NCAA Tournament will boil down to these 10 teams — and, yes, Tennessee is among them
Defense wins championships, or so we’re told. Not sure how far back it goes, but I do know defense is not mentioned specifically in John Wooden’s pyramid of success.
However, we can all agree that you have to play SOME defense if you’re going to be a team capable of winning the men’s basketball national championship.
Which brings us to the Tennessee Volunteers. Man, do the Vols play defense. Statistically, one of the best in the nation. Scoring defense (56.3), third in the nation; field goal percentage defense (35.5), second; scoring margin (15.0), third; 3-point percentage defense (24.7), first.
Championship statistics? Maybe. But there are doubts born of recent results, although I would argue the two losses last week to Vanderbilt and Missouri could be somewhat attributed to bad luck in the final seconds. It didn’t lessen coach Rick Barnes’ optimism. He thinks his team is going to be OK and that was verified with the Vols’ victory over top-ranked Alabama on Wednesday night. They should fear no team.
Still, the unexpected loss to Vanderbilt; an ugly, close win over Auburn; a loss to the ultimate underachievers, Kentucky; a loss at Florida, all of these games can be traced to poor offensive performance. The Vols shot a combined 34% in those games.
OPINION:Tennessee basketball still has what it takes to stop anyone, even No. 1 Alabama | Estes
So, what’s it going to be for the Vols? In the NCAA Tournament, one night similar to one of those four games would mean elimination. They’ve been highly ranked, high enough to be considered worthy of a potential national champion. Will they play like that for six consecutive games in March?
It's a key question and maybe reserve guard Tyreke Key might be a solution to the offensive problems. With Wednesday night’s victory as the most recent evidence, I think you have to consider Tennessee to be one of the few teams capable of winning the NCAA Tournament. In a few weeks, 68 teams will be placed in the bracket, but only a few have the ability to win it all. Right now, you have to consider the Vols among those teams. For Vols fans, here’s hoping Barnes solves his team’s offensive problems so they can make a long, postseason run.
Realistically, these are the other teams which are capable of winning the NCAA Tournament (in alphabetical order).
Alabama
The Crimson Tide is the opposite of Tennessee, a great, sometimes spectacular offensive team that can just overwhelm opponents. The Tide is also an excellent defensive team, and it has the best freshman in the country in forward Brandon Miller, who has the look of the next Kevin Durant. Their steadfast reliance on the 3-point shot could hurt them if they suddenly have an awful shooting game.
Arizona
The Wildcats are also a great offensive team, averaging 83 points per game, but they’re led by a big man, 6-foot-11 Azuolas Tubelis. The one downside is the Wildcats are sometimes careless with the basketball.
Houston
The Cougars force opponents into their defensive vise and just keep turning the handle. Teams pretty much give up after a while, which is why their margin of victory is one of the best in the nation. They are not an attractive offensive team but make up for it with relentless offensive rebounding. You could apply the same negatives to the Cougars that you would to Tennessee. If these teams ever met, the first to 40 would win.
Indiana
The Hoosiers underachieved for part of the season but then two things happened. First, coach Mike Woodson decided to force feed Trayce Jackson-Davis and the big man has been one of the top players in the country, unstoppable in the low post. Secondly, freshman guard Jalen Hood-Schifino matured into a top-notch player. So, this is a different team than it was in December.
Kansas
The Jayhawks won last season’s tournament but have had some slumps this season. Forget that. This is a championship roster with great inside/out options in big man Jalen Wilson and guards Dajuan Harris. Plus, freshman Gradey Dick has become a key player.
Miami
In the NIL era, this is the best team money can buy (OK, that’s a joke but google Miami and NIL for details). All that aside, the Hurricanes have balance and play with high intensity, especially guard Isaiah Wong. The Hurricanes are not big, which could hurt them, but they’ll be overlooked in most people’s brackets.
Purdue
The former No. 1 team in the country with the most likely national player of the year in 7-4 Zach Edey. He’s been a revelation, affecting the game at both ends of the court. What’s key for the Boilermakers is their freshmen backcourt, Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer. They’ve played with the poise of sixth-year seniors with two extra Covid seasons, and that has to continue.
UCLA
The Bruins are a veteran team that has played a challenging schedule and a few of the players were members of the 2021 Final Four team, most notably point guard Tyger Campbell and forward Jaime Jaquez Jr. They know what it takes. David Singleton, who was not a big part of that team, has emerged as a steadying influence.
Xavier
Cheating didn’t help get coach Sean Miller to the Final Four when he was at Arizona. It would be amazing if he did it in his first season back in Cincinnati. What’s critical in that effort would be the return of big man Zach Freemantle for an injury. Without him, they’re not getting there.
Who’s missing (and why)
Texas (don’t think the parts fit together correctly); Duke (too young, too inconsistent); North Carolina (ultimate underachievers, maybe locker room problems); Connecticut (coach’s lack of poise will sabotage them); Gonzaga (overrated all season).
Joe Sullivan can be reached at josephsullivan1974@gmail.com. Follow him on Twitter @GlobeSullivan.
This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: NCAA Tournament will boil down to these 10 teams, including Tennessee
