Matthew Berry's Love/Hate for Week 10 of 2023 season

There are few unwritten rules in fantasy. I don’t know if anyone has ever bothered to rank them, but we’d all agree that, right up there, is you HAVE to make the draft.

Draft day is only the best day of the year and you’re gonna miss it? Make your league sit through the countdown until you go on auto-draft? No sir. Auto-drafting is for losers and amateurs. Everyone knows this.

Including Oliver Cross.

His co-owner Stephen Cross, aka Oliver’s Dad, wasn’t able to make the draft due to an unbreakable work commitment, so it was up to Oliver.

You see, Oliver grew up in Virginia and as a 9-year-old boy he first started playing fantasy sports with his Dad, who is a hardcore fantasy basketball player. Stephen taught his son all about playing in a fantasy league. Some of Oliver’s earliest memories were drafting Shaq and Allen Iverson. As Oliver grew up, eventually going to the University of Virginia, he started playing fantasy football somewhere along the way. Dad, however, just stayed with hoops.

But a number of years ago, Stephen’s brother passed away. And at some point after that, Oliver got a call. It was from his Dad. He was asking if he would help his old man manage a fantasy football team.

His Dad explained he had been invited into a league called “Braggin Rights 2,” which is a 10-team, 2-QB league with PPR scoring comprised of family on his and his brother’s side. This included cousins and significant others from all over the country — from San Diego to Syracuse, Philly to North Carolina. All family members that Oliver didn't get to see that often, and in a few cases, ones he had never even met in person.

Over the years, due to work, Oliver had missed some family gatherings, including the first family reunion. But he was damned if he was going to miss the draft.

Even though it was happening at 2 AM, his time.

And even though Oliver was on the other side of the world.

Because Oliver, you see, was serving our country as a Captain in the United States Marine Corps as part of the Second Marine Raider Battalion. And the part of the world he was in, well, the internet was "spotty." That is probably the nicest way to put it.

But after a bunch of trial and error in the dark, Oliver was able to find enough of a signal to surprise his league mates and do the draft for the "Braggin Rights 2" league.

They were thrilled, but not surprised. They knew Oliver wouldn’t miss the draft. No matter what. Not for them. Not for his Dad.

Yes, Oliver loves fantasy football. Just like we all do. And he and his Dad’s team, the Charlottesville Wahoos, have had their fair share of success over the years, including two titles, a second-place and a third-place finish over the last four years.

But more important than the competition, the fun, and the wins to Oliver… is family.

He hasn’t been able to live anywhere near his father for over a decade. And because of the classified nature of Oliver’s job, he can’t talk about work with his Dad.

“Fantasy football is what keeps us close,” Oliver told me.

They talk every week about their team, potential pickups, trades and lineup decisions.

And it’s not just his father that Oliver's been able to stay close with. Even though he has been deployed overseas, this fantasy football league has allowed him to connect with, and keep in touch with, his family from all over the country. Even some cousins he had previously never met before. But they were all together this past summer – the entire league at one table – at Oliver’s wedding.

However, it’s not just connecting with family and bonding with his father that makes Oliver love fantasy football so much.

“Playing fantasy football, keeping up with the NFL while overseas, it kept me grounded. It’s a great diversion when work gets in the way.”

Fantasy football and the NFL are, well, a very American thing. And apologies if this sounds corny to you, but for Oliver it meant a lot to him when he was overseas, serving our country.

“It reminds me what I’m over here fighting for.”

Every Fourth of July, I post the same thing on social media: “Proud and very grateful to live in a country where I have the freedom to wear makeup and talk about fake football on TV.”

It’s a genuine statement written to try to be clever of course, but the truth is not lost on me.

I asked Oliver why he decided to join the Marines and he told me that after he graduated college, he decided to join because he thought it was a noble pursuit. That it was about more than capitalism. It was about something larger than himself, something he could be proud of, knowing he was making a difference in the world.

It’s not nearly enough, but one small way I try to honor our Veterans is with this column, writing a story about how fantasy football and the military intersect. For my money, I have to say we CANNOT honor our Veterans – past, present and future – enough. It’s not possible to repay all those that have served our country and protected our freedoms, giving of themselves, sacrificing so much. And that goes for the family members of our military who make their own significant sacrifices as well.

I feel strongly about that and I know so many others do, including my friends at Applebee’s. As you may or may not know, Applebee’s is the presenting sponsor of my podcast and daily Peacock show “Fantasy Football Happy Hour” as well as being the presenting sponsor of the Sunday morning show, "Fantasy Football Pregame," which airs from 11am-1pm ET on Peacock and NFL on NBC YouTube channel.

They’ve been great partners and supporters of the shows and me personally. They’ve been the presenting sponsor of the show since I’ve gotten to NBC and they have already committed to multiple years of sponsorship of both shows. Here’s why I bring any of that up. I don’t have to do what I’m about to do. No one asked me to. It doesn’t affect me or my job in the slightest.

I’m doing it because I asked if I could. Because I was so touched when I saw Kathryn Tappen interview Veronica White who served our country in the Navy for a decade and now serves the good folks of Danville, Ky., as the General Manager of the Applebee’s there. Veronica has traveled the world, including being stationed on the John C. Stennis and she loves the Applebee’s Veterans Day celebration.

In case you’re unaware, this will be the 16^th consecutive year of the Applebee’s Veterans Day celebration. This Saturday, on Veterans Day, Applebee’s will give thanks to all Active Duty Military, Veterans, Reserves and National Guard that dine-in at an Applebee’s with a complimentary full-sized entrée from an exclusive menu that has been created specially for them. To date, Applebee’s has served more than 11.3 million free meals on Veterans Day.

Veronica White says Veterans Day means a lot to her, of course, as does being able to work for a company that shares the same respect for our Veterans.

It’s a feeling that echoes throughout the entire organization at the highest levels. Seriously. You have no idea. When I asked if I could talk to someone from Applebee’s about their commitment to our Veterans I got a call two hours later from Kevin Carroll, the Chief Operating Officer of Applebee’s. You guys realize there are over 1,500 different Applebee’s locations across the country, right? It’s a massive, massive organization and Kevin is a very busy guy. But he jumped on the phone with dumb me because that’s how important this promotion is to him. To everyone at Applebee’s.

Kevin’s father was in the military, and he grew up seeing his father having to leave their family to serve. “It’s my favorite day of the year,” Kevin told me. On Saturday, Kevin will be traveling all over Tennessee, visiting a number of restaurants in that state, helping to serve food, run drinks and visit with the Veterans who visit. It’s something he’s done every year and he’s not alone. All of the company’s senior leadership will be doing something similar at locations across the country.

Oh, yeah. It's a day the entire company gets behind in a big way, as preparation begins months in advance. Insanely popular at every location as you might imagine, the planning to make sure they have enough staffing and food takes a long time. They decorate their restaurants, make signs and re-configure the inside to create “community tables” so Veterans from all over can come, visit with others and share stories. This is a popular tradition every year as Veterans who don’t know each other can meet at the restaurant, sit with each other and trade their stories, ultimately leaving as fast friends.

“Doin’ Good in the Neighborhood” is how Applebee’s describes the promotion and it’s one they are not only proud to do, but they’re also very proud of the fact they were the first casual dining restaurant chain to do this. Since that time 16 years ago, a number of their competitors have introduced similar concepts. Now, normally, companies don’t love it when competitors do similar things to what they are doing, especially if it's been successful. But not this. As Applebee's COO Kevin Carroll said to me, he’s so happy others have been inspired by what Applebee's started.

“The more people to honor our Veterans, the better.”

Couldn’t agree more, Kevin. Couldn’t agree more. Which is why I wanted to write about this. Because maybe someone who has, or is serving, hasn't heard about it. Or maybe there’s a business owner out there reading this that hasn’t thought about what they could do to help honor Veterans and maybe they’ll be inspired. None of it is enough – not this column, not what Applebee’s does, not what anyone does.

It’s impossible to repay the debt. Impossible.

But we can at least try, right?

Much love and respect to all who have served our country - past, present, and future - along with their families. As we do every year, we also offer a significant discount to any active military member who would like a subscription to RotoPass.com. All you have to do is email support@rotopass.com from a military address and we will hook you up.

With that, a thanks to my producer Damian Dabrowski for his help at various points in this column.

Quarterbacks I Love in Week 10

Joe Burrow vs. Houston

Joe Burrow shed some blood on Sunday Night Football last week against the Bills. He also shed any remaining doubts about being all the way back from a slow start to the season. Over the past four weeks, Burrow is averaging 21.8 PPG and has at least two touchdown passes in every game. Now he gets a Texans defense that, since Week 5, is allowing the third-most passing yards per game and a 102.3 passer rating (sixth highest) over that stretch. Cincinnati is also tied for the highest implied team total this week. Even down a fingernail, Joe Burrow is my QB 2 this week.

Dak Prescott vs. New York Giants

Dak Prescott has three straight games with 24-plus fantasy points and, since Week 6, is QB 1 in PPG. So obviously, all sports debate shows can stop discussing Dak Prescott’s play now. Okay, great! That’s decided. Thankfully there will be more time to talk LeBron vs. Jordan now. So let’s move on to Dak’s matchup with the Giants. When these teams met back in Week 1, the Giants pressured Dak on just 20% of his drop-backs. And last week, the Giants allowed over 8.0 yards per pass attempt to Aidan O’Connell. With Dak averaging a league-high 9.0 yards per pass attempt since Week 6, the Giants could be in for (yet another) long day. I have Dak as a Top 4 QB in Week 10.

Sam Howell at Seattle

Washington leads the NFL in pass rate this season and three of the four quarterbacks who have attempted 35-plus passes against the Seahawks this season have thrown for 300-plus yards. Future Hall-of-Famer Sam Howell has 40-plus pass attempts in five of his past six games and is likely to put the ball up often in a game in which the Commanders are 6-point underdogs. Add to it that, since Week 4, Howell is averaging 20.3 PPG and is QB 5 over that span, and I feel I’ve given you more than enough analysis to convince you that my ranking of Sam Howell as a Top 7 quarterback this week is not a homer pick. It’s a heavily-researched and statistically-supported homer pick. So there.

Others receiving votes: Deebo Samuel returned to practice this week and in the five games with a healthy Deebo this season, Brock Purdy is averaging 19.9 PPG. Plus, Purdy’s Week 10 opponent, the Jacksonville Jaguars, allow the third-most passing yards per game and the sixth-most fantasy PPG to quarterbacks. … The Buffalo Bills have allowed multiple touchdowns passes in three straight games and the last three quarterbacks to face the Bills all scored 19-plus fantasy points. Going through the Bills' secondary right now is like a hot knife through butter, or if you prefer, a Bills fan through a flaming table. Either way, Buffalo is a good matchup this week for Russell Wilson. … Similar matchup dynamics this week for Geno Smith against the Commanders, but thankfully no Bills fans will be injured in this analogy. Washington is allowing 20.2 PPG to quarterbacks this season (third most) and the Commanders have given up multiple touchdowns passes in five of their past six games, as well.

Quarterbacks I Hate in Week 10

Deshaun Watson at Baltimore

Cleveland has the second-lowest implied team total this week and seven of the nine quarterbacks to face Baltimore this season have scored less than 13.5 fantasy points. The Ravens also allow passing touchdowns at the lowest rate on the season and surrender a league-low 5.5 yards per attempt. I have yet to see anything from Deshaun Watson that makes me think he can overcome that sort of matchup. I have him outside my Top 15 QBs for Week 10.

Kyler Murray vs. Atlanta

Fantasy managers who stashed Kyler Murray since the start of the season have been waiting for this day. And it’s finally here! Congratulations! Kyler Murray is BACK! Now for the bad news: he’s also back on the Hate List. (Womp, womp.) Look, there’s every reason to have optimism for Kyler down the stretch for you grab-and-stashers. I believe he’s gonna be an easy QB 1 down the stretch. And he could certainly go off in his first game back. But, you know, it IS his first NFL game in 331 days. And it’s against a Falcons defense that allows the seventh-fewest yards per pass attempt. And don’t forget: Murray has generated 30% of his career fantasy points from rushing. Is he really going to be running all over the field in his first game back from an ACL tear? I’m sorry, but I don’t see it. Or at least I need to see it first. In his first game back I merely have Murray as a mid-tier QB 2.

Running Backs I Love in Week 10

Tony Pollard vs. New York Giants

I know, I know. Tony Pollard managers are down bad this year. But help is on the way! Did I say “help?” I meant the New York Football Giants. Teams facing the G-Men are averaging more than 27 running back touches per game and every running back with 15 or more touches against the Giants this season has scored a touchdown. The Giants have also allowed the third-most rushing touchdowns (10) to backs this season. Meanwhile, in games in which Tony Pollard sees more than just 15 touches, he is averaging 18.6 PPG. To put it more succinctly: The Giants are a ton of crap, so get yourself some T.P. Give me Tony Pollard as RB 5 this week.

Breece Hall at Las Vegas

It seems to have taken Antonio Pierce less than a week to fix the Raiders' culture. But it will likely take him a little longer than that to fix their run defense. Vegas is allowing 150 scrimmage yards per game to running backs and backs who have had 18-plus touches against the Raiders are averaging 19.5 PPG. With Breece Hall averaging 20 touches per game over the past four weeks, I like him as a Top 8 back this week against the Raiders.

Aaron Jones at Pittsburgh

Aaron Jones saw a season-high 24 touches last week, his most in a game since Week 10 of last season. He also has a 16.5% target share over the past three weeks, with five-plus targets in every game. These are the kind of things that happen when you #FREEAARONJONES. Yes, we may have entered that exciting part of each football season when the Packers remember Aaron Jones is good and that they should get him the ball. Fun! If the increased workload continues, Jones should have a nice day against a Steelers defense that has allowed 100-plus rushing yards in five straight games. Pittsburgh also gives up the fifth-most yards per reception to running backs. I have Jones as a Top 12 running back play this week.

Others receiving votes: The Bills give up the fifth-highest YPC to running backs, while Javonte Williams will enter Buffalo on Monday night with 48 touches over his past two games, along with a target share of at least 15% in each of those games. … Around this time last season, the Steelers' running game started to find its footing and it seems to be happening again. This week the Steelers face a Packers defense that is bottom-10 in fantasy PPG allowed to backs. Please, no one tell Jay Croucher but quietly, since Week 3, Najee Harris is averaging 16 touches per game and has three straight games with a target share of at least 12%. … Teams facing the Cardinals average a league-high 26.1 running back touches per game this season. Arizona also ranks bottom-five in rushing touchdowns allowed to running backs. “So what a great matchup for Bijan Robinson, who Atlanta spent the 8th overall pick on, right?!” Hahahahahahahaha no. Never that. Because the world makes zero sense. Instead, you might want to flex Tyler Allgeier, who has out-touched Bijan 26-12 in the red zone this season. … As mentioned earlier, Washington leads the league in pass rate this season. The Commanders are also 6-point underdogs at Seattle this week, so those passing numbers should stay high. That puts Antonio Gibson in line as a useable flex play in a PPR league. Last week, Gibson had a season-high 11 touches and he now has back-to-back games with five receptions.

Running Backs I Hate in Week 10

Gus Edwards vs. Cleveland

Gus The Bus has been running at high speed lately. Three straight games with at least one touchdown and 17 or more fantasy points. But this week, I think Gus The Bus fails to stay at 55 mph and then explodes and only Sandra Bullock’s fantasy team will survive. Okay, maybe that’s not exactly what will happen. I probably shouldn’t do fantasy research while watching “Speed” in the background. But I do think Gus Edwards stalls this week. Cleveland has allowed only two rushing touchdowns to backs all season (tied for third-fewest), and Edwards is averaging a paltry 5.7 PPG in games in which he hasn’t scored a touchdown. The Ravens are also due for some negative rushing touchdown regression. This season, 63% of their touchdowns are on the ground (17-of-27), while that percentage was below 50% each of the previous three seasons. I mean, Lamar has to pass for a touchdown at some point, right? Right?!?!? Add in the emergence of Keaton Mitchell, which may have made this more of a three-headed committee, I have Edwards outside my Top 20 backs this week.

Jerome Ford at Baltimore

In the two games since Jerome Ford injured his ankle, he has 29 carries for just 81 yards (2.8 YPC). And over the past four weeks, Hunt has out-touched Ford 12-2 in the red zone. Woof. Wait, the Dawg Pound probably takes “woof” as a positive. My mistake. Let’s go with: barf. Barf is bad. Hashtag: analysis. Okay, glad I cleared that up. Anyway, even if Ford was playing well and getting a lot of work, this isn’t an especially great matchup. Since Week 6, Baltimore ranks Top 10 in fewest fantasy PPG allowed to running backs. I have him down at RB 26 in Week 10.

Chuba Hubbard at Chicago

They’re not exactly the 1985 Bears, but Chicago’s defense is pretty good against the run. The Bears allow a league-low 3.2 YPC to running backs this season and, over the past four weeks, the Bears are giving up the fifth-fewest fantasy PPG to backs. None of that is good news for Chuba Hubbard who, since Week 3, is averaging just 3.4 YPC and 4.3 yards per reception. Also, Miles Sanders started to get more work last week and I always feel like running backs get a little less work on Thursdays after they played on a Sunday because workload, etc. So we could see more of Sanders on Thursday night than we’re comfortable with. I have Hubbard outside my Top 25 backs this week.

Pass Catchers I Love in Week 10

DK Metcalf vs. Washington

Did you know that DK Metcalf eats three or four bags of candy a day? Or that Patrick Mahomes eats Doritos every night in bed? My point is this: the holidays are approaching and people are going to try to make you feel guilty about what you eat. Don’t let them. I say eat whatever crap you want and, who knows, you might just become a world class athlete just like DK, Patrick or me. So that’s my DK Diet take of the week. As for my DK fantasy take: he has a great matchup this week against a Washington defense that has allowed the second-most touchdowns to wide receivers this season. Washington also has allowed the most yards on deep passes, while Metcalf ranks Top 10 in aDOT. He’s also due some positive touchdown regression because, despite leading the NFL with 11 end zone targets, just two of those 11 have resulted in touchdowns. I have Metcalf as a Top 10 wide receiver play in Week 10.

Michael Pittman at New England (Germany)

Michael Pittman is getting a huge 30% target share from Gardner Minshew this season. That type of volume will do well against a New England defense that, over the past four weeks, is allowing the fourth-most PPG to wide receivers. The Patriots also give up the eighth-highest catch rate on passes below 10 air yards this season. That’s significant because Michael Pittman’s aDOT is 7.9. Add to it that the Patriots will be without cornerback J.C. Jackson in Germany due to disciplinary reasons, and Pittman is in line for a gut game in Germany. (To be clear, “gut” means “good” in German. I’m not referencing my earlier diet of candy and Doritos. Rude.) I have Pittman as WR 12 this week.

Calvin Ridley vs. San Francisco

Over the past four weeks, San Francisco is allowing the third-most PPG to wide receivers. The 49ers have also allowed the second-most receptions to perimeter receivers this season. With Calvin Ridley seeing at least eight targets in three of his past four games, I love this matchup for him against the 49ers. He’s a Top 20 play for me on Sunday.

Dalton Schultz at Cincinnati

Since Week 5, Dalton Schultz is the third-best tight end in fantasy with a 28% target share over that same stretch. Schultz might already be the greatest tight end in Texans history. Sorry, Owen Daniels, Joel Dreessen and C.J. Fiedorowicz. Hey, there’s another debate the morning shows can latch onto: greatest Texans tight end EVER. It’s ratings gold. Speaking of gold, I have Schultz as fantasy gold this week against a Bengals defense that ranks bottom-three in receptions and yards allowed to tight ends. Tight ends who have seen six-plus targets against the Bengals this season are averaging 18.5 PPG. Schultz is my TE 4 in Week 10.

Others receiving votes: Kyler Murray may be small, but he should give a big boost to Marquise Brown. In eight games with Murray last season, Brown averaged 17.2 PPG and saw a 26.7% target share. In addition to the return of his quarterback, Brown gets a positive matchup this week against a Falcons team that, over the past four weeks, is allowing the sixth-most PPG to wide receivers. … In his two games since returning from injury, Tank Dell has an 89% route participation, including a 29% target share last week. Dell has also seen 20-plus fantasy points in all three games in which he’s seen seven or more targets. … Arizona allows the third-highest catch rate to wide receivers. That’s good news for Drake London, who, assuming he’s back this week, has a 25% target share over his past five games played. … Seattle has allowed the second-highest catch rate to the slot this season. Meanwhile, over the past three games, Jahan Dotson has seen 68% of his yards and both of his touchdowns come from the slot. Even if Curtis Samuel plays this week (he’s been out most of the last two games) Dotson should get enough work to be WR 3 viable … If you’re taking a shot every time you read a bad Giants stat this column, please don’t operate any heavy machinery. The Giants allow the second-most yards per reception to tight ends. Meanwhile, Jake Ferguson had a season-high 28% target share against the Giants back in Week 1. … Over the past four weeks, Taysom Hill is averaging 18.0 PPG, making him TE 2 on a PPG basis. And it’s all because of opportunity: three straight games with 10-plus opportunities (rushes + targets), including 11 touches inside the 10-yard line over that stretch.

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Pass Catchers I Hate in Week 10

Amari Cooper at Baltimore

Since Week 4, Baltimore is allowing the second-fewest PPG to wide receivers. Over that same stretch, only two wide receivers have had more than 63 receiving yards versus the Ravens. And over their past seven games, Baltimore has allowed just two touchdowns to receivers. That feels like three strikes and you’re out to me. Or maybe three bad matchup stats and you’re out of Love List consideration. Cooper is outside my Top 25 wide receivers in Week 10.

Zay Flowers vs. Cleveland

Over his past four games, Zay Flowers has an aDOT of just 6.4 yards and more than 70% of his targets were under 10 air yards. Meanwhile, the Browns lock receivers down on short routes, allowing the fewest yards per game on throws below 10 air yards. Add to it that only once this season has a wide receiver caught more than five passes against the Browns and Flowers is outside my Top 30 WRs this week.

Jakobi Meyers vs. New York Jets

I hope you didn’t build your fantasy team around an Aidan O’Connell-Jakobi Meyers stack. Meyers has a target share below 15% so far this season from O’Connell. I know he scored last week, but I’m not counting on a long run for a touchdown again. Especially since Meyers faces a Jets defense this week that allows the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. And don’t forget: the Jets have yet to allow 45-plus receiving yards to multiple wide receivers in the same game. So if you think Davante Adams gets his this week, Jakobi Meyers almost definitely won’t – especially not with a target share below 15%. Meyers is outside my Top 35 receivers in Week 10.