🏀 NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks for Tuesday, February 16th | LeBron James

NBA DFS action on Tuesday, Feb. 16, locks at 7:00 p.m. EST with a six-game main slate on Yahoo, DraftKings and FanDuel. SuperDraft is locking at 7:30 p.m. EST with five featured games. Before you lock in your lineups on Yahoo, DraftKings, FanDuel and SuperDraft, make sure to check out Awesemo’s daily fantasy basketball picks, rankings and projections. Let’s dig into some daily fantasy basketball picks, including LeBron James, Chris Paul, Michael Porter Jr. and more.

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NBA DFS Picks: Building Blocks, Tuesday February 16th

Yahoo Play of the Day – Chris Paul: Phoenix Suns vs. Brooklyn Nets

• Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 35.67 | DraftKings: 36.5

• Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 16% | FanDuel 9.9% | DraftKings 6.3%

• DFS Salary: Yahoo $30 | FanDuel $7,800 | DraftKings $7,800

What a world we live in with three games boasting a projected point total 230 or higher. Brooklyn took care of business last night in Sacramento, and they will be in Phoenix tonight. Once more they will be without the services of Kevin Durant, but last night Kyrie Irving did not take the court in the final frame, and James Harden played a reasonable 34.5 minutes before heading to the bench midway through the fourth quarter. The Suns have won nine of their last 10 games, including the most recent six. Chris Paul has led the team to a 17-9 record, which is impressive considering two years ago this squad was 19-63 for the entire season.

The Suns are playing at a deliberate pace with only the Knicks seeing fewer possessions per 48 minutes. Brooklyn plays at one of the fastest paces in the league, and defense is usually optional. Phoenix has an implied team total slightly north of 117 points, which is half a dozen points more than their season average. Paul is averaging 1.15 Yahoo fantasy points per minute and does not have to play again until Friday, which bodes well for his workload in our late-night hammer.

LeBron James: Los Angeles Lakers at Minnesota Timberwolves

• Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 56.26 | DraftKings: 60.37

• Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 31.4% | FanDuel 29.1% | DraftKings 30.5%

• DFS Salary: Yahoo $48 | FanDuel $10,500 | DraftKings $10,100

Anthony Davis was dealing with Achilles tendinosis in his right leg, and on Sunday night he strained his right calf in Denver against the Nuggets. LeBron Davis will be carrying the load into March, as Davis does not have timetable yet for his return. Using NBA WOWY, we can see that this season LeBron is averaging 1.39 Yahoo fantasy points per minute. When Davis is off the court, he sees an increase in his usage rate as well as his assist rate. In 1,497 regular season minutes without Davis on the court since he joined Los Angeles, James is averaging 1.53 Yahoo fantasy points per minute. While the Lakers are unlikely to run James into the ground, he is going to be a nightly triple-double threat.

Jonas Valanciunas: Memphis Grizzlies vs. New Orleans Pelicans

• Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 38.14 | DraftKings: 39

• Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 9.2% | FanDuel 6.3% | DraftKings 9.4%

• DFS Salary: Yahoo $31 | FanDuel $7,800 | DraftKings $7,600

In his four games since rejoining the starting lineup after his bout with COVID-19, Jonas Valanciunas has been excellent. In these games he is averaging 30.3 minutes, with 21.5 points, 14.0 rebounds, 3.3 assists and 1.0 combined blocks/steals. This also includes two games where Memphis was winning handily and he lost out on 3 to 4 fourth quarter minutes. Memphis is favored by a bucket against the Pelicans, and this game has a projected point total of 230.5 points. The Grizzlies are going to need Valanciunas out on the court doing battle in the paint with Steven Adams and Zion Williamson, which should give him ample opportunity to product a nice fantasy stat line.

Good Value

Talen Horton-Tucker: Los Angeles Lakers at Minnesota Timberwolves

• Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 29.85 | DraftKings: 26.15

• Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 35.0% | FanDuel 28.3% | DraftKings 22.2%

• DFS Salary: Yahoo $12 | FanDuel $4,800 | DraftKings $4,400

Tonight will mark the 31st time that Talen Horton-Tucker sees action in an NBA game. With Anthony Davis out and his current salary not yet being fully adjusted for an increased workload, it is a good time to consider Horton-Tucker. This season he is averaging 0.9 fantasy points per minute in 17.0 minutes of playing time, mostly in mop-up duty. Kyle Kuzma will likely draw the start, with Horton-Tucker, Montrezl Harrell and Markieff Morris seeing some increased minutes as well in filling the void left by Davis. Los Angeles is favored by 6.5 in Minnesota tonight, so there is a chance that the youngster may get increased minutes in mop-up duty.

Justin Jackson: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Portland Trail Blazers

• Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 25.36 | DraftKings: 26.19

• Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 20.0% | FanDuel 5.5% | DraftKings 20.7%

• DFS Salary: Yahoo $12 | FanDuel $5,300 | DraftKings $4,700

Justin Jackson is coming off of two of the better games in his career. After dropping 20 points in Denver on Friday, he was inserted into the starting lineup Sunday and had 22 points. The Thunder are short-handed without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, George Hill and Theo Maledon. This has opened the door for Jackson, who is on his third team in four years after being the 15th overall selection in the 2017 NBA Draft. While he doesn’t do much via peripherals, the salary and matchup with Portland help mitigate some of the risk.

Over their last 15 games, the Blazers have the sixth-worst defensive efficiency rating in the league. They are allowing 116.4 points per 100 possessions, and this game should be a track meet. On FanDuel it may be better to pivot to players that offer more steals/blocks upside, as those categories are well rewarded there.

Risky Value

Michael Porter Jr.: Denver Nuggets at Boston Celtics

• Awesemo’s Preliminary Point Projections: Yahoo and FanDuel: 35.01 | DraftKings: 34.9

• Awesemo’s Preliminary Rostered Projections: Yahoo 21.0% | FanDuel 40.0% | DraftKings 31.1%

• DFS Salary: Yahoo $23 | FanDuel $5,500 | DraftKings $5,800

On Sunday, Michael Porter Jr. was in this section as a risky play against the Lakers. The matchup against Boston is going to be easier, though we are seeing surging popularity again with the Denver youngster. In your “cash games” (aka head-to-heads, 50/50s, double-ups, 3-1 mans) Porter is a fine play for his matchup and what should be a secure 30 to 32 minutes, with Paul Millsap, Will Barton, Gary Harris and P.J. Dozier all likely to be out tonight. However, in tournaments where a player is garnering this much interest, we need to look at the tipping point for the risk/reward ratio.

Looking at the Awesemo Boom/Bust tool, we can see the Porter has a 32.1% chance of being in the optimal lineup. This is also the second-highest mark on the slate, behind LeBron, who is at an eye-popping 41.5%. His “boom” score of 5x his salary + 10 (39 DraftKings points) has a 33.4% chance of hitting. For his “bust” score of 5x his salary (29 DraftKings points), there is a 27.1% chance of him failing to reach this threshold.

In 55 games last year, he scored more than 40 DraftKings points six times, including four times in the Orlando bubble. This year he has topped that milestone in three of his 15 games.

Yahoo Daily Fantasy Basketball Discount Dandies

1. JaMychal Green and Monte Morris (QUES-shoulder): DEN at BOS – $10

2. Isaiah Roby: OKC vs. POR – $10

3. Kyle Kuzma: LAL at MIN – $15

SuperDraft Daily Fantasy Basketball Picks

1. Damian Lillard: POR at OKC – 1.20x multiplier

2. Al Horford: OKC vs. POR – 1.50x multiplier

3. Enes Kanter: POR at OKC – 1.80x multiplier

Final Thoughts on the Tuesday, Feb. 16 NBA DFS Slate

Five of the six games tonight all tip off within the first hour, so we should have most of the news. Keep in mind that salaries and scoring formats differ across the various fantasy sites, and a slam-dunk play on Yahoo may be a below-average NBA DFS pick on DraftKings or FanDuel.

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