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NBA DFS: Are you ready to pay up for a big-time player?

ariel epstein
Betting analyst
·2 min read

When looking at the NBA board, I like to target defenses that have been bad all season and I specifically like to check their last 10 games. Has their performance gotten worse? Has it gotten better? If the answer is worse, that's where I look to attack in daily fantasy.

Here are my top plays for Wednesday's slate.

$45 ATL PG Trae Young vs. CHA

I don't typically like to play pricey players like this, however, Trae Young should dominate Charlotte. The Hornets are the third-worst defense in the NBA, allowing 114.9 points per game. Since March 1, Young is averaging 32 points, 3.8 rebounds and 9.8 assists. In the last 10 games against Charlotte, point guards are averaging 25.4 points and 7.1 assists. The matchup should be well worth the price for Young.

Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young (11) points during the first half of an NBA basketball game against the Indiana Pacers Sunday, March 13, 2022, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/Hakim Wright Sr.)
Hawks guard Trae Young isn't cheap but he could pay off on Wednesday's NBA slate. (AP Photo/Hakim Wright Sr.)

$33 CHA SG Terry Rozier vs. ATL

If you like to stack your lineups, Hornets shooting guard Terry Rozier is a good option in this spot. He's averaging 25.6 points since the All-Star break. The Hawks' defense has also been struggling as a bottom-10 unit. Atlanta has allowed six of the last 10 shooting guards it has faced to put up 20 or more points. The price might seem like a lot for Rozier, but the matchup is worth noting if you have the cash to spend.

$29 NYK SF/SG RJ Barrett vs. POR

As mentioned, I love looking for bottom-10 defenses that are performing even worse than their overall average. The Blazers allow the fifth-most points per game at 113.6. That number has gone up to 122.4 in their last 10. The Blazers have struggled against small forwards and shooting guards, too, allowing both positions to average over 20 points in their last 10 games. With RJ Barrett putting up 26.4 points, 6.3 rebounds and 4.2 assists since the All-Star break, the matchup should set up for a big Barrett night.

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$20 GSW SG Jordan Poole vs. BOS

If you've been following my NBA content all year, you'd know by now that my most random and profitable trend is shooting guards vs. Boston. The last 10 shooting guards have averaged 20.1 points per game against the Celtics. Jordan Poole has been on fire and is a great value at $20. He's putting up 24.1 points per game in his last seven. I also love that he didn't play in the first matchup between the Warriors and Celtics. He's a new piece Golden State can use to throw off Boston at a position that has thrown them off all season.