How Michigan's J.J. McCarthy compares to past 5 Heisman Trophy winners

When the calendar flips to November (as it will Wednesday), it’s time to get serious about Heisman Trophy candidates.

Nobody wins the Heisman in September or October — just ask 2022 Tennessee QB-turned-2023 Detroit Lions third-round draft pick Hendon Hooker — but players do need hot starts over the first two months of the season to set themselves up for a Heisman-clinching final stretch.

Which brings us to Michigan football’s J.J. McCarthy: The junior quarterback has already won over head coach Jim Harbaugh (who says he’s “on path to be the best quarterback in Michigan history”), more than a few writers, and, most importantly (if you’re looking to pick up a bit of holiday cash), the sportsbooks.

That’s despite not playing a whole lot; even McCarthy’s most impressive game, a four-TD shellacking of Michigan State on Oct. 21, saw him play barely 2½ quarters before Harbaugh stepped off the gas pedal (or just shifted gears) in East Lansing. In all, McCarthy has played in the fourth quarter just once (going 4-for-4 for 46 yards vs. Rutgers on Sept. 23) this season — a boost to his reputation but not his numbers.

McCarthy entered Saturday No. 2 among all FBS-level QBs in passing efficiency (199.1), yards per attempt (10.6) and completion percentage (78.1%), but just No. 10 in touchdowns (18), No. 33 in total yards passing (1,799), No. 47 in completions (132) and No. 84 in attempts (169). In short, he passes the eye test, but perhaps not the stats test.

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Here’s how the past five QBs to win the Heisman fared over their first eight games of the season, as well as what they did to lock up the hardware in November and early December.

2022: Caleb Williams, USC

The windup: In his first year with the Trojans after following head coach Lincoln Riley from Oklahoma (where he had 21 touchdown passes and four interceptions as a true freshman), Williams had an up-and-down start despite USC’s 6-0 open — successes against putrid Stanford and Arizona State and struggles against Oregon State and Washington State. Still, Williams announced his Heisman candidacy with back-to-back five-TD games against Utah (in a loss) and Arizona (in a win) in late October. Williams’ first eight games featured a 64.7% completion percentage, 2,382 yards, 24 touchdowns and one interception, for a 165.6 rating.

The finish: Williams’ per-game TD totals steadily decreased across his final four games — from four against Cal to one against Notre Dame — but the Trojans kept winning to grab a spot in the Pac-12 title game and a rematch with Utah. Williams completed 68.3% of his passes in another loss to the Utes, but threw for 363 yards, three TDs and one interception. USC’s problem, once again, was a faulty defense and not the play of Williams.

2021: Bryce Young, Alabama

The windup: Young entered his sophomore season with 13 college pass attempts. No matter: His first eight games as the Crimson Tide starter featured a 70% completion rate, 2,453 passing yards, 26 touchdowns and three interceptions. He passed the “big game test,” making up for a loss to Texas A&M (in which he threw for 369 yards, three TDs and a pick) with near-perfect October routs of Mississippi State and Tennessee. Against the Bulldogs and Vols, he completed 51 of 71 passes (71.8%) for 719 yards, six TDs and no interceptions to finish his first eight games with a 177.1 rating.

The finish: Young was nearly as good in the Tide’s stretch drive to the SEC title, putting up 17 touchdowns passes and just one interception against a slate that included bowl squads LSU, New Mexico State, Arkansas and Georgia. (It also included a checked-out Auburn squad in the Iron Bowl.) Young delivered the finishing touch with a virtuoso performance in the SEC title game vs. the Bulldogs, the eventual national champs: 26-for-44 for 421 yards and three TDs in a 41-24 thumping to open December.

2019: Joe Burrow, LSU

The windup: The Ohio native’s numbers in 2018, his first year in Baton Rouge after three seasons with Ohio State, were good — 2,894 yards, 16 TDs, five picks — but hardly preparation for his historic senior season. Indeed, he quickly topped his 2018 season in the first eight games in 2019: 2,805 yards, 30 TDs, four INTs and completing 78.8% as the Tigers went 8-0 and grabbed the No. 1 spot in the AP poll. Burrow had a ridiculous 204.5 passer rating heading into a November showdown at No. 2 Alabama,

The finish: Burrow completed 31 of 39 attempts (79.5%) against the Tide for 393 yards and three TDs, for a 189.5 rating, in the Tigers’ 46-41 win. Indeed, he barely slowed down against the meat of LSU’s SEC schedule, completing 76.5% of his passes for 1,910 yards, 18 touchdowns and two picks as LSU went 5-0 — with Burrow posting a rating of 185 or better in all five — and won the SEC title with a 37-10 rout of Georgia.

2018: Kyler Murray, Oklahoma

The windup: Murray, entering his junior season, was still considered a better prospect in baseball than football; despite completing 90 of 142 passes for 1,045 yards, eight TDs and seven INTs (and rushing 67 times for 477 yards) in 2015-17 with Texas A&M and Oklahoma, he was drafted by MLB’s Oakland Athletics at No. 9 overall in June 2018. His first eight college football games of 2018 had the A’s wishing they could re-do their pick: a 73.2% completion percentage for 2,329 yards, 28 TDs, three INTs and a 227.3 rating, plus 71 rushes for 474 yards — a 6.7-yard average — and six TDs as the Sooners went 7-1 (the lone loss coming on a field goal by Texas in the final seconds of the Red River Shootout).

The finish: Murray got his revenge on the Longhorns — and a signature moment in his Heisman campaign — in December’s Big 12 title game; he completed 25 of 34 passes for 379 yards and three TDs in the 39-27 win that locked up a CFP berth for the Sooners. Over his final five games before the Heisman vote, Murray completed 68.2% of his passes for 1,724 yards, 12 TDs and four INTs.

2017: Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma

The windup: After appearing in eight games in 2013 as a freshman for Texas Tech, Mayfield transferred to Oklahoma, sitting out the 2014 season. Good call — he entered 2017 as the Heisman frontrunner after finishing fourth in 2015 and third in 2016. Even an early October loss to Iowa State — in which Mayfield completed 72.7% of his passes for 306 yards and two TDs — couldn’t derail him from his Heisman destiny. Mayfield hit November with a 195.6 rating built on a 72.5% completion percentage, 2,628 yards, 23 scores and three picks. (He also had 54 rushes for 190 yards, four TDs and a flag planted at the Horseshoe’s 50-yard line after beating Ohio State.)

The finish: After opening November with a 598-yard, five-TD (and two-INT) performance (on just 24 completions) against Oklahoma State in a defense-optional Bedlam game, Mayfield’s final four games almost featured cruise-control outings. In games against West Virginia, Kansas and TCU (twice), the future Brown/Buc attempted just 97 passes, competing 69.1% for 1,114 yards, 13 TDs and no picks as the Sooners won the Big 12 and made their third straight CFP. Hmm … seems a bit familiar.

Contact Ryan Ford at rford@freepress.com. Follow him on X (which used to be Twitter, y’know?) @theford.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: How J.J. McCarthy compares to past 5 Heisman Trophy winners