How Man City can get back on track and what Arsenal will do to stop it
Man City have had a wobble - they've lost four games in the league now and if not for Liverpool's nervy slip up against Leicester, would be seven points behind.
Next up is Arsenal, a team pushing for the top four entirely capable of causing an upset at the Etihad. So, how will both managers look to gain an advantage on each other?
Man City need to raise their game
It can’t be fun playing against a brick wall most weeks but that’s what Man City often find themselves doing. Premier League teams are terrified of being torn apart and do everything to avoid it - either complacency has creeped in or opposition teams are making things harder for Man City because this season, they aren’t quite the all conquering team of 2017/18.
Pep Guardiola has lamented his side's failure to find their rhythm against weaker clubs and it does appear that their high passing tempo has dropped. City made 743.18 passes per game last season but that has fallen to 709.4 this season. Without the necessary conviction in their passes, defending teams are getting tiny chances to intercept and disrupt their approach play.
Arsenal are less likely to sit as deep as Leicester, Crystal Palace and Newcastle did. A mid-press is the most likely strategy and this will leave space for City to hit direct passes in behind, something that the forwards must constantly look for. If Arsenal press high it could lead to scoring chances for City, as defenders pass their way out from the back to reach an exposed, vulnerable Gunners midfield.
Arsenal will almost certainly attempt to the block the middle of the pitch to force City's play wide. City must make the pitch as wide possible to allow forward passes to be played through central areas, having the wingers hug the touchlines to stretch the space between defending midfielders or defenders. This frees up space between bodies to fire the ball to advanced players quickly through the middle.
The wingers must ensure they stay wide to stretch the pitch and create these passing lanes, taking care not to drift inside too early or run into dead ends. Sterling was guilty of doing this against Newcastle.
4-1-2-1-2 and how it caters for Mesut Ozil
Arsenal are great in possession but lack a killer final ball. Mesut Ozil is one of the best in Europe at making that pass but offers nothing defensively. To cater for Ozil, Emery can play three defensive-minded midfielders to provide a barrier in a 4-4-2 diamond, a formation Arsenal have used in their previous two Premier League matches.
All three of Lucas Torreira, Matteo Guendouzi and Granit Xhaka can carry the ball and play neat forward passes through the centre of the park at Premier League level - all of Arsenal’s players are good at this - the problem is finding that magic end product in the final third.
Man City are the home team and, simply, better than Arsenal. For this reason Emery will almost certainly start without Ozil in a more defensive shape.
Arsenal built for the counter-attack
Newcastle pulled off a shock win over Man City by blocking passing lanes and defending resiliently in a 5-4-1. The wide midfielders doubled up on City’s wingers in wide areas to make sure defenders were never outnumbered by rival attackers, with Ayoze Perez darting forward during attacks to a more central position beside the striker, overlapped by the right back.
Arsenal could attempt to frustrate City in a 3-4-3 shape with the forwards dropping into midfield when out of possession just as Newcastle did. If they can keep City quiet for the majority of the game, eventually cracks will appear to make counter-attacks a possibility.
Before they can race up the pitch, Arsenal need to ensure that they frustrate City with their defensive shape. The 3-4-3 can easily become a 5-4-1 with Pierre Emerick-Aubameyang dropping to a left midfield position (LM), supported by the left-back Sead Kolasinac (LB). The idea is to push play wide, then backwards and repeat until City give the ball away.
The pace of Pierre Emerick-Aubameyang, Alex Iwobi and Alexandre Lacazette will cause big problems if Man City are caught with too many players ahead of the ball. Employing a slightly deeper press suits their physical attributes - expect a mid-press or low block to ensure City leave space in behind their defensive line to suit pacy strikers.
Dealing with injuries
Laurent Koscielny may not be able to play due to a jaw injury. Sokratis, Bellerin and Holding are all definitely out while Maitland-Niles is a doubt - Arsenal don’t have (m)any defenders left and unless they wish to play Xhaka at centre-back again, will have to field a weakened back four instead of a three simply due to numbers available.
Man City’s forwards will be keen to test any vulnerability at the back, particularly Kolasinac’s tendency to drift forward and leave space vacant behind. Riyad Mahrez has often caused problems for Arsenal in the past and may well start on the right wing to test this theory, with Sterling running at whoever has to fill in at right-back.
The Arsenal centre-backs must watch for City’s trademark move in particular; a winger gets to the line and fakes to cross low into the box, before cutting the pass back to the penalty spot, or edge of the box for a waiting forward to slot past a bamboozled goalkeeper.
