Michigan football roundtable: Truth to 'season doesn't matter' if Wolverines lose to OSU?

For the second consecutive season, Michigan football (11-0, 8-0 Big Ten) has reached the final week of the season undefeated and all that remains in the way of a third consecutive trip to the Big Ten championship is archival Ohio State (11-0, 8-0 Big Ten).

Beyond the enormous ramifications on the field in 2023 — the victor essentially locked into the College Football Playoff — there is plenty of drama off it. The sign-stealing scandal that has enveloped Michigan has added to the spectacle of what may be the most consequential showdown in the history of this rivalry. A win will keep Michigan’s dream of a national title alive. A loss could conceivably end a golden age and serve as the uncomfortable preamble to 2024, which looks ominous with two active NCAA investigations looming over the program, an expected exodus of talented upperclassmen and questions about Jim Harbaugh’s future in Ann Arbor.

Free Press sports writers Tony Garcia and Rainer Sabin, co-hosts of the podcast “Hail Yes,” discuss the magnitude of Saturday’s contest:

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'This is the Big Ten championship'

Garcia: Michigan has gone 36-3 in their past 39 games with a number of significant victories — none more momentous than the pair over the Buckeyes.

However, each was soon followed by crushing losses in the College Football Playoff. It’s why this season for U-M has been about a “one-track mind” to get back to earn a shot in the national title game. Frankly, this is that shot. The winner of this game is likely to beat Iowa next week in Indianapolis, so, as captain Mike Sainristil said earlier this week, “this is the Big Ten championship.” It goes without saying it’s a pretty big spot for Michigan to be without Harbaugh as the two sides meet for just the fourth time in their 119 matchups with both teams ranked inside the top three in the country.

Sabin: Yes, Harbaugh’s suspension has created another story line, even though Michigan’s players have tried to downplay the effect of his absence. But there is a reason why he is one of the most famous figures in college football and the man Michigan viewed as a savior almost nine years ago. He is a VIP in the truest sense of the term. Harbaugh has helped spur Michigan’s recent rise and his sideline presence will be missed — most especially by quarterback J.J. McCarthy.

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McCarthy hasn’t looked the same in recent weeks without Harbaugh there to counsel him. Three of his four worst performances this season, viewed through the lens of his efficiency rating, have happened when Harbaugh has been suspended. McCarthy was off the mark last Saturday against Maryland when he completed 52% of his pass attempts for 141 yards, no touchdowns and an interception. Several factors may have contributed to his recent struggles, including a dented offensive line that has looked vulnerable in pass protection. But his play was concerning nonetheless.

McCarthy magic in store?

Garcia: Not only that, it was also McCarthy’s third consecutive game without a touchdown. Now, that wasn’t a problem against Purdue, when he threw for a season-best 335 yards; however, to your point, he hasn’t looked right in recent weeks. It started against Penn State — Trevor Keegan said the line had trouble hearing the cadence — so U-M bailed on the pass and finished with 32 straight runs. However, the problem appeared to come when McCarthy was tripped up on a fourth-quarter play, which seemed to hobble him at the end of Penn State and all of last week at Maryland.

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On Monday, McCarthy said he was feeling “fantastic," and the hope for U-M fans is that's the case, because his legs open up the entire offense. The Wolverines haven’t run the ball to the same effect as the past two seasons, so McCarthy has needed to extend plays on a number of third-and-longs to make things happen. If he can’t do that, it limits Michigan’s offense greatly. He’s also not the only one who’s banged up. Left tackle LaDarius Henderson missed last week at Maryland and though he practiced Tuesday and is expected this week, it would be hard to imagine he’s at 100%. Offensive tackle Myles Hinton filled in for Henderson last week, but left the game with a knee injury. His status is unknown as well. The Wolverines mauled the Buckeyes in the trenches the past two years and Sherrone Moore’s unit has said it knows it is the key to victory, which is why it’s worth keeping a particularly close eye on against Jim Knowles’ defense that is much improved in Year 2.

[ MUST LISTEN: Make "Hail Yes!" your go-to Michigan Wolverines podcast, available anywhere you listen to podcasts (Apple, Spotify) ]

Sabin: Knowles notably took some gambles last season and lost against Michigan. His blitz call in the second quarter changed the tenor of the game, resuscitating both the Wolverines and McCarthy’s stat line when the quarterback fired a 69-yard touchdown strike to Cornelius Johnson that tied the score. It was the first in a series of big plays that burned the Buckeyes, who gave up five scores of at least 45 yards last November. It’s hard to imagine Knowles will be as aggressive Saturday. But that doesn’t mean he won’t create problems for Michigan. The Buckeyes’ defense is solid across the board with playmakers at all three levels — JT Tuimoloau at defensive end, Tommy Eichenberger at linebacker and Josh Proctor at safety. OSU has allowed the fewest passing yards in the country and surrendered only 44 points in its last five games.

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The Buckeyes have taken on a different identity as a result. Ryan Day insisted that they were a “tough team” when he fired back at Lou Holtz in a postgame interview following a close victory over Notre Dame in September. But Ohui State can still sting their opponents with its high-octane offense. Tight end Cade Stover is a weapon. TreVeyon Henderson is a true threat in the running game. And receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. is perhaps the best player in college football. They have helped ease the transition from decorated quarterback C.J. Stroud to new starter Kyle McCord, who might be the weak link in the whole operation despite ranking second in the Big Ten in passer rating behind McCarthy. McCord, after all, has struggled when he has been placed under pressure, completing only 38% of his attempts in those situations. The Wolverines will need to dent his pocket and find a way to rattle him.

What does it mean?

Garcia: Michigan's defense certainly has plenty of players who can do that and more as the unit ranks No. 1 in the nation both in scoring defense (9.0 points per game) and total defense (234.8 yards). Sainristil had two big interceptions last week, Kenneth Grant and Mason Graham each made game-saving sacks and senior Michael Barrett and Derrick Moore combined for a sack and scoop-and-score. That's not to mention the starting edges, the linebackers, or U-M's lockdown cornerback Will Johnson. But like the rest of the team, Jesse Minter's unit will have its hands full with all the names mentioned above. But what does it all mean? Well, the College Football Playoff, and the Big Ten, is also expanding next season. It will be exceedingly rare, if not impossible, for the opportunity for one of the teams in this rivalry to destroy the other's season like we have this season. And with everything else that is still looming off the field, a Michigan loss could be truly detrimental.

Next up: Buckeyes

Matchup: No. 3 Michigan (11-0, 8-0 Big Ten) vs. No. 2 Ohio State (11-0, 8-0).

Kickoff: Noon Saturday; Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor.

TV/radio: Fox; WXYT-FM (97.1), WTKA-AM (1050).

Line: Wolverines by 3½.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan football roundtable: Everything on the line vs. Ohio State