Advertisement

Michigan women vs Kansas in March Madness: Prediction for 2024 NCAA tournament

Ryan Ford, Detroit Free Press
·5 min read

Michigan women's basketball vs. Kansas

Breaking down the Portland 3 region first-round game between No. 9-seed Michigan and 8-seed Kansas:

Records: Michigan (20-13, 9-9 Big Ten); Kansas (19-12, 11-7).

Fast facts: 2 p.m. Saturday; Galen Center, Los Angeles.

TV: ESPNEWS.

At stake: Winner faces winner of 1-seed Southern Cal vs. 16-seed Texas A&M-Corpus Christi for spot in Sweet 16 in Portland, Oregon on March 29-30.

PRINT YOUR BRACKET: March Madness schedule, how to watch the NCAA tournament

Michigan guard Laila Phelia (5) drives to the basket against Iowa guard Caitlin Clark (22) during the Big Ten Tournament semifinals at the Target Center on Saturday, March 9, 2024, in Minneapolis, Minn.
Michigan guard Laila Phelia (5) drives to the basket against Iowa guard Caitlin Clark (22) during the Big Ten Tournament semifinals at the Target Center on Saturday, March 9, 2024, in Minneapolis, Minn.

About U-M

Location: Ann Arbor.

Coach: Kim Barnes Arico (12 seasons at U-M, 261-132 at U-M, 437-266 career).

School tournament record: 11-11 over 11 appearances.

Past 10 regular-season games: 5-5.

Scoring leaders: Laila Phelia, 16.8 points per game; Lauren Hansen, 11.9; Jordan Hobbs, 9.9.

Rebounding leaders: Cameron Williams, 4.7 rebounds per game; Chyra Evans, 4.3; Elissa Brett, 4.2

Assist leaders: Hobbs, 3 assists per game; Hansen, 2.2; Phelia, 1.9.

3-point leaders: Hobbs, 39.1%; Greta Kampschroeder, 38%; Hansen, 37.5%.

The buzz: The Wolverines struggled all season to get momentum; after winning seven of their first eight, they didn’t win more than two in a row until March. That most recent streak featured a regular-season-ending victory over Purdue, a Big Ten tourney-opening win over Minnesota in Minneapolis and then a shocking rally over then-No. 12 Indiana on March 8. U-M was arguably on the bubble — and falling fast — when it fell behind the Hoosiers by 17 points early in the second half. But suddenly, all the pieces clicked for the Wolverines, as Phelia’s downhill game opened up Hansen to fire away from beyond the arc. Phelia had 20 of her career-high 30 points in the second half as U-M beat Indiana by 13. As Barnes Arico observed: “I think Laila Phelia showed why she's one of the best players in the country, and I thought she did a tremendous job late when they started to really double her and try to load on her of finding Lauren. Lauren is one of the best shooters in the country, one of the best playmakers in the country. So they found each other.” When the Wolverines are hitting their 3s — and U-M enters the tourney at 35.3%, good for 37th in the nation — they can hang with anyone. Just ask title contender Iowa, which knocked U-M out of the Big Ten tourney last week: Michigan hit its first seven 3s and led the Hawkeyes by three after the first quarter, despite getting torched in the paint. Iowa won by 27, but that was an uncharacteristic defensive performance by the Wolverines, who led the Big Ten defensively.

Kansas women's basketball guard S'Mya Nichols takes a shot during a 2024 Big 12 Conference tournament game against Texas in Kansas City.
Kansas women's basketball guard S'Mya Nichols takes a shot during a 2024 Big 12 Conference tournament game against Texas in Kansas City.

About Kansas

Location: Lawrence, Kansas.

Coach: Brandon Schneider (126-148 in nine seasons at KU; 222-214 in 14 seasons overall).

School tournament record: 14-14 in 14 appearances.

Past 10 games: 8-2.

Scoring leaders: S’Mya Nichols, 15.2 points per game; Taiyanna Jackson, 12.6; Zakiyah Franklin, 11.7; Holly Kersgieter, 11.7.

Rebounding leaders: Jackson, 9.8 rebounds per game; Kersgieter, 5; Ryan Cobbins, 4.1.

Assist leaders: Nichols, 2.7 assists per game; Wyvette Mayberry, 2.3; Franklin, 2.2.

3-point leaders: Kersgieter, 41.5%; Nichols, 40.8%; McKenzie Smith, 33.3%.

The buzz: Schneider landed a program-changing recruit in Nichols, a five-star guard from Overland Park, Kansas (near Kansas City, Missouri). The No. 5 guard in the class of 2023, and a member of the under-18 U.S. national team, the 6-footer has scored in double digits in 27 of her 31 appearances this season, including 29 points against Oklahoma in Kansas’ season finale and 13 points in the Jayhawks’ win over Big Ten runner-up Nebraska on Dec. 20. Nichols didn’t win the conference’s top freshman award, but did finish on the All-Freshman team as well as first-team All-Big 12. The Jayhawks also have a tower of experience in senior center Taiyanna Jackson, who averaged a double-double — 15.2 points and 12.7 points iin 31.7 minutes per game — before taking a step back this season. At 6-6, the East Chicago, Indiana, native is a game-changer in the middle as a two-time All-Big 12 first-teamer and a three-time All-Defense team member in the conference, averaging 3.1 blocks and 1.3 steals a game for her career. The Jayhawks were one of the nation’s hottest teams, winning eight of nine games from Jan. 31-March 8 before finally sputtering out in the Big 12 semifinals against No. 6 Texas, largely because they shot just 38% from the field and were outrebounded, 37-24.

Prediction

Barnes Arico won’t have to stretch far to scout the Jayhawks, who play an inside-out game much like the Wolverines. They’re not quite as accomplished at it, though, shooting just 32.8% beyond the arc (102nd in the nation) and managing just 34.3 boards a game (273rd). If U-M’s Cameron Williams can hold her own in the middle, the Wolverines’ outside shooters should be enough to send them on to face USC and star freshman JuJu Watkins in the second round. The pick: U-M 70, Kansas 65.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan women vs. Kansas prediction: March Madness, NCAA pick is in