With Mets missing on Yoshinobu Yamamoto, here's what their plan should be this offseason and beyond
The Mets had a legitimate shot to land Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who was one of the most coveted free agents in history.
In the end, despite Steve Cohen offering $325 million over 12 years, Yamamoto landed with the Dodgers on an identical offer as it pertained to dollars and years -- while spurning the Yankees' $300 million offer.
Now, the Mets will have to take a different path as it pertains to this offseason and beyond.
Here's what that should look like...
Add another legitimate starting pitcher this offseason, but don't bite on Blake Snell
The Mets' initial plan, if Yamamoto signed elsewhere, had been to target another starter, but the recent buzz had them not very interested in the very top of the non-Yamamoto market. (SNY MLB Insider Andy Martino reported that the Initial expectation is the Mets will not pursue high-end starting pitching as a pivot from losing Yamamoto.) And that makes sense.
On the trade market, Dylan Cease will cost a ton when it comes to prospects, and the Brewers might not trade Corbin Burnes.
That leaves Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery among the guys being referred to as "frontline." But Snell comes with injury concerns, inconsistent performance, and control issues, while Montgomery might get paid well beyond his profile -- which is a strong No. 3 starter.
If I'm the Mets, I'm avoiding Snell and paying Montgomery only if his contract is closer to $100 million than $150 million.
Elsewhere on the free agent starting pitching market, the Mets should be prioritizing Lucas Giolito and/or Shota Imanaga.
Giolito had a down 2022 and struggled in the second half of 2023 after being traded by the White Sox, but he is only 29, has serious upside, big stuff, and has thrown 160 innings every year since 2018.
Some might view a pursuit of Imanaga as settling for the lesser pitcher from Japan, but who cares? The 30-year-old is very good in his own right and could be a nice fit in the middle of a big league rotation for years to come.
Continue to assemble the rest of the team without adjusting much
The Mets need plenty of reinforcements beyond the rotation.
Their top priority should be adding a starting-caliber outfielder who can serve as a hedge in case Starling Marte is injured and/or ineffective again.
The Mets should also be looking to add a full-time DH. If they want to keep the contract length to one year, they can probably achieve that by signing J.D. Martinez or Justin Turner (they were recently linked to Turner). If they're willing to go longer, Jorge Soler could be a fit.
Then there's the bullpen, where New York has added a number of pitchers on minor league and/or split deals, but is still in need of two legitimate relievers who can pitch in the late innings.
As they look to do that, there are still lots of solid free agent relief options available, including Hector Neris, Matt Moore, David Robertson, and Phil Maton.
Get ready for next offseason's loaded free agent starting pitching class
Yamamoto not winding up with the Mets is a tough blow, and likely makes the ceiling of the 2024 team lower. But a silver lining will be the Mets' ability to go full bore after one of the aces set to hit free agency after the 2024 season.
Those free agents are set to include:
Walker Buehler
Zack Wheeler
Corbin Burnes
Max Fried
What made Yamamoto so unique was that he reached free agency ahead of his age-25 season. That is not the case with the above pitchers, most of whom will be entering their age-30 or age-31 seasons in 2025.
However, Buehler specifically could be an ideal target if he has a successful return this coming season from Tommy John surgery. He has a career 3.02 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with close to 10 strikeouts per nine, and was an innings-eating horse before tearing his UCL.
And with the Dodgers having inked Shohei Ohtani and Yamamoto and traded for and extended Tyler Glasnow, it's close to impossible to envision them retaining Buehler after 2024.
Decide whether to go all-in for Juan Soto
Barring a huge surprise, Soto is hitting free agency after the 2024 season.
He turned down well over $400 million when he was still with the Nationals, and he and agent Scott Boras could be seeking a deal that starts with a five this time around.
Even though the Yanks didn't get Yamamoto, Soto could be playing elsewhere in 2025, when he will be just 26 years old.
The downside with Soto revolves around his defense and base running. And it's concerning that his outfield defense has declined badly over the last few seasons.
The upside is that, offensively, he's basically Ted Williams. And 26-year-old Ted Williams clones aren't easy to find.
A Mets payroll without Yamamoto on it for the next 12 years will undoubtedly have room for Soto. And they will likely be very hungry to make a splash.
