What matters most: Breaking down Penn State football vs. Ohio State Buckeyes
The Nittany Lions and Ohio State Buckeyes appear remarkedly even as they prepare for battle Saturday in Columbus. Kickoff at Ohio Stadium is set for noon.
Put aside OSU's traditional domination of James Franklin's Penn State football program, winning eight of nine meetings. Or that the Buckeyes still own the advantage in their collection of 4- and 5-star recruiting talent.
The squads are more alike this year than different, statistically speaking.
From mistake-adverse, first-year starting quarterbacks to unexpectedly-pedestrian running games to special teams' concerns.
Both teams are led by defense, which is where this game should be decided.
Here's your Penn State-Ohio State breakdown:
When Penn State has the ball
The Lions have morphed into one of the most efficient — though least-explosive — operations despite a proven home-run hitting tailback and an NFL-armed quarterback.
Penn State will likely continue to try and grind out efficient drives Saturday because its comfortable doing so in the absence of a true No. 1 receiver to beat defenses deep and grab contested, difficult catches. An improved offensive line has been much more diligent at protecting QB Drew Allar than open running lanes for the ever-dangerous Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen.
The Lions may need to take more chances and accumulate more chunk plays to the end zone if they're to win in the Horseshoe. Ohio State offers a superior defense to the likes Penn State has yet faced. The Buckeyes rank third nationally in scoring defense (9.67) fourth in passing defense (154.3) and seventh in total defense (263.5).
So the Lions must take advantage of recent emerging possibilities such as the return of wideout Tre Wallace and the big-play potential tight end Theo Johnson.
The Buckeyes will pressure, as always, though they don't possess the varied game-wrecking defenders they've had in other years. Would J.T. Tuimoloau have dominated in last year's fourth quarter if All-America tackle Olu Fashanu was playing?
Fashanu, injured during that game, is operating at full-force now.
Advantage: Ohio State
When Ohio State has the ball
This should be where the game is won and lost.
As good as the Buckeyes' defense is, Penn State's has been even better. Penn State owns the pass-rushing and coverage abilities to stunt the best part of the Buckeyes, which is its two All-American caliber wide receivers in Marvin Harrison Jr. and Emeka Egbuke.
The Lions lead the nation in both passing defense (121.2) and total defense (193.7). Even more, they employ these strengths from front to back, and does so in waves.
The best thing about Manny Diaz's defenders may be how they don't seem to ever ease up, take a play off.
That should help them neuter a vastly-talented though disjointed Ohio State attack. The Buckeyes have suffered from a string of key injuries and substandard blocking.
Quarterback Kyle McCord's expected quick growth has been challenged by a banged-up running back room that hasn't produced as expected (ninth in Big Ten, 135 rushing yards per game).
He may get his running backs and receivers back on Saturday, and still can rely on underrated tight end Cade Stover, among the best in the country.
But can they possibly collect themselves and flourish against this defense, now?
Advantage: Penn State
Special teams
The Buckeyes are one of the steadier performers with solid punting and coverage and perfect field goal kicking (7-for-7). They have been ultra-conservative and unproductive as returners, though.
Could the Lions gain an upper-hand here with the recent dynamics of punt returner Daequan Hardy (two TDs vs. Massachusetts) and Nick Singleton's proven ability with kickoffs?
Also, linebacker Dom Deluca and company seem on the verge of springing a significant punt block, sooner than later.
Advantage: Penn State
Coaching
Big challenge upcoming for Ohio State's Ryan Day (51-6 in five seasons) and offensive coordinator and penultimate receivers coach Brian Hartline. They're suddenly facing some choppy waves — Penn State's potentially transcendent defense first, Michigan yet to come.
This weekend is a proving point: Are they who they always have been or not?
James Franklin, on the other hand, is still slowly trudging his program to the hilltop. The best thing he has, at least for a couple of more months, is Diaz. His defense should be just enough for them to take their biggest step forward in years.
Advantage: Even
Prediction: Penn State 24, Ohio State 17
Frank Bodani covers Penn State football for the York Daily Record and USA Today Network. Contact him at fbodani@ydr.com and follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter, @YDRPennState.
This article originally appeared on York Daily Record: Penn State football breaking down advantages vs. Ohio State
