Mad Bets: Which underdog has the best value in Week 9?
Minty Bets & Matt Gothard break down which underdog has the best value in Week 9 of the 2020 NFL season.
Video Transcript
MINTY BETS: It's week 9 of the NFL, and lately underdogs have been cashing both against the spread and, if you're lucky, on the money line. There is a chance that they could regress. But with this current line, we thought we'd take a look at the five biggest underdogs for this week. Matt Gothard, take it away.
MATT GOTHARD: All right, well, nobody loves underdog money lines more than me. So let's take a look at the top 5 underdogs for this weekend. Starting with the Bears, catching six points against the Titans. But the money line there is plus 220.
Next, you got the Jaguars that plus 240 against the Texans. The Jets, ugh, plus 270 against the New England Patriots. Then moving up quite a bit, you got the Panthers plus 475 against everybody's favorite Chiefs. And the lowly Dallas Cowboys-- plus 625 against the Steelers.
When you look at all these teams, there has to be some value out there. I don't-- I don't know if any of these teams are going to win this week. But when you do look at them, you have to kind of pick what teams could you see winning an NFL game right now? And, you know, the Cowboys and the Jets-- I like to stay away from them. I know that they're-- you know, they're playing against some teams that they may be able to pull it off against.
We have our producer, Ken brown, who's a little bit worried somehow about the Steelers this weekend. I still think, though, the Steelers will take care of business against the Cowboys. But when you look at the Bears here with a 30% win percentage, according to Advanced Analytics, plus 220's not too bad. It also makes the plus 6 look pretty-- pretty tasty in my mind. Minty, is there anything that's sticking out to you when you look at this graph?
MINTY BETS: Yeah, I actually like the Panthers catching 11 here against the Chiefs in Kansas City. Now, we know the Chiefs are known to be a very explosive offensive team, but the Panthers have lost their last three games by no more than eight points. And they've got Christian McCaffrey back hopefully.
This is kind of a look ahead spot for the Chiefs, though. I think that they're playing for their bye next week. And then they have a revenge game against the Raiders the week after that. So they might take it easy on the Panthers, and I think the one with the most value here for me is going to be the Panthers catching 11 points.
MATT GOTHARD: Yeah, the Chiefs have really hurt me as a double digit favorite this year. So I agree with you on that. It also could be a place where you look at the Panthers first half money line in a situation where the Chiefs don't feel the same pressure to win. You could sneak one out there.
But let's-- let's flip it now. Let's take a look at all of the five favorites and their prices. The Titans-- minus 260. The Texans are minus 280. The Patriots-- minus 330. Chiefs, as we're just talking about, minus 650. And the Steelers-- man, it's really hard to find any value there at minus 950. I feel like that's either going to be take the 14 points, or don't bet that at all.
You know, one-- one note that I wanted to put out there is even if you parlay the money line of the Patriots, Chiefs, and Steelers this week, you still don't get to even money. So I just think that there's not a whole lot of value on these top favorites. And especially, you know, if I was going to look at one, I'd say maybe the Texans against the Jaguars. But it's really tough. Is there anything that's sticking out to you here, Minty?
MINTY BETS: This might sound square. But if anything, if I were to take a heavy favorite this week, it would be the Steelers laying 14 points against the Cowboys. I hate to say it. I'm not going to do it. But yeah, that will be my only one, but there's just no value there for me.
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