Michigan football vs. Minnesota: Scouting report, prediction

Free Press sports writer Tony Garcia breaks down Michigan football's Week 6 matchup vs. Minnesota on Saturday in Minneapolis:

Fast facts

Matchup: No. 2 Michigan (5-0, 2-0 Big Ten) at Minnesota (3-2, 1-1 Big Ten).

Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. Saturday; Huntington Bank Stadium, Minneapolis.

TV/radio: NBC; WWJ-AM (950).

Betting line: Wolverines by 18½.

Availability report

Michigan: Doubtful: RB CJ Stokes, DB Ja'Den McBurrows; Questionable: S Rod Moore, OT Myles Hinton.

Minnesota: Missed Week 5: RB Darius Taylor, WR Chris Autman-Bell, LB Jack Tinnen, DB Jackson Powers, DL Hayden Schwartz, OL Jackson Ruschmeyer. Questionable Week 5: LB Cody Lindenberg, DL Lucas Finnessy.

2024 SCHEDULE RELEASE: Michigan's future slate looks absolutely loaded

Scouting report

When Michigan has the ball: The Wolverines appear to have the upper hand again against a Minnesota defense that ranks No. 44 in points allowed (21.6 per game) and No. 60 in yards (361.4 per game). There has been little stopping U-M's attack, which starts with J.J. McCarthy. The QB leads the nation in QBR (94.2) through five weeks and has completed better than 71% of his passes in four of five games. His favorite target, Roman Wilson, finished September with 19 catches for 324 yards and leads the nation with eight touchdown receptions.

Four of his eight touchdown receptions this season, according to sportsinfosolutions, have come on "broken plays," the most in the nation. As impressive as the passing game has been, U-M has gotten back to its ground attack the past two weeks. The Wolverines rushed for more than 450 yards combined against Rutgers and Nebraska (both of which ranked in the top 15 against the run before facing U-M) while controlling the clock for more than 37 minutes in those games.

Though he hasn't been as electric as a season ago, Blake Corum leads the nation with nine rushing touchdowns. With two more touchdowns, the senior will pass his running backs coach — Mike Hart, who had 41 touchdowns — for fourth all-time in program history. Hart joked Corum wasn't allowed to score anymore, then said, "he'd better" get it done this weekend.

When Minnesota has the ball: The Golden Gophers are No. 14 in time of possession (32:34 per game) and they'll need to control the clock again to have any hope against the Wolverines. However, Minnesota is only 55th in third-down conversions (42.6%) while Michigan's defense is 20th in stopping third-down conversions (31.7%). Under center, Minnesota has Athan Kaliakmanis, a dual-threat sophomore. The 6-foot-4, 210-pound QB has completed 71 of 121 passes (58.7%) for 745 yards, five touchdowns and four interceptions, but has trouble throwing over the middle. Kaliakmanis is 7-for-24 for just 120 yards, two touchdowns and one interception when throwing between the hashes at least 10 yards down the field, according to Pro Football Focus. However, the Gophers are hoping to run the ball; they rank No. 32 nationally (193.2 yards per game).

SLOW START: Even as Michigan's Donovan Edwards preaches patience, there's valid reason for concern

Know the foe

Western express: Minnesota's run game is led by true freshman Darius Taylor, who starred at Walled Lake Western last season. Taylor is No. 9 in the nation with 532 rushing yards despite missing last week's game against Louisiana; he had 198 yards and two touchdowns the week before against Northwestern, but suffered a leg injury late in the OT loss. Taylor has run 87 times this season, accounting for 27 first downs, four touchdowns and 6.1 yards per attempt.

That said, he has yet to face a test like the Wolverines. U-M is No. 13 in run defense (85.2 yards per game), and the first-team defense has yet to allow a rushing TD this season. If Taylor can't go, look for a heavy dose of Zach Evans, who ran 15 times for 85 yards against Louisiana last week and Sean Tyler, a transfer from Western Michigan who had 1,000-yard seasons each of the past two years the MAC, but has yet to get going (40 carries, 183 yards) this year.

Little Brown Jug: Michigan and Minnesota first met on October 17, 1892, though the Little Brown Jug wasn't awarded until Oct. 31, 1903. Fielding Yost's Wolverines were riding a 29-game win streak and traveled to take on unbeaten Minnesota. Yost didn't want U-M's water to be tampered with, so he had a student manager get a jug for the team. The game finished in a 6-6 tie after Minnesota fans stormed the field, and U-M left and left the jug behind. The teams didn't meet again until 1909, with Minnesota saying U-M could have the jug back if it won, which it did, 15-6.

Proven P.J.: Whether it's "Row The Boat" or "Ski-U-Mah," P.J. Fleck has a knack for running catchphrases into the ground. But Gophers fans aren't pushing him out the door anytime soon. The former Western Michigan coach won five games in 2017, seven games the following season, and then posted an 11-2 campaign in 2019.

The Gophers have won nine games each of the past two seasons, which might not be enough in Ann Arbor, but is a great standard in Minneapolis. This doesn't appear to be one of Fleck's better groups (and Big Ten crossover games against Michigan and Ohio State don't help) but Minnesota once again should be bowl eligible.

Tony Garcia's two cents

Terrific tight ends: Despite the standouts at other positions, more attention should be paid to the tight end unit. Colston Loveland is third on the team with 15 catches for 181 yards and while AJ Barner and Max Bredeson aren't getting the same production, they're doing the dirty work. Per Pro Football Focus, Barner (81.8) grades out second nationally in run blocking while Bredeson (80.3) is No. 8.

Can you kick it?: U-M kicker James Turner is off to a solid start in his Wolverine career. The Louisville transfer (and Saline native) is 4-for-6 on field goals — both misses are from outside 40 yards — and 22-for-23 on extra points. There could be wind and rain Saturday evening, which could factor into the kicking game.

Prediction

This is going to look a lot like the past two games with Jim Harbaugh back in the fold: a one-sided domination. Look for Corum to top 100 yards and pass Mike Hart in rushing touchdowns, as well as for Donovan Edwards to get in the end zone. No shutout, again, for the defense, but once again it looks like the nation's top unit as it forces two turnovers. The pick: U-M 42, Minnesota 10.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan football: Scouting report, pick vs. Minnesota