Michigan football vs. Alabama: Scouting report, prediction for CFP semifinal & Rose Bowl
Free Press sports writer Ryan Ford takes an early look at the College Football Playoff semifinal matchup between Michigan football and Alabama on Jan. 1 at the Rose Bowl:
Fast facts
Matchup: No. 1 Michigan (13-0) vs. No. 4 Alabama (12-1), Rose Bowl, College Football Playoff semifinal.
Kickoff: 5:10 p.m. Jan. 1; Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California.
TV/radio: ESPN; WXYT-FM (97.1), WTKA-AM (1050).
Line: Wolverines by 1½.
At stake: The winner faces the winner of the Jan. 1 Sugar Bowl between No. 2 Washington and No. 4 Texas in the CFP title game at NRG Stadium in Houston on Jan. 8.
Scouting report
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When U-M has the ball: Running back Blake Corum has a program-record 24 rushing touchdowns (and needs just one TD to become the top rushing scorer all-time in U-M history), wide receiver Roman Wilson has 11 receiving touchdowns and quarterback J.J. McCarthy, who makes it all go, is 10th in passing yards per attempt (9.2), sixth nationally in passing efficiency rating (170.3) and second in completion percentage (74.2%). This isn’t necessarily the stout Nick Saban defense of old in Tuscaloosa, however, as the Tide is just 18th in yards allowed per game (313.3), 33rd in rushing yards (125.5) and 23rd in passing yards (188.8).
When ’Bama has the ball: What was a major issue at the start of the year has become a strength as Jalen Milroe has grown into the QB job. His 140 carries for 468 yards might get him a rep as a run-first QB, but he has shown some passing touch, with a 177.5 passer rating buoyed by 23 touchdowns and just six interceptions. That has been helped by his connection with sophomore receiver Isaiah Bond — the recipient of the soon-to-be-legendary “Gravedigger” TD pass on fourth-and-31 against Auburn that kept ’Bama’s CFP hopes alive two weeks ago.
Know the foe
Turner & skootch: Star edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. is in the NFL, but the Tide rolls on with junior edge rusher Dallas Turner, who leads Alabama with nine sacks — all of which have come since the Tide’s Week 2 loss to Texas — and 13½ tackles-for-loss. This is far from his first stellar season, however; Turner entered the year with 12½ sacks and 18 TFLs over the Florida native’s first two years with the Tide.
Nick’s revenge: Tide coach Nick Saban has extracted a measure of revenge for his 2-3 record against Michigan as MSU’s head coach from 1995-99 — Alabama’s two games against the Wolverines with Saban as coach, in 2012 and 2020, have gone the Tide’s way by a combined 76-30 score.
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Hey, Kool-Aid man! The Tide has a pair of potential first-round picks at cornerback in Terrion Arnold (who has five picks) and the wonderfully-named Kool-Aid McKinstry. And no, that’s not a football nickname — it comes from McKinstry’s grandma: The 2022 second-team AP All-American is legally named Ga’Quincy — but picked up his liquid moniker from his grandma after he “came out smiling” at birth.
Ryan Ford’s two cents
One grand “Granddaddy”: Well, we didn’t get one final Big Ten/Pac-12 matchup in “The Granddaddy of ’Em Al” in Pasadena, but a bowl featuring Michigan, which has more Rose Bowls (20) than any other Big Ten team, and Alabama, which has more Rose Bowls (7) than any other non-B1G/P12 team, has more than enough history behind it — even if both teams have their eyes on a Jan. 8 date in Houston.
Ryan Ford’s prediction
Picking against Nick Saban in a CFP game just feels … wrong. It’s true that ’Bama presents a top-level challenge — on offense and defense — that the Wolverines haven’t faced often this season. But so did Ohio State a couple weeks ago, and the bet here is that, after a couple eye-opening drives in Pasadena, U-M’s defense adjusts and locks down Milroe just enough for Blake Corum to dive across the goal line in the final minutes. The pick: Michigan 24, Alabama 21.
Contact Ryan Ford at rford@freepress.com. Follow him on X (which used to be Twitter, y’know?) @theford.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan football vs. Alabama: Scouting report, pick for CFP semifinal
