NCAA Tournament bracketology: Battle for No. 2 and No. 3 seeds will come down to the wire
Much of the focus on men's NCAA tournament seeding centers around coveted No. 1 seeds as we inch nearer to Selection Sunday.
But this year we could also see a down-to-the-wire battle between No. 2 and No. 3 seeds. The No. 1 and No. 2 line are indeed close – with Kansas' loss to TCU on Tuesday opening up the door for chasing No. 2s Auburn, Duke and Kentucky to potentially leapfrog weaker No. 1s KU or Baylor in the next week.
But the projected No. 2 seeds are hardly safe from getting their seeds stolen themselves. Such is the case for Purdue, once in line to snatch a No. 1 seed. The Boilermakers got taken down by No. 3 seed Wisconsin on Tuesday in a game that gave the Badgers the Big Ten regular season title. The NCAA selection committee pays no attention to conference supremacy, which is why Purdue stays – barely – at the No. 2 line in today's bracket.
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But that loss for Purdue means chasing No. 3s Villanova and Texas Tech are close to vaulting ahead. That's especially true for 'Nova after knocking off top Big East threat Providence on Tuesday. That victory best positions the Wildcats to ascend up to a No. 2 seed by Selection Sunday. But it's also not out of the cards for fellow No. 3 seeds Tennessee (winners over Auburn this past weekend) or Wisconsin to move up, either.
No. 1 seeds
Gonzaga, Arizona, Kansas, Baylor.
Last four in
Indiana, Michigan, SMU, North Carolina.
First four out
Memphis, VCU, Saint Bonaventure, Rutgers.
Next four out
Oregon, Florida, Virginia Tech, Belmont.
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Others considered for at-large bids: St John's, South Carolina, Dayton.
On life support: Richmond, Mississippi State, Saint Louis, Virginia.
Multi-bid conferences: Big Ten (8), Big East (7), Big 12 (6), SEC (6), ACC (5), West Coast (4), Mountain West (4), Pac-12 (3), American Athletic (2).
Leaders or highest NET from projected one-bid conferences - (22 total): A10 - Davidson; America East - Vermont; Atlantic Sun - Liberty; Big Sky - Montana State; Big South - Longwood; Big West - Long Beach State; CAA - Towson; C-USA - North Texas; Horizon - Cleveland State; Ivy League - Princeton; MAAC - Iona; MAC - Toledo; MEAC - Norfolk State; Missouri Valley - Loyola-Chicago; Northeast - Wagner; Ohio Valley - Murray State; Patriot - Colgate; Southern - Chattanooga; Southland - Nicholls State; SWAC - Texas Southern; Summit - South Dakota State; Sun Belt - Texas State; WAC - New Mexico State.
Ineligible schools: Oklahoma State (banned), Cal Baptist, North Alabama, Merrimack, Dixie State, Tarleton State, Bellarmine, UC San Diego, St. Thomas.
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NCAA Tournament language explainer:
NET stands for the NCAA Evaluation Tool, which is the barometer for the selection committee. It includes game results, strength of schedule, game location, scoring margin (capping at 10 points per game), and net offensive and defensive efficiency.
Quadrant 1 wins: Home games vs. 1-30 NET teams; Neutral-site games vs. 1-50 NET; Away games vs. 1-75 NET
Quadrant 2 wins: Home games vs. 31-75 NET; Neutral-site games vs. 51-100 NET; Away games vs. 76-135 NET
Quadrant 3 wins: Home games vs. 76-160 NET; Neutral-site games vs. 101-200 NET; Away games vs. 136-240 NET
Quadrant 4 wins: Home games vs. 161-plus NET; Neutral-site games vs. 201-plus NET; Away games vs. 241-plus NET
Note: Most statistical data is used from WarrenNolan.com. The NET rankings (NCAA Evaluation Tool) also are a reference point.
About our bracketologist: Shelby Mast has been projecting the field since 2005 on his website, Bracket W.A.G. He joined USA TODAY in 2014. In his ninth season as our national bracketologist, Mast has finished as one of the top three bracketologists in the past eight March Madnesses. He’s also predicted for The Indianapolis Star, collegeinsider.com and is an inaugural member of the Super 10 Selection Committee. Follow him on Twitter @BracketWag.
About our college basketball reporter: Scott Gleeson has covered men's college basketball for USA TODAY since 2012, contributing to bracketology and running Bubble Tracker before tackling everything March Madness following Selection Sunday. He correctly forecasted Virginia would win the national championship in 2019 before the season began and also picked Loyola-Chicago as a Cinderella mid-major in 2018. Follow him on Twitter @ScottMGleeson.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NCAA bracketology: Wild battle for No. 2 and 3 seeds for March Madness
