Michigan State football at Minnesota: Scouting report, prediction

Free Press sports writer Chris Solari looks ahead to Michigan State football's game Saturday at Minnesota:

Fast facts

Matchup: Michigan State (2-5, 0-4 Big Ten) at Minnesota (4-3, 2-2).

Kickoff: 3:30 p.m. Saturday; Huntington Bank Stadium, Minneapolis.

TV/radio: Big Ten Network, WJR-AM (760).

Line: Golden Gophers by 7.

Injury report

MSU: Out: RT Spencer Brown (suspension/first half), OL Keyshawn Blackstock (transfer portal), RB Jalen Berger (undisclosed/season), LB Jacoby Windmon (undisclosed/season), DB Armorion Smith (undisclosed/season), DT Alex VanSumeren (undisclosed/season), TE Tyneil Hopper (lower right leg/season), OL Stanton Ramil (right knee/season), OL Gavin Broscious (left knee/season), RB Jaelon Barbarin (undisclosed/season), RB Joseph Martinez (undisclosed/season), DB Khary Crump (suspension). Questionable: DT Simeon Barrow (undisclosed), WR Jaron Glover (unspecified), QB Noah Kim (undisclosed), TE Jack Nickel (undisclosed), OL Cole Dellinger (undisclosed), DB Angelo Grose (lower-body),DTMaverick Hansen (unspecified),LBDarius Snow (unspecified), DB Ade Willie (unspecified), DT Dre Butler (right shoulder), DT Jarrett Jackson (undisclosed), DE Bai Jobe (undisclosed), CB Charles Brantley (upper-body), CB Marqui Lowery (undisclosed), DB Semar Melvin (undisclosed), DB Malcom Jones (undisclosed), LB Ma’a Gaoteote (undisclosed), LB Quavian Carter (undisclosed). Probable: LB Jordan Hall (ankle), RB Jaren Mangham (lower right leg).

Minnesota: Out: RB Bryce Williams (undisclosed/season), LB Derik LeCaptain (undisclosed/season), DL Darnell Jefferies (undisclosed/season), OL Jackson Ruschmeyer (undisclosed), LB Jack Tinnen (undisclosed), LB Cody Lindenberg (leg). Questionable: RB Zach Evans (undisclosed), TE Pierce Walsh (undisclosed), WR Le’Meke Brockington (leg).

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Scouting report

When MSU has the ball: The Spartans are coming off their worst offensive game of the season as well as their fifth straight defeat. MSU gained just 182 total yards and ran for just 49, both season lows, in last week’s 49-0 loss to No. 2 Michigan, and the 133 passing yards equaled the season low set in redshirt freshman Katin Houser’s starting debut a week earlier at Rutgers. Running back Nate Carter ran for a season-low 36 yards on 17 carries one game after getting 108 yards against the Scarlet Knights, and the Spartans lost their No. 2 option with Jalen Berger’s season-ending injury. Houser was replaced in Saturday’s fourth quarter by true freshman Sam Leavitt after going just 12-for-22 for 101 yards with a pick-six and two sacks. The Gophers’ pass rush could feast with starting right tackle Spencer Brown out for the first half after his flagrant foul against U-M and backup tackle Keyshawn Blackstock headed to the portal. Leavitt went 4-for-8 for 32 yards in his longest exposure and could be an option earlier if things don’t improve. Minnesota’s defense is its strength, entering 42nd in total defense by allowing 338 yards per game, holding opponents to 119.7 yards on the ground (35th in the FBS) and 218.3 yards through the air (59th). The Gophers’ 24.3 points allowed ranks 59th after a 12-10 win over Iowa last week in which the admittedly offense-challenged Hawkeyes managed 127 yards and just 11 rushing yards.

When Minnesota has the ball: MSU’s defense struggled covering the middle of the field against the Wolverines, whose tight ends accounted for three touchdowns among 13 catches and 186 of U-M’s 357 passing yards. The 42 points given up by the defense were the most by the Spartans this season, and the Wolverines’ 477 total yards and 6.9 yards per play trailed only the 713 total yards and 9.9 per play allowed against Washington.

MSU now must also cope with getting thinner at two key spots up front. At defensive tackle, Alex VanSumeren is out for the year, and transfers Dre Butler and Jarrett Jackson remain out. At linebacker, the season-ending loss of Jacoby Windmon is compounded by Darius Snow missing the U-M game, Ma’a Gaoteote still on the injured list and freshman Jordan Hall playing through an injured ankle. Meantime, the depth in the secondary behind the starters also has been minimized by a glut of injuries.

The Spartans did get one sack Saturday, upping their total to five in five Power Five games, but they also did not force a turnover for the first time all season. If there is an elixir, it could be the Gophers’ own challenged offense, which ranks 126th out of 130 FBS teams at just 131.9 passing yards per game under quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis. The sophomore has completed 53.4% of his passes for 923 yards with six TD passes to six interceptions. Minnesota ranks 121st in total offense (302.7 yards), and the Gophers are 112th at 20.3 points per game.

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Know the foe

Running strong: The Gophers will challenge MSU’s limited front seven on the ground, with true freshman Darius Taylor (Walled Lake Western) ranking as the Big Ten’s leader at 118.2 yards per game with four touchdowns. Taylor averages 5.7 yards per carry for 591 yards, and he’s a threat out of the backfield in the pass game with nine catches for 81 yards. Minnesota ranks 48th nationally and sixth in the league at 170.9 rushing yards per game, with Kaliakmanis adding 76 yards and a pair of TDs.

Late-down blues: The Gophers are one of the nation’s worst on third down, both with and without the ball. Minnesota’s 36% conversion rate ranks 96th in the nation and 12th in the Big Ten, while its opponents have converted 46.2% of the time against its defense, which is 120th. MSU continues to rank highly in third-down defense, allowing opponents to convert just 29.5% of their chances, but gives up fourth-down conversions at a 66.7% clip, which is tied for 114th.

Fleck-time: It’s hard to believe P.J. Fleck already is in his seventh season as the Gophers’ head coach, after spending four seasons at Western Michigan; that tenure included leading the Broncos to three straight bowl games, a 13-1 season and an appearance in the 2016 Cotton Bowl. The 42-year-old is 48-30 with a 28-28 Big Ten record at Minnesota (including four bowl appearances); Fleck is 78-52 overall with a 1-3 record against the Spartans.

Chris Solari's two cents

Limited viewing: The Spartans have not visited Minneapolis since 2017, a 30-27 victory in their lone appearance at now-Huntington Bank Stadium. Last year’s 34-7 Minnesota win in East Lansing was just the programs' second meeting since 2013, and that ended a five-game MSU win streak that stretched back to 2010. The Spartans lead the series 30-18 all-time but are just 11-13 on the road.

More yellow: MSU’s 11 penalties against U-M on Saturday equaled its most of the season, and the 102 yards penalized were the most assessed against the Spartans. MSU's eight penalties per game ranks 122nd in the FBS, and its 71.1 yards penalized is 120th. Minnesota ranks fifth in the nation with just 3.6 flags and seventh at 33.6 penalty yards a game.

Prediction

Offense will be at a premium as the temperatures dip into the low 30s and snow begins to fall around kickoff. Expect both teams to the ball on the ground. But the lack of bodies in the front seven proves too much to overcome as the Gophers get a late touchdown from Taylor to send MSU to its sixth straight loss. The pick: Minnesota 17, MSU 10.

Contact Chris Solari: csolari@freepress.com. Follow him @chrissolari.

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This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan State football at Minnesota: Scouting report, prediction