What’s the likelihood of UNC finishing undefeated? Let’s see what ESPN has to say
UNC is just a basketball school, right?
If you’ve been watching college football this year, you’ll realize the Tar Heels are making the case to also be considered as a football school.
Carolina’s 5-0 start, its best since 1997, is fueled by a resurgent Drake Maye, a suddenly-deep and talented wide receiver room, Omarion Hampton’s breakout Sophomore campaign, plus the defense.
The defense? Yes, you read that right. Nine sacks against South Carolina Week 1, 13 second half points between Weeks 1, 3, 4 and 5, much-improved pressure against opposing quarterbacks and a slew of transfers, highlighted by Alijah Huzzie and Amari Gainer.
UNC downed the Gamecocks, App State (close call), Minnesota, Pitt and Syracuse en route to being one of the ACC’s three undefeated teams (Florida State, Louisville). The Tar Heels are in the thick of contending for the conference crown, with their next task Miami on Saturday night (7:30 p.m. ET, ABC).
UNC will host UVA for its third straight home game next weekend, then hit the road for a date with its kryptonite, Georgia Tech, on Saturday, Oct. 28. Carolina will host Campbell (Nov. 4) and archrival Duke (Nov. 11) to close out its home slate, then travel to Clemson (Nov. 18) and rival N.C. State (Nov. 25) to end its regular season.
It’s always fun predicting the final scores of each matchup. We’re not going to do that today, but let’s take a look instead at UNC’s likelihood of winning each game, according to ESPN:
Miami (FL) (62 percent)
Miami is, no-doubt, Carolina’s toughest home clash remaining on its regular-season schedule.
The Hurricanes combine a high-octane offense with one of the country’s better defensive units.
ESPN gives UNC a 62 percent chance to beat the Hurricanes.
University of Virginia (94 percent)
Poor Virginia.
The Hoos’ lone win came last weekend against in-state, FCS rival William and Mary. UVA came close in a couple other contests – James Madison (36-35 home loss), N.C. State (24-21 road loss) and Boston College (27-24 road loss).
Not only their on-field struggles, but the Cavaliers are playing with heavy hearts. Three of their former players were killed in gunfire last year.
ESPN gives UNC a 94 percent chance to beat one of its oldest rivals.
Georgia Tech (78 percent)
The Yellow Jackets are riding high from an upset, 23-20 victory over Miami (FL) last weekend.
Haynes King is amongst the ACC’s most productive quarterbacks, leading the conference with 1,636 passing yards and 16 touchdowns.
Carolina always seems to struggle with Georgia Tech, losing four of its past five matchups in the series. The Yellow Jackets came into Chapel Hill last year and stunned the Tar Heels, 21-17, beginning a streak of four consecutive Tar Heel losses.
Despite UNC’s struggles with Georgia Tech, ESPN is giving UNC a 78 percent chance to win.
Campbell University (99 percent)
Campbell will pay UNC money to, essentially, get destroyed in November.
The Camels will make the hour drive up to Chapel Hill on Saturday, Nov. 4, hoping to put a scare into the Tar Heels.
Unless Carolina players forget to wake up and train during the week, they should dominate the Camels.
ESPN gives UNC a 99 percent chance to top Campbell.
Duke (66.7%)
The two teams will renew a rivalry in Chapel Hill and there’s a chance that both teams could be unbeaten in the ACC. We are likely heading for a primetime battle between the Tar Heels and Blue Devils, setting the stage for a huge game.
This could have serious implications on the ACC title game as well.
Clemson (49 percent)
This isn’t the same Clemson squad that won the 2017 and 2019 National Championships, but nonetheless a tough one.
The Tigers lost a game they had no business losing in Week 1 – 28-7 at Duke. Granted, the Blue Devils are good this year, but Clemson should’ve won by at least a touchdown.
Clemson nearly shocked Florida State in overtime, yet the Seminoles escaped with a victory.
Even with UNC playing its best football and Clemson playing its worst in years, ESPN gives the Tar Heels just a 49 percent chance to win in Death Valley.
N.C. State (78 percent)
When Brennan Armstrong transferred into Raleigh from UVA, he was expected to give the Wolfpack a much-needed boost at quarterback.
Instead, he’s now backing up M.J. Morris.
N.C. State isn’t playing bad football, but not great football, either. The Wolfpack are 4-2, but struggled to beat a 1-win UConn squad in their opener and a 1-win UVA squad on Sept. 22.
Despite State winning the past two matchups in dramatic fashion, ESPN is giving UNC a 78 percent chance to win this year’s regular-season finale.
