is quick-footed with easy lateral moves and decisive action, attacking the line of scrimmage and wasting little time getting north-south. Agnew is also a reliable receiver out of the backfield, finishing second on the team Saturday with five catches for 36 yards. Both prospects are draftable talents.
Another tight end prospect who seems to be under-the-radar, senior TE Clive Walford (6-4 | 263 | 4.87 | #46) leads the Hurricanes in receptions through four games and has been Mr. Reliable for Miami’s freshman quarterback. He set career-bests on Saturday against Nebraska with seven catches for 80 yards and one touchdown. Walford doesn’t play with much burst and lacks multiple gears to be dangerous after the catch, but he uses his frame well and secures the ball in contested situations. Whether he lines up inline, in the backfield or in the slot for the Hurricanes, Walford has shown he can be a dependable option on offense and projects as a third day NFL prospect.
Congratulations to Nebraska senior RB Ameer Abdullah (5-9 | 195 | 4.48 | #8), who became the Huskers all-time leader in all-purpose yardage over the weekend, passing the legendary Johnny Rodgers. Currently at 5,760 career yards, Abdullah leads all of college football with 848 all-purpose yards in 2014 -- to put that number in perspective, Pittsburgh's James Connor (719) is the only other FBS player to eclipse the 700-yard mark.
