Monday Measure: Did Dan Lanning make the right decisions in Oregon's loss to Washington?
Oregon coach Dan Lanning took all the blame after his team’s 36-33 loss to Washington.
“I think this game is 100% on me,” Lanning said in his postgame news conference. "I don’t think you guys have to look anywhere else besides me.”
The Ducks went for it three times on fourth down and failed to convert all three of those attempts. Two came inside Washington’s 10-yard line, while the final fourth-down effort set up Washington’s game-winning touchdown.
While none of the decisions worked out, there were good reasons for Lanning to have his team be aggressive on those fourth downs. Let’s go through them all.
Fourth-and-goal at Washington 3 (second quarter)
After Jahlil Florence intercepted Michael Penix Jr. at midfield with 55 seconds left in the second quarter, Oregon had a chance to take a lead into halftime.
The Ducks trailed 22-18 and that four-point deficit is significant. Oregon would be trailing if it kicked a field goal before halftime and Lanning knew Washington would be kicking off to start the third quarter. A go-ahead TD could have helped Oregon get a two-score lead if it was able to get a touchdown to start the second half.
Bo Nix completed a pass to Tez Johnson to the Washington 3 on second down and left the Ducks two downs to get a TD before halftime. After a third-down pass fell incomplete with six seconds left, Oregon could have taken a chip-shot field goal from a tight angle on the left hash or go for the lead.
Lanning chose to have his team go for the lead. The play call was a sprint to the right for Nix and no one was open in the end zone.
“We felt that was an opportunity for us to get a touchdown and a touchdown changes the game and obviously we’re probably not talking about it if we get a touchdown,” Lanning said of both red-zone fourth-down calls. “That said, the one before half is one where you could really go back and say let’s take that field goal and it’s something I’m going to assess, go evaluate for me.”
Fourth-and-3 at Washington 8 (third quarter)
After punting on its first drive of the third quarter, Oregon got the ball back trailing by 11 after Washington scored a TD. The Ducks went on a patient drive that took over seven minutes and found themselves facing another fourth-and-short inside the Washington 10.
The decision to go for it made sense. Washington would be forced to deal with a long field if Oregon didn’t convert and a field goal only cut the lead to eight. And with a Huskies team that had scored four TDs on its last five possessions, Oregon was at risk of going down two touchdowns even if it kicked the field goal.
The play came close to working, too. Nix saw he had Franklin in single coverage to his left and intentionally threw it behind Franklin so that he could stop quickly and make the catch to set up a first and goal. And while the throw was a little low, the ball went through Franklin’s hands and fell incomplete.
“You take one of those field goals early on and we are probably looking at a little bit different situation,” Lanning said.
Fourth-and-3 at Washington 47 (fourth quarter)
The fourth-down decision that most will remember came with 2:11 to go. Oregon, leading 33-29, wasn’t in field goal range and a kick to extend the lead to seven was out of the question. A punt could pin Washington deep, but it also ran the risk of a touchback and a gain of just 27 yards of field position.
The Oregon offense was humming, too. The Ducks had scored TDs on each of its two drives since that second failed fourth down. With Washington’s offense showing it can strike from nearly anywhere on the field, going for it also made sense.
A first down would have forced Washington to use its timeouts and drained more time off the clock, while a failed conversion offered Oregon the opportunity to get the ball back with more time remaining if Washington scored quickly.
Much like with the first fourth-down attempt, the biggest quibble with the decision to go for it is the play call. Lanning noted after the game that Oregon liked the looks it got from Washington on each of the attempts. But the decision to roll Nix — a right-handed QB — to his left was a curious one. Washington covered it well and Nix never got his feet set before throwing an incomplete pass.
"We felt like our defense was playing well. We felt like we had an offensive play that was going to be successful," Lanning said. "They covered it well. But at that point, they’d proven to be an explosive offense regardless of where they get the ball."
Of course, that's exactly how it played out. And Washington’s go-ahead TD left Oregon plenty of time to get in position for the game-tying field goal that ultimately sailed wide.
- Nick Bromberg
Perspective on Colorado's collapse vs. Stanford
Deion Sanders and Colorado suffered a devastating loss on Friday night.
Colorado had a 29-0 halftime lead over Stanford, only to allow the Cardinal to mount one of the biggest comebacks in Pac-12 history. The Buffaloes took their foot off the gas and Stanford took full advantage, outscoring CU 36-7 in the second half to send the game to overtime. From there, Stanford won 46-43 in double-overtime.
With an embarrassing loss like that and all of the glitz and glamor that surrounds Sanders and his program, it’s easy to lose sight of the bigger picture. Sanders inherited a program that went 1-11 last season and was the worst Power Five team in the country by a significant margin.
The fact that the Buffs are sitting at 4-3 and remain one of the biggest stories in the sport entering their bye week represents a substantial step forward for Colorado.
Sanders made headlines not only for his complete roster overhaul of 70-plus players, but for documenting it on social media every step of the way. He brought some tremendous talent to Boulder. Travis Hunter is one of the best talents in the sport, and Shedeur Sanders, Deion’s son, is an ascending quarterback talent.
But there are still major holes all over this roster. Beyond Hunter, Sanders and a few others, this roster is largely made up of castoffs from other Power Five programs and players transferring up from lower levels. That includes Group of Five, junior college and FCS transfers. Some of them have been hits out of the transfer portal, but when you’re bringing in such a large quantity of transfers there are going to be some misses, too.
The talent along both lines of scrimmage — particularly the offensive line — is especially lacking. Having a realistic shot at a bowl game with this roster is evidence that Sanders is succeeding so far.
Sanders is going to bring in more talent via the transfer portal and high school recruiting. His in-game decision-making has raised eyebrows at times (he’s been curiously conservative on fourth down and has twice elected to take the ball first in overtime), but there is very little doubt about his ability to acquire talent and motivate and develop his players.
Stanford entered Folsom Field with just one win, so Colorado's loss was a pretty serious blow to its bowl hopes. Sanders will be tasked with keeping his team mentally focused in the weeks ahead. And with road games vs. No. 25 UCLA, Washington State and No. 14 Utah, plus home games vs. No. 12 Oregon State and Arizona, the rest of this season could be rough.
But the long-term prognosis for the Buffs under Sanders’ guidance is still positive.
- Sam Cooper
