March Madness: Which double-digit seed could be this year's Cinderella?
With the NCAA men's tournament tipping off in earnest with a full slate of games on Thursday, we pulled together a roundtable to answer burning questions that'll help you fill out your Tourney Pick'em bracket. Here are our Cinderellas, dark horses, first No. 1s to fall, best first-round bets and Final Four/champion picks.
Which double-digit seed could be this year's Cinderella?
Frank Schwab: Colgate has a sneaky clear path to the Sweet 16 for a No. 14 seed. They play a Wisconsin team that is well overseeded according to the metrics and then would get the Iowa State/LSU winner. Both of those teams haven’t been good in months. Colgate can shoot it really well and there’s a chance they’re the talk of the tournament by Sunday.
Nick Bromberg: This doesn’t seem original at all but I’m going with Loyola Chicago. They should take care of business in the first round against an Ohio State team that has struggled to end the season and get a favorable draw against Villanova in the second round. Both teams will want to keep the score low in that game and I think Loyola’s ability to shoot it from deep will be the difference. The Ramblers shoot 38% from three as a team and its top three scorers shoot at least 39% from deep.
Sam Cooper: It’s a trendy choice but South Dakota State is hard to ignore. That first-round spread versus Providence is only 2.5 points for a reason. The Jackrabbits are just such a good outside shooting team with six major contributors shooting at least 40% from long distance. They also have a strong interior scorer with Douglas Wilson and one of the best all-around players you’ve never heard of in Baylor Scheierman. If they can upset Providence, a second-round matchup with Iowa would be a ton of fun.
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Greg Brainos: Virginia Tech is coming in hot, winning 13 of their last 15 games, and I think they can keep it going against a Texas team that’s been bounced from the first round more than the barflies in “Road House.” I don’t see them getting past the Sweet 16, but I also wouldn’t be completely shocked if they made the Final Four. At 33-to-1, it’s decent value.
Pete Truszkowski: What’s a higher-seeded team’s best chance to go on a magical run? Shooting the lights out. For that reason, I’m going with the best 3-point shooting team in the country. South Dakota State shoots an unheard of 44.2% from three as a team. Their first-round matchup against Providence is an ideal draw, as the Friars were the luckiest team in the country by a wide margin according to KenPom. The betting line being only 2.5 points for a 4-13 matchup is telling. After that, a likely matchup with Iowa follows. Iowa can score, but they're 77th in defensive efficiency and 313th in Open 3 rate. The game might have a total of 180 points, but South Dakota State has the ability to outscore the Hawkeyes. After that, a matchup with Kansas is likely on tap, which will obviously be tough but when you’re shooting nearly 45% from three, you can beat anyone on any given day.
Mark Drumheller: If you are looking for a Cinderella team, make sure you do not count out the Montana State Bobcats. Every year a team like Texas Tech that possesses all the tools to make a deep run ends up with an early exit instead. Bobcats point guard Xavier Bishop does a great job getting to the paint and creating open looks on the perimeter where they shoot 37% from 3-point range. If the shots are dropping early and often enough to score a massive upset, their second-round draw of Alabama, Notre Dame or Rutgers is soft enough to make a Sweet 16 appearance a reality.
