Monday Measure: After firings at Texas A&M, Boise State and Mississippi State, who's next?
The coaching carousel is already spinning, and there are plenty of seats that are heating up.
Welcome to silly season.
With the college football regular season winding down, the coaching carousel is about to ramp up in a big way. Michigan State and Northwestern already had openings amid tumultuous circumstances from earlier in the year, and then a major domino fell Sunday morning when Texas A&M fired Jimbo Fisher.
We also saw Boise State move on from Andy Avalos on Sunday and Mississippi State dismiss Zach Arnett after just 11 games on Monday, but the decision at Texas A&M — which has one of the country’s highest-paying jobs — could ignite a flurry of moves over the coming weeks.
Who could be next? Here are some names to keep an eye on.
Tom Allen, Indiana
Indiana is a tough place to win at and Tom Allen has done an admirable job, but it could be time for a change even though the Hoosiers have been playing better lately. IU had Penn State on the ropes, beat Wisconsin and then lost to Illinois in overtime. But when just being competitive is a marker of progress in Year 7, it’s not a great sign.
Indiana, which allowed 507 passing yards to Illinois’ backup QB on Saturday, is now 3-7 and will miss a bowl game for the third consecutive season. Since going a combined 14-7 in 2019 and 2020, the Hoosiers are 9-25 overall with a 3-22 record in Big Ten play in the three seasons since. The one thing working in Allen’s favor is his $20 million buyout. Would a school more interested in basketball pay such a hefty fee to fire a football coach?
Dave Aranda, Baylor
Dave Aranda led Baylor to a Big 12 championship in his second season but is 9-14 (6-10 Big 12) in the two seasons since. The Bears closed out the 2022 season with four consecutive losses and are now 3-7 in 2023. The Bears have lost eight consecutive home games vs. FBS competition, including an embarrassing Week 1 loss to Texas State. Later on, BU got blown out at home by Texas and Texas Tech. There was also an overtime loss to Houston.
Aranda made his name in the coaching profession for being one of the nation’s top defensive coordinators, but this year’s Baylor team has one of the worst defenses in the Big 12 and the offense has been plagued by turnovers and inconsistency. Aranda is 23-22 across his four seasons and has BU trending in the wrong direction.
Dino Babers, Syracuse
Now in Year 8, Dino Babers keeps chugging along at Syracuse. The Orange had a breakthrough 10-win season back in 2018 but have largely struggled since then. Syracuse made just its second bowl appearance of Babers’ tenure last season, but it was a season that featured a 6-0 start and a 1-6 finish. This season has followed a similar path.
The Orange won their first four, lost their next five and then snapped that losing streak with a win over Pitt on Saturday. The Orange are 5-5 with two winnable games left. Would a bowl berth be good enough for Babers to be retained? He’s 41-54 overall and 20-44 in ACC play.
Neal Brown, West Virginia
Neal Brown seemed to lead every offseason hot-seat list, but he may have afforded himself some more time at West Virginia. After being picked to finish last in the preseason Big 12 poll, the Mountaineers are 6-4 (and one of those losses came on a Hail Mary) with winnable games vs. Cincinnati and Baylor remaining, plus a bowl game. Brown wasn’t able to top the six-win mark in his previous three seasons, so getting to 7-5 or better would serve him well.
Jeff Hafley, Boston College
Like Brown, Jeff Hafley’s hot seat at Boston College seems to have cooled some. The Eagles started the season 1-3 with an ugly home loss to Northern Illinois in the opener. Since then, they have won five of six to sit at 6-4 (3-3 ACC) with two games remaining vs. Pitt and Miami.
Hafley came highly regarded following his time in the NFL and at Ohio State, but he hasn’t been able to elevate BC’s program. The Eagles were mired in mediocrity under Steve Addazio and have continued that path in Hafley’s four seasons. The Eagles went 6-5 in 2020 and 6-6 in 2021 before dropping to 3-9 last fall. This is still a situation worth monitoring.
Dana Holgorsen, Houston
The transition to the Big 12 has been difficult for each of the league's newcomers, so it’s not very surprising that Houston finds itself at 4-6 and fighting for bowl eligibility. At the same time, losing to Rice, getting blown out by TCU, Texas Tech and Kansas State and then losing at home to a bad Cincinnati team is not a good look for Dana Holgorsen.
Holgorsen, now in Year 5, left West Virginia after eight years to take the UH job and had a 7-13 record in his first two seasons. The Cougars then won a combined 20 games in 2021 and 2022, their last two years in the AAC. Houston’s brass has always set high expectations. We’ll see if the administration gives Holgorsen some leeway amid the transition to a tougher conference.
Sam Pittman, Arkansas
Arkansas has really slipped this season. The Razorbacks won nine games in 2021 and then went 7-6 last fall but are currently 3-7 with some really ugly results. Arkansas lost at home to a bad BYU team and then dropped its first five SEC games, leading Sam Pittman to fire first-year offensive coordinator Dan Enos.
Arkansas posted a road win over Florida after Enos’ dismissal, but followed that up with a horrific 48-10 home loss to Auburn on Saturday. The Razorbacks should get back in the win column when they host FIU next weekend and then the season concludes at home vs. No. 14 Missouri.
The program was in a brutal place when Pittman arrived. In fact, a 20-game conference losing streak was snapped during Pittman’s first season in charge. Will one bad season overshadow Pittman’s previous efforts and cause the school to make a change?
Group of Five focus
Mike Bloomgren, Rice: Rice has been competitive in its first season in the AAC, but Bloomgren hasn’t won much in his six seasons. The school has a new AD who may be compelled to make a change.
Terry Bowden, UL Monroe: ULM lacks resources and has no history of winning and the 67-year-old Bowden has struggled. Bowden is 10-24 (5-18 Sun Belt) in three seasons.
Sonny Cumbie, Louisiana Tech: The Bulldogs won consistently under Skip Holtz but fired him in favor of Cumbie, who is 6-17 in two seasons. C-USA has been significantly weakened by realignment, but the Bulldogs have lost five straight and are just 2-5 in league play.
Dana Dimel, UTEP: Dimel got the Miners to a bowl in 2021 and just missed out on a sixth win in the last two seasons. This year, UTEP is 3-7 and will miss a bowl again. Dimel is 20-47 in six seasons.
Danny Gonzales, New Mexico: Gonzales has been unable to revive his alma mater. In four seasons, the Lobos are 10-31 overall with a 4-25 mark in Mountain West play.
Brady Hoke, San Diego State: SDSU fell to 3-7 (1-5 MWC) over the weekend and is now guaranteed its first losing season since 2009. The Aztecs were perennial Mountain West contenders under Rocky Long, but have cratered in the fourth and final season under Hoke. The school announced Monday morning that Hoke intends to retire as head coach at the conclusion of the season.
Mike Houston, East Carolina: ECU was in for a rebuilding year after back-to-back winning seasons, but this has been rough. The Pirates are 2-8 overall, bringing Houston’s record to 23-32 in five seasons. Houston won at lower levels, so perhaps some patience would bode well for the ECU brass.
Butch Jones, Arkansas State: The first two seasons for Jones at Arkansas State were bleak, but ASU has shown signs of life this year. At 5-5, the Red Wolves need to win one more game to go bowling.
Ken Wilson, Nevada: Wilson spent more than 20 years at Nevada working as an assistant coach and an athletic administrator and then returned to the school in 2022 as head coach. It hasn’t gone well. Wilson is 4-18 (2-12) in two seasons.
