NASCAR Odds, Sonoma: Chase Elliott no longer the Road Warrior; Tyler Reddick is king
Third boxcar, midnight train
Destination Bangor, Maine
Now, with that classic diddy worming through your brain, let’s make it official and introduce Tyler Reddick, NASCAR’s new King of the Road.
For a few years there, it was Chase Elliott humming that tune, generally dominating road-course races and either winning or falling victim to life's circumstances.
That reign didn’t end a year ago, but it was a year ago when we saw the beginning of the end. It was Sonoma 2022 when Reddick spun, lost a bunch of laps and finished 35th out of 36. The culprit: Broken brake rotor.
Since that afternoon, Reddick’s finishes in five road-course starts: 1, 1, 7, 8, 1 — that last win came in this season’s first roadie, at Austin.
A year ago, Chase was eighth at Sonoma, then went 2, 16, 4 and 20 the rest of the year on road courses, and missed the Austin race this year while holed up in the ski lodge telling war stories.
All of this explains why we’re approaching a road-course weekend and Chase Elliott isn’t sitting atop the odds. That might be a little culture shock for some, but frankly, some of the guys down around the middle of the odds seem even more surprising.
Let’s take a look.
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It’s not like Chase took a tumble
Tyler Reddick +450, Kyle Larson +500, Chase Elliott +500
Remember the mention of Reddick’s broken brake rotor last year at Sonoma? Well, guess what doomed him just last week at St. Louis. Yep, broken brake rotor. Well, now that he’s got that out of the way …
Isn’t Ross Chastain in a slump?
William Byron +850, Ross Chastain +900, Kyle Busch +900
To win at Sonoma, a driver has to navigate 1,320 turns — more, if there’s overtime. Not sure if Ross The Boss is ready to do that just yet, so he probably should be a bit lower here.
Is that Martin Truex sitting there at +3,000?
Daniel Suarez +1,600, AJ Allmendinger +1,600, Austin Cindric +1,800, Chris Buescher +2,000, Kevin Harvick +2,500, Christopher Bell +2,500, Alex Bowman +2,800, Martin Truex +3,000, Ryan Blaney +3,500, Joey Logano +3,500
Let’s look at NASCAR’s two longest-running current road courses — Watkins Glen and Sonoma. Throwing out last year, when Truex was basically lost, Truex’s last four finishes at the Glen was 1, 2, 2, 3. Last four at Sonoma: 37, 1, 1, 3. Yes, we also have to throw out that 37th.
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“Denny Hamlin. Paging Denny Hamlin …”
Denny Hamlin +4,000, Michael McDowell +4,500, Bubba Wallace +10,000
There’s Denny, way down here alongside Michael McDowell. Goodness. He has no wins, but over the past three-plus years, Hamlin has the sixth-best average finish on road courses. Bargain hunting?
Prop options for Sonoma
Here are the basic prop bets on an app like DraftKings.
They list several driver-vs-driver matchups, such as this week’s most intriguing prop — Ross Chastain vs. Chase Elliott. Ross pays +125, so if we put our weekly $50 prop budget on The Boss and he wins, we net $62.50. Chase, at -165, only nets you about $30 by beating Ross.
You can bet on a manufacturer if you choose. Chevy drivers are listed at -165, Toyota at +300 and Ford +350. Reddick is in a Toyota, as is Truex, Hamlin and Christopher Bell. And honestly, Ryan Blaney and Austin Cindric, in Fords, aren’t the worst Blue Ovals to bank upon.
But I’m a sucker for top-10 props, and this week, DraftKings has Denny Hamlin at +550 simply for a top 10. That’s $550 for a $100 wager, and by my math, that means roughly $275 for a $50 gamble.
Last week
I was right friggin’ there! I swear. I had Ryan Blaney to win and he was in the mix late.
I had Bubba for a top 10, which seemed like a no-brainer, until he went from 10th to 11th with several laps to go — no big deal, there’s time to make that up — and then he joined the Broken Brake Rotor Convention and took my $50 prop bet to the landfill.
Another week, another quiet ride home for this guy.
This week
No doubt, this slump will end and will end soon. And maybe, just maybe, in a way that pays the bills.
For starters, no, Martin Truex wouldn’t be my first choice if picking a winner this week. But the guys who’d go before him just aren’t paying anything. So at +3,000, meaning $50 brings $1,500, I’m going with the Marty Party.
As for the prop, I hesitate but will go with Hamlin at +550 for a top 10. He sorta stinks at road courses, but you gotta figure he can ho-hum his way to eighth or ninth, right? Yeah, that’s what I thought.
This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: NASCAR Odds, Sonoma: Chase Elliott not favored? Tyler Reddick new king
