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March Madness betting: North Carolina was 125-to-1 to win the tournament at the start

pete truszkowski
·5 min read
1

March Madness is coming to an end. In fact, the Final Four will be played in April. However, we're still without a national champion. We are down to just four teams. One of Duke, Villanova, Kansas or North Carolina will capture the title, so let's take a look at how these teams got here from a betting perspective.

Preseason championship odds

Right after Baylor won the championship game in April 2021, betting odds for the 2022 national championship were posted. Where did these teams find themselves?

  • Villanova (12-to-1)

  • Duke (14-to-1)

  • Kansas (16-to-1)

  • North Carolina (30-to-1)

Gonzaga opened as the favorite to win it all, but it bowed out earlier in the tournament. None of these teams were huge long shots when the odds got released. Villanova was tied for the third-best odds, and Kansas and Duke were not far behind. North Carolina was a bit further down, but it opened with the same odds as Michigan State and Virginia, two programs with a lot of recent success.

Odds progression over the regular season

Once the season got underway, the odds began to fluctuate a bit. Let's take a look at where these teams stood on New Year's Day and on March 1, days usually associated with the start of conference play and the start of the postseason drama.

  • Villanova (22-to-1 on Jan. 1, 20-to-1 on March 1)

  • Kansas (11-to-1 on Jan. 1, 14-to-1 on March 1)

  • Duke (+800 on Jan. 1, 12-to-1 on March 1)

  • North Carolina (66-to-1 on Jan. 1, 125-to-1 on March 1)

The main team that sticks out here is North Carolina. The Tarheels were certainly inconsistent over the course of the season and many viewed the ACC as one of the lesser major conferences this season. Once late February and early March rolled around, many had UNC on the tournament bubble and didn't even know if the Tar Heels would get the opportunity to make this run.

PHILADELPHIA, PA - MARCH 27: The North Carolina Tar Heels celebrate as time expires in the Elite Eight round of the 2022 NCAA Men
North Carolina was 125-to-1 to win it all at the start of March Madness. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/NCAA Photos via Getty Images)

Villanova, Duke and Kansas all stayed relatively consistent over the course of the season. Kansas finished tied atop the Big 12, Villanova finished 2nd in the Big East and won the conference tournament, while Duke was clearly the best team in the ACC during the regular season.

Odds moves during the tournament

Once Selection Sunday came and went, the field of 64 was set. How have these teams' odds moved over the course of the tournament?

Prior to Round 1

These were the championship odds prior to the first game of the tournament:

  • Kansas (+950)

  • Duke (14-to-1)

  • Villanova (18-to-1)

  • North Carolina (125-to-1)

Prior to Round 2

Once these teams got their first wins under their belts, how did the odds react?

  • Kansas (+800)

  • Duke (10-to-1)

  • Villanova (18-to-1)

  • North Carolina (80-to-1)

Before the Sweet 16

After surviving the first weekend of the tournament, the odds looked like this:

  • Kansas (+450)

  • Duke (11-to-1)

  • Villanova (14-to-1)

  • North Carolina (30-to-1)

Ahead of the Elite Eight

What did the betting odds look like before the Elite Eight?

  • Kansas (+275)

  • Duke (+400)

  • Villanova (+600)

  • North Carolina (+600)

What do the odds look like now?

With the Final Four now set, these are the current betting odds at BetMGM:

  • Duke (+160)

  • Kansas (+180)

  • Villanova (+475)

  • North Carolina (+500)

How did these teams perform against the number?

While wins and losses are cool, bettors love to know which teams cover the spread at a high rate. Below is the overall cover rate of the four teams remaining in the tournament:

  • Villanova: 20-15-2 (57.1%)

  • Duke: 20-16-2 (55.6%)

  • North Carolina: 20-16-1 (55.6%)

  • Kansas: 19-19-0 (50.0%)

If you're more of a totals bettor, below are the over-under record for teams over the course of the season. Which teams' games are going over at the highest rate?

  • North Carolina 21-16 (56.8%)

  • Duke 21-16-1 (55.2%)

  • Kansas 19-17-2 (52.8%)

  • Villanova 17-19-1 (47.2%)

How are these teams doing against the number in the tournament?

What have you done for me lately? How are these teams performing against the betting number in the tournament?

  • North Carolina (4-0, +63 margin of cover)

  • Villanova (4-0, +21 margin of cover)

  • Duke (3-1, +13 margin of cover)

  • Kansas (2-2, +18 margin of cover)

North Carolina and Villanova are 4-0 against the spread in the tournament. Duke is 3-1, with its one loss against the spread coming in its first round game on a relatively bad beat. Kansas is 2-2, failing to cover in wins over Creighton and Providence.

Let's take a look at how these teams are performing against the number from a totals perspective:

  • Duke (2-2, +29)

  • North Carolina (2-2, +15)

  • Kansas (1-3, -36)

  • Villanova (1-3, -55)

Duke is very close to a 3-1 over record, but bettors suffered a bad beat on Saturday night. North Carolina started with two games that flew over the total, but its last two games have gone well under. Villanova's last three games have gone under the total.

What are the lines in the Final Four?

In the Final Four, Kansas is a 4.5-point favorite over Villanova. In the other matchup, Duke is a 4.5-point favorite over North Carolina in the first tournament meeting between the ACC rivals.