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NCAA men's tournament predictions: Four smart first-round upset picks of March Madness

Scott Gleeson, USA TODAY
·4 min read
8

Winning your NCAA men's tournament bracket pool can be contingent on making smart picks. But the smartest picks aren't just making a No. 1 seed your national champion.

The first round is where all the decisive picks can separate your bracket from the pack, and the best way to win the first round is by selecting the right upsets and being a little gutsy.

Every year, there's a handful of them that nobody saw coming (ahem, No. 15 seed Oral Roberts upsetting No. 2 Ohio State last year). But then there are the ones where you can essentially see the writing on the wall – usually in the form of a dangerous No. 12 seed over a vulnerable No. 5 seed.

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Here's a look at the four best bets for first-round bracket-busting by double-digit seeds:

No. 12 New Mexico State over No. 5 UConn

The Aggies (26-6, 14-4 WAC) have the right ingredients to become a March Madness Cinderella in the classic 12-vs.-5 first round showdown – showcasing a disciplined defense and dynamic offense. Teddy Allen (19.3 ppg, 6.8 rpg) is a 6-6 guard who can spearhead an upset against the Huskies (23-9). Coach Chris Jans, a Wichita State disciple, gets the most of this team on defense and if this team can force turnovers and control the tempo vs. a tough UConn squad apt for falling into scoring lulls, there's room for NMSU to come away victorious.

The New Mexico State Aggies celebrate after winning the championship game of the Western Athletic Conference basketball tournament against the Abilene Christian Wildcats at the Orleans Arena on March 12, 2022 in Las Vegas, Nevada. The Aggies defeated the Wildcats 66-52.
The New Mexico State Aggies celebrate after winning the championship game of the Western Athletic Conference basketball tournament against the Abilene Christian Wildcats at the Orleans Arena on March 12, 2022 in Las Vegas, Nevada. The Aggies defeated the Wildcats 66-52.

No. 12 UAB over No. 5 Houston

Coach Andy Kennedy has a dangerous team ready to play spoiler in this NCAA tournament. The Blazers (27-7) showcase a well-rounded offense that ranks sixth nationally in scoring (80.7 ppg) as well as sixth in rebounding margin (14.4). That will make a defensive-minded Houston team that just won the American Athletic tournament look the part of an underdog despite being seven seeds ahead of UAB.

Houston is a strong team but got seeded this high largely based off its NET score and less based on beating quality teams in the AAC. Memphis and SMU were both bubble teams and Houston wasn't dominating them by any stretch. Houston's statistics are deceiving and this team is as vulnerable as a No. 5 seed can be for a first-round upset.

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No. 11 Rutgers over Notre Dame and No. 6 Alabama

The Scarlet Knights (18-13) won't have an easy First Four matchup vs. Notre Dame, but coach Steve Pikiell may have the most underrated team in the entire tournament. Rutgers beat Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin and Illinois in four consecutive victories back in February as just a sample size of the type of run this team can go on. Ron Harper Jr. (15.6 ppg) is a senior with NCAA tournament experience who can help the Scarlet Knights advance to the first round. There, expect Rutgers to also have a pathway to victory vs. an Alabama team that's lost its last three games, including an conference tourney loss to SEC bottom-feeder Vanderbilt.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights forward Ron Harper Jr. (24) on the court before the game against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Jersey Mike's Arena.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights forward Ron Harper Jr. (24) on the court before the game against the Penn State Nittany Lions at Jersey Mike's Arena.

No. 11 Iowa State over No. 6 LSU

The Cyclones (20-12, 7-11 Big 12) were wildly under-seeded at No. 11 when they were more worthy of a No. 8 or No. 9 seed. They can take solace in the fact that they're meeting an LSU program that's in transition with the recent firing of Will Wade. Granted, LSU reached the Sweet 16 without a suspended Wade in 2019 but the Tigers aren't on that same level this year.

Iowa State's record can be deceiving because losing four games in a row in the Big 12 – statistically the toughest conference in the country (per NET rankings) – includes clashes with Kansas and Texas back-to-back. Iowa State's Izaiah Brockington is a do-everything guard who can be the difference-maker to pilot an upset.

Follow college basketball reporter Scott Gleeson on Twitter @ScottMGleeson.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NCAA Tournament predictions: Four smart first-round upset picks