NASCAR playoff picture: Who's in, who's on bubble and who must win regular-season finale

The NASCAR Cup Series postseason inches ever closer, and now there is just one playoff berth up for grabs.

One race remains until the 10-race playoffs begin on Sept. 3 at Darlington Raceway, which means there is only one chance left for a winless driver to lock up the last remaining spot. Sixteen drivers will make the playoffs, and 15 berths have now been claimed following Sunday's race at Watkins Glen – won by William Byron.

It truly has become a win-and-you're-in scenario now, but a driver could still point his way into the playoffs. If there is no new winner next weekend in the regular-season finale at Daytona International Speedway, then the last playoff berth would go to the top winless driver with the most points in the standings.

Two former Cup champions – Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski – clinched their playoff spots on Sunday at Watkins Glen, despite being winless this season.

A look at what's next, who’s already in, who’s on the bubble and who needs a win to have a shot to race for the 2023 championship:

The remaining regular-season race

■ Saturday, Aug. 26: Daytona International Speedway (2.5-mile oval)

• Most recent winners: Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (Feb. 19, 2023); Austin Dillon (Aug. 28, 2022)

Drivers who have clinched playoff berths

These are the 15 drivers who have locked up their spots (with regular-season points and playoff points in parentheses).

1. William Byron, Hendrick Motorsports — 5 wins (785 overall points, 28 playoff points)

2. *Martin Truex Jr., Joe Gibbs Racing — 3 wins (861, 20)

3. *Kyle Busch, Richard Childress Racing — 3 wins (688, 17)

4. Denny Hamlin, Joe Gibbs Racing — 2 wins (822, 15)

5. *Kyle Larson, Hendrick Motorsports — 2 wins (721, 13)

6. Chris Buescher, RFK Racing — 2 wins (695, 11)

7. Ross Chastain, Trackhouse Racing — 1 win (695, 10)

8. Tyler Reddick, 23XI Racing — 1 win (683, 9)

9. Ryan Blaney, Team Penske — 1 win (694, 8)

10. *Joey Logano, Team Penske — 1 win (666, 8)

11. Christopher Bell, Joe Gibbs Racing — 1 win (752, 7)

12. Michael McDowell, Front Row Motorsports — 1 win (553, 7)

13. Ricky Stenhouse Jr., JTG Daugherty Racing — 1 win (566, 5)

14. *Brad Keselowski, RFK Racing — 0 wins (697, 3)

15. *Kevin Harvick, Stewart-Haas Racing — 0 wins (693, 1)

*-Truex (2017), Busch (2015, 2019), Larson (2021), Logano (2018, 2022), Keselowski (2012) and Harvick (2014) have all won championships.

Drivers on the playoff bubble

These drivers have not won a race this season but one of them could secure the final playoff berth on points if a winless driver does not take the checkered flag at Daytona.

■ 16. Bubba Wallace, 23XI Racing (590 points, 0 playoff points) — A race winner each of the last two seasons, Wallace sits 32 points above the cut line and is in prime position to make the playoffs for the first time.

■ 17. Ty Gibbs, Joe Gibbs Racing (558, 0) — The top rookie this season, Gibbs is 32 points below the cut line and has tallied six top-10 finishes this year.

■ 18. Daniel Suarez, Trackhouse Racing (547, 0) — A playoff driver last season, Suarez's lone Cup Series win has come on a road course – at Sonoma in 2022. He currently sits 43 points below the cut line but could be strong position to make a move following his third-place finish at Indianapolis Motor Speedway and one more road-course race on the schedule.

Notable drivers who can only make playoffs with a win

■ 19. AJ Allmendinger, Kaulig Racing (518, 0) — The veteran racer's two best chances probably came in the prevous two weeks – on the road courses at Indianapolis and Watkins Glen. Allmendinger sits 72 points below the cut line, and now the road-course ace will try to shock the field and win on an oval.

■ 20. Alex Bowman, Hendrick Motorsports (494, 0) — A playoff driver in each of the past five years, it may seem surprising to see Bowman so low in the standings, though he did miss three races this season while recovering from an injury. He currently sits 96 points below the cut line.

■ 21. Chase Elliott, Hendrick Motorsports (489, 1) — While it might seem shocking to see the 2020 champion here, Elliott's position is due in part to missing seven races this season (six for injury, one for a suspension). NASCAR's most popular driver sits 101 points below the cut line.

■ 22. Austin Cindric, Team Penske (476 points, 1 playoff point) — Sitting 114 points below the cut line, Cindric has not been to victory lane since the opening the 2022 season by winning the Daytona 500. But with the regular-season finale also at Daytona, Cindric remains a threat to pull off a win.

■ 25. Aric Almirola, Stewart-Haas Racing (413, 1) — Sitting 177 points below the cut line, Almirola, who has made the playoffs five times, has not been to victory lane since the summer 2021 race at New Hampshire, but one of his three career wins has come at Daytona.

■ 28. Erik Jones, Legacy Motor Club (375, 0) — Sitting 215 points below the cut line, Jones last won the 2022 playoff opener at Darlington, though he was not a playoff driver.

■ 29. Austin Dillon, Richard Childress Racing (369, 0) — Sitting 221 points below the cut line, Dillon seeks to repeat his feat from last season when he won the regular-season finale at Daytona to make the playoffs.

■ 31. Chase Briscoe, Stewart-Haas Racing (324, 0) — Sitting 266 points below the cut line, Briscoe, a playoff driver last season, has not won since the March 13, 2022 race at Phoenix.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NASCAR playoff drivers: Who's in, who's on bubble after Watkins Glen