Mets reliever Nate Lavender dominated spring training -- here's why he won't make Opening Day roster
Except for the otherworldly Edwin Diaz, left-handed prospect Nate Lavender has been the Mets' most dominant reliever during spring training.
The 24-year-old struck out seven of the nine batters he faced over three perfect frames earlier this spring.
In those innings, Lavender did what he has been doing in the minors -- he struck out tons of batters, with the elite extension he gets when delivering his low-90s fastball resulting in the offering sneaking up on hitters.
But he was reassigned to minor league camp on March 8.
Being reassigned is different than being optioned.
Players who are not on the 40-man roster are reassigned, while those who are on the 40-man roster and have minor league options remaining (such as Grant Hartwig and Josh Walker, who were sent down at the same time as Lavender) are optioned.
For Lavender, not already being on the 40-man roster is one of the reasons why -- barring something very strange happening -- he will not be on the Mets' 26-man Opening Day roster.
Another reason? Lavender, unlike many of the relievers who are fighting for the final one or two slots in the Mets' bullpen, has minor league options remaining.
Additionally, when you combine the fact that the Mets' bullpen was largely set before camp with the fact that there are about a half dozen other pitchers fighting for the final spot(s) -- many of whom are out of options -- it becomes even harder for Lavender to break through and make the roster.
It can very easily be argued that Lavender deserves to be in the Opening Day bullpen. His ability to miss bats has been elite, and he seems ready for his first big league shot.
But like it or not, the Mets -- and every other major league team -- will almost always look at the big picture when it comes to roster building. Sometimes caution is thrown to the wind, but this is not one of those times.
In short, that means that David Stearns and Co. will choose to keep a pitcher they would otherwise lose instead of turning to Lavender right out of the gate.
As things currently stand, these six pitchers are guaranteed spots in the Opening Day bullpen:
Edwin Diaz
Brooks Raley
Adam Ottavino
Jake Diekman
Jorge Lopez
Drew Smith
Beyond those six, Shintaro Fujinami could make it if he performs well. But he also has options, meaning he can be sent down to the minors without the Mets running the risk of losing him.
Here are others who are fighting for a spot, with each of them being out of options:
Michael Tonkin
Phil Bickford
Sean Reid-Foley
Yohan Ramirez
Yacksel Rios
Austin Adams
Tonkin could have a leg up given his ability to pitch multiple innings and his recent big league experience -- 80 innings in relief for the Atlanta Braves in 2023.
And if Tonkin is in, it means the Mets will either round out the group with him and Fujinami or him and one of the other five pitchers listed above.
So again, this simply comes down to a numbers game as far as Lavender is concerned.
Translation: The likely difference between what Lavender would contribute right now and what any of the on-the-bubble relievers would contribute is negligible -- and it would be poor roster management to let an out-of-options pitcher go this early when you don't have to.
As Stearns has said many times, the bullpen at the beginning of the season will be different from the bullpen at the end of the season.
Like with every bullpen, there will be injuries. There will be ineffectiveness. There will be roster churn.
Lavender's time will come at some point this season.
And when it does, he will have a chance to develop into a key cog -- possibly giving the Mets their first legitimate homegrown reliever in a while.
