NASCAR odds for Atlanta: After Chicago, don't expect normal; Kyle Larson 5th on the board?
Well, now, after Chicago and all the hoopla, we can get back to normal, right?
Well …
Hampton Motor Speedway, otherwise known by its big-city name of Atlanta Motor Speedway, was once as pure NASCAR as you could get. A fast oval (of sorts) in a North Georgia region where some of the stock-car founding fathers once roamed and ruled.
Atlanta became a “plate race” (but not really a plate-race) last year, with rules designed, like at Daytona and Talladega, to slow the cars and as a side effect equalize the field.
Corey LaJoie has had a pair of top-fives at Atlanta in the past three plate-races there. The one time he finished outside the top five, he led 19 laps, including seven of the last nine, before being bum-rushed and kicked to the curb in favor of Chase Elliott.
Less than four months ago, NASCAR raced at Atlanta. Among the unusual multiple-lap leaders: Brad Keselowski (47), Austin Cindric (5), Ricky Stenhouse (7), Aric Almirola (17!), and Chris Buescher (5).
So, as Dick Nixon (or was it Otis Nixon?) would say, “I say all that to say this …”
We’re ripe for a longshot win.
Let’s go to the board.
CHICAGO? NOPE Chicago was NASCAR's first street race? They're forgetting something | HEY, WILLIE!
The Faves: Chase Elliott, OK; but Ryan Blaney?
Kyle Busch +1,000; Chase Elliott +1,100; Ryan Blaney +1,200; Joey Logano +1,200
After a great run from late spring and into early summer, Ryan Blaney has hit the wall. And not just figuratively. His last three finishes: 31st, 36th, 33rd.
NASCAR QNA Shane van Gisbergen will return someday; Chicago should also be back next year
Have we soured on Kyle Larson?
All at +1,400: William Byron; Denny Hamlin; Brad Keselowski; Kyle Larson
You know the routine: Another week, another Kyle Larson position atop the odds board. What, four guys ahead of him? You’d think he was planning to show up in an ox cart.
Turn out the lights, the Marty Party is over (for this week)
Ross The Boss Chastain +1,600; Christopher Bell +1,600; Chris Buescher +2,000; Martin Truex +2,200; Bubba Wallace +2,200; Austin Cindric +2,200
Truex way down here? Well, you know how he’s 0-for-life at plate-races? In three plate-races at Atlanta, his best is an eighth. He must be claustrophobic.
Shhhh, sleepers are sleeping
Tyler Reddick +2,500; Ty Gibbs +2,800; Ricky Stenhouse +2,800; Kevin Harvick +2,800; Erik (With a K) Jones +3,000; Aric (With an A) Almirola +3,000
There are some decent plate-racers among these hot-rodders. Just thought I’d drop that in here.
Corey dumps the back-markers
Daniel Suarez +3,500; Corey LaJoie +3,500; Michael McDowell +4,000; Austin Dillon +4,000; AJ Allmendinger +4,000
Where else would Corey LaJoie not be lumped in among the bottom six or eight on the board? Well, Daytona and Talladega, maybe, but he has a track record at Atlanta.
Prop ’em up
You know the deal. We (and by we, I mean me) spend $50 on picking a winner, but the other $50 dives into a prop bet.
This week, the DraftKings props offer the usuals, but all of the usuals aren’t all that usual.
But let’s start with some usuals.
Driver vs. Driver: Among the handful of head-to-heads, we have Chase Elliott-Joey Logano, Kyle Busch-Brad Keselowski, Denny Hamlin-Ryan Blaney. All are either even-money or nearly ’bout. To me, Kyle-Brad is most interesting, because you won’t likely get these two head-to-head anywhere this year but a plate-race.
At these types of races, I’m no fan of driver matchups, because there’s way more possibility of “Trouble in Turn 3!” and an early attachment to the hook.
Top Five: A couple of top-five props caught the eye. Bubba Wallace is +350 for a fifth-or-better finish, while AJ Allmendinger is +650. These are two drivers comfy in this kind of pack-racin’.
Nameplates: In the weekly manufacturer odds, Ford isn’t so hated this week. Of course, Chevy, with the Hendrick squad and a few other front-packers on payroll, remains the weekly favorite at +115, but this week Ford is next at +140, while it’s Toyota down there at +350.
Man, that Toyota bet is tempting.
Last week
At least I mentioned Shane van Gisbergen as a potential ringer who could make some noise. Didn’t bet on him, but then again, who did?
I went with Chris Buesher for the win and propped on Ford, Buescher’s nameplate, for the manufacturer win.
Buescher got his eighth top-10 of the year, but that was it — 10th. And van Gisbergen, damn him, was driving a Chevy.
This week
Conventional wisdom and educated guesses do you no good at plate-races, so maybe I have some hope, right?
Right!
Yeah, yeah, this is another chance for a longshot, but my buddy Mr. Hunch has been touting Chase Elliott for a win at his “home” track for a few weeks now, so why ditch him? The $50 on Chase, at +1,100, would net $550, and by my math, with $550 you could buy 157 Bully Burgers at the Dawsonville Pool Room up the road from Chase’s house.
Pro tip: Buy 150 instead so you can leave a nice tip for Olive.
The $50 prop was originally ticketed for AJ Allmendinger and a top-five finish, at +650. But then some reconsideration said, no, take a slightly safer route with Bubba Wallace at +350 for a top-five.
At the end, I ditched both and decided on Martin Truex for a top-five at +330. Nope, he never wins plate-races, but he often comes close. That’d pay $165, and that’ll help pay the rent until next week in New Hampshire.
This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: NASCAR odds, Atlanta: Chase Elliott tops Kyle Larson on the odds board
