Nets 2023-24 season preview and prediction

The 2023-24 NBA season is set to begin, and with it comes a new beginning for a Nets franchise that’s entered each season since 2019 a favorite, thanks to boasting Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving on their roster.

Now both are gone, and in their wake an upstart group of high-motor players remain.

Can they rekindle Brooklyn's winning ways with a more sustained long-term vision, or are they the springboard for the next big swing?

What would be a successful season?

When the Nets had to move on from their two stars, it was clear they didn’t want to bottom out. They were sure to return quality players, including potential centerpieces in Mikal Bridges and Cam Johnson, knowing they own few of their own draft picks.

Tanking is simply not in the cards for this team, but they aren’t trying to immediately leap back into contention. They could’ve gotten involved in Damian Lillard talks and passed, perhaps wanting to avoid the same star-arrival-upends-young-interesting-team path.

So here they stand, squarely in the middle of the pack with some high-quality talent but not enough to overpower you. The similar team they trotted out post-trades had a negative record and point differential, but with some offseason moves and a full training camp, they should be better.

The final tally likely won’t define this Nets season as much as the internal development they display. Can this core group of guys be competitive with the right upgrades around them?

Making the play-in tournament would be a solid foundational step, the top six an inspiring surprise, with missing it all a likely failure. But it’s not about this year as much as the ones to come.

Offensive creation

Last year’s post-trade Nets struggled mightily to generate offense. Bridges and Spencer Dinwiddie were their primary creation options, leading to a stymied output.

The blueprint is there, as Brooklyn has a lot of strong shooters, they just need more guys who can draw multiple defenders into the paint and find those shooters. How Bridges develops as a playmaker with the offensive responsibility he has will be vital.

But Brooklyn did work to add other options as well, including signing Dennis Smith Jr. -- a terrific penetrator -- and Lonnie Walker IV, who won the Lakers a big playoff game with his scoring last season. They’re also hoping two returning members of their roster step up.

Ben Simmons and Cam Thomas are individual offense factories when fully engaged, and while both had their shares of struggles the last few years, they looked very good in the preseason. They’ll need to be consistently dependable so too much of the burden doesn’t fall back on Bridges.

The Ben Simmons factor

Speaking of Simmons, he’s the biggest X-factor on the team for this season and beyond. Last year, his contract looked like the biggest liability in the league, and this year some believe he could be an All-Star again.

The latter is what Brooklyn is betting on, slotting him back at point guard and boasting his improved health. The talk from the Nets (and Simmons) is being backed up thus far, with a strong preseason that featured more impressive drives than his entire 2022-23 campaign.

He's still plenty rusty and we need to see his play sustained in the regular season, but Simmons looks to have rediscovered once-regular comforts in his game: pushing the ball, attacking the rim with intent, opening up opportunities for his teammates, and playing open and free. It’s a big first step, and will be carefully watched as we dive into the season.

Rotations

After all the "experimenting" the Nets have had to do between star absences then departures, it will be nice for them to enter this season with a near-set rotation. The only big question is which fifth player rounds out the starting lineup of Simmons, Bridges, Johnson and Nic Claxton.

The spot belonged to Dinwiddie entering the preseason, but Thomas looked good there, providing more scoring and contributing on catch-and-shoot threes. Either should be a fine choice with the other leading the second unit, but given the developmental nature of the season, fans will likely want Thomas.

The remaining bench unit should feature Dorian Finney-Smith, who should be a trade candidate given his skill set better aligns with more heliocentric superstar offenses, the aforementioned Smith Jr., Royce O’Neal and whichever big earns the Claxton backup spot. Day’Ron Sharpe should own that real estate right now, but we could see Harry Giles, Noah Clowney and Trendon Watford at different points.

Prediction

The Nets finally get their clean slate following the failed Durant years, and luckily have both a solid head start and no incentive to lose. We should see a kind of repeat of 2018-19, when Brooklyn clawed its way back into the postseason with a scrappy, fun roster after years of rebuilding.

This team likely isn’t good enough to avoid the play-in tournament, and could very well get eliminated there. But if Claxton makes an All-Defensive team, Bridges is a surefire All-Star, and Simmons looks revitalized, it shouldn’t matter in the big picture.