March Madness Round of 32 Best Bets: Arizona vs Dayton, Creighton vs Oregon, Colorado vs Marquette
Vaughn Dalzell breaks down which underdogs he's backing in the Round of 32.
Arizona (-9.5) vs Dayton: O/U 149.5
Dayton needed an incredible late rally against a Nevada team that used a 16-1 run at the end of the first half to pull ahead, while Arizona was at the controversy of a -19.5 cover or a -20.5 non-cover, depending on what number you got.
While many people may be unimpressed with Dayton after the narrow win, I was impressed and can see this team knocking off No. 2-seeded Arizona.
The Wildcats are the No. 41 ranked team per Barttorvik in the past four games with a 33% three-point percentage (160th) and 19.5% offensive turnover percentage (228th). In that span, Arizona lost twice and struggled with free throws going 29-of-44 (65.9%).
Dayton's defense is scrappy and plays at one of the 10 slowest tempos in college basketball. The Flyers forced 12 turnovers against Nevada, held the Wolfpack to six free throws, and a 31.8% mark from three (7/22).
Arizona has been a common name in the Sweet 16 or Elite 8 over the past few seasons and I don't expect that to change this year. I grabbed the Flyers +9.5 at -105 odds and played the ML at +375 odds. I'd go down to +8 and +300 odds on the ML.
Pick: Dayton +9.5 (1.5u), Dayton ML (0.5u)
Creighton (-5.5) vs Oregon: O/U 146.0
Creighton went 7-of-10 from deep in the first half against Akron and a quick start to the second half helped the Blue Jays pull away in the first round, while Oregon dominated South Carolina thanks to 40 points from Jermaine Couisnard (who used to play for SC).
Creighton is on upset alert. Creighton did not get any steals against Akron, recorded four offensive rebounds, and allowed 28 three-point attempts.
Luckily for the Blue Jays, Akron went 6-of-28 from deep (21%) and only had six free throws compared to Creighton's 10-of-17 three-point effort (59%) with 20 free throw attempts (15/20 for 75%).
Luck went the way of the Blue Jay in the first round, but the Ducks are quacking and on a heater. Oregon's won five straight games with four victories by eight or fewer points and four contests coming on neutral courts.
The Ducks are No. 21 per Barttorvik over the last five games, while Creighton is No. 20 in that same span. This should be a close game with recent play, and if Oregon can limit Creighton's triples, then the Ducks are Sweet 16 bound.
I grabbed the Ducks at +5.5 and -115 odds, plus the ML at +190. I'd go down to +4 and +150 on the ML.
Pick: Oregon +5.5 (1u), Oregon ML (0.5u)
Marquette (-3.5) vs Colorado: O/U 146.5
Two of the most thrilling first-round games included both Colorado and Marquette. Now, the two meet for a chance for a Sweet 16 ticket.
Tyler Kolek looked healthy for Marquette in the win over Western Kentucky, scoring 18 points with 11 assists and six rebounds over 38 minutes. With that being said, you'd expect this spread to be higher, but the Golden Eagles struggled defensively for 30 of 40 minutes against the Hilltoppers.
Colorado's offense was insane against Florida and that's the only way of putting it. The Buffaloes are going to cause problems for the Golden Eagles defense and vice-versa.
The one area that can get Marquette caught up is rebounding. The Marquette ranks outside 250th in both offensive and defensive bounding percentages, while Colorado is top 100 in both (29th in DEF). Western Kentucky out-rebounded Marquette 42-35 and 12-10 on the offensive end in the round of 64.
I played Colorado +3.5 at -110 odds and the ML at +142. I'd go down to +2 and +125 on the ML for the Buffs.
Pick: Colorado +3.5 (1u), Colorado ML (0.5u)
Season Record: 84-80 (51.2%) -0.15units
CBB Futures In My Pocket:
1u: Houston to win the National Championship (+700)
1u: Houston to make the Final Four (+140)
1u: UConn to make the Final Four (+110)
1u: Iowa State to make the Final Four (+550)
1u: Houston to make the Elite 8 (-128)
1u: Arizona to miss the Elite 8 (-132)
1u: Marquette to miss the Sweet 16 (+116)
1u: Creighton to miss the Sweet 16 (+156)
Sprinkles Left: Dayton Final Four (+5500), Dayton Sweet 16 (+750)
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