NASCAR Best Bets: Toyota Owners 400
The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Richmond Raceway for another round of short track racing with the running of the Toyota Owners 400 on Easter Sunday (7:00 p.m. ET on FOX). This is the first of two trips to "The Action Track," which has seen seven different winners in the last seven races.
We are only a few weeks removed from the last race on a short, flat track (Phoenix). Toyota took the entire field to school, and Joe Gibbs Racing profiles to be strong once again in Virginia. Denny Hamlin (+425), Christopher Bell (+425), Martin Truex Jr. (+600) and Ty Gibbs (+850) lead the way in the outright market.
Here is who I have my eye on pre-practice and qualifying at Richmond (odds as of Wednesday, March 27).
Ty Gibbs (+850)
Gibbs has done everything but win so far in 2024, and his average finish of 7.8 is best in the series through six races. He arguably had the fastest car at Bristol and posted a third-place effort at Phoenix.
There's no reason to believe Gibbs can't get it done this weekend as he continues his sophomore surge. Shop around for your best price, but even at +850 I am interested in a driver who has been knocking on the door for weeks.
Read More: Ty Gibbs Tops Power Rankings
William Byron (+1100)
We hit on Byron last week at COTA, and he became the first driver to win multiple races in 2024. Because the Toyotas are such heavy favorites, we are getting value on Byron who was a top-three contender in this race last year before getting spun out by Christopher Bell with 20 laps to go. In 2022, Byron finished this race third while leading 122 laps.
If there is any team that is going to go toe-to-toe with Toyota, it is the No. 24 camp. Byron continues to be one of the best in the Next Gen car, and I will ride with him especially with an average starting position of 3.75 in the last four Richmond races.
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Tyler Reddick (+1600)
23XI Racing deserves the same respect as Joe Gibbs this weekend, and we are once again getting a favorable number for Reddick who started both Richmond races in 2023 inside the top five, including a pole in the summer.
Reddick was a top-three performer here in the summer before a pit road penalty late in the race stripped away his promising day. This price is too long for a driver capable of being a contender for the win.
Martin Truex Jr. Top 5 (+120)
We are getting the series points leader at plus money to finish in the Top Five at Richmond. MTJ has been superb here, winning three of the last nine and posting six Top Five finishes in that span. At Phoenix, he fought hard for a seventh-place result and has finished Top 10 in every race since. Truex will once again be a factor to win, so I will take a plus money Top Five all day.
Joey Logano Top 10 (+120)
It has been a season to forget for Logano who finds himself 22nd in points with only one Top 10 through six races. Despite the lackluster results, I view Richmond as a get-right spot for the two-time series champion, who has finished in the Top 10 in three consecutive Richmond races. I believe this line is too long for a driver of his caliber, so make sure you shop around to get it at plus money while you can.
Ryan Preece Top Ford (+2500)
If you are looking to throw a little lunch money on a longshot driver, Ryan Preece is someone that I believe has the potential to finish as the Top Ford in this race. The No. 41 brought legit speed in the last trip to Richmond, finishing the race fifth with an average running position of 8.2. While it will be difficult to overtake the likes of the RFK Racing Fords, Preece is known for his short track prowess, and if we get some late race chaos, this could very well be in play.
A safer option would be to play his Top 10 prop (+350) which I am not opposed to either.
Enjoy the race and Happy Easter.
