Liberty-New Mexico State football preview: Predictions, odds, how to watch C-USA title game
College football championship week is here and 11 FBS conferences will decide their champions on Friday and Saturday. Conference USA kicks things off on Friday in Lynchburg, Virginia with the No. 22 Liberty Flames (12-0) taking on the New Mexico State Aggies (10-3) for the title.
Liberty's one of just five FBS teams to complete an undefeated regular season in 2023. The Flames' offense is sixth in points per game (40.1) behind dual threat quarterback Kaidon Salter. He's scored 40 touchdowns combined (29 passing, 11 rushing) and thrown for 2,431 yards in 2023 while ranking fourth in the FBS in passer rating (179.2). Salter and the offense have kept the Flames well in front in most games. Only two wins in the regular season were by one score: Week 6's 21-16 win over Sam Houston State and Week 8's 42-35 win over Middle Tennessee.
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On the other side, New Mexico State's made the title game thanks to a seven-game winning streak to close the regular season. Since the Aggies' 20-17 loss in Week 4 to Hawai'i, they've been perfect, including a dominant 31-10 over Auburn in Week 12. New Mexico State's own dual-threat quarterback, Diego Pavia, threw for 2,727 yards and 23 touchdowns while leading the team in rushing yards (806) and touchdowns (five) as well. Unlike Liberty, the Aggies' defense is the team's biggest strength in 2023. That unit's allowed more than 17 points just twice during the winning streak and rank 21st in the country in points allowed per game (19.7).
This is just the seventh time the two teams have met. Liberty won their regular season matchup 33-17 but that was back in Week 2 of the season. Each side will be vying for the conference's top bowl game this December.
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Conference USA championship game predictions roundup
ESPN: Liberty has an 83.2% chance to win its first Conference USA title
ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) puts Liberty firmly at the top of Conference USA with a 3.8 rating. The Aggies aren't even in the top three at -5.6. Their rating is closer to 3-9 UTEP than Liberty in first. The game's also being played at the Liberty's home stadium where the Flames have lost just twice in the last two years combined. That gives Liberty a big edge.
VSiN: Liberty -10.5
Adam Burke writes, "Both teams are better now than they were then, but I don’t think New Mexico State can keep up with Liberty. The Flames run the ball so effectively that they can put the game away in the second half by continuing to add on to a lead or at least eating up chunks of clock."
Sporting News: Liberty -10.5
Caleb Tallman says, "give New Mexico State credit for turning their season around and getting a chance at revenge in the Conference USA Championship. Liberty is a juggernaut and has dominated every opponent this season. That will not change now, and while the Aggies may keep it close for a while, the Flames will pull away in the second half to win the Conference USA Championship."
Betsided: New Mexico State +10.5
Reed Wallach writes, "[Liberty] has had a special season, but New Mexico State is simply far better than they were earlier this season. The team is off of beating Auburn as a three touchdown underdog and a bowl eligible Jacksonville State team as a home dog. The market can't catch up to the Aggies, I'm happy to grab double digits with the dog in a title game."
How to Watch Conference USA championship game: TV channel and streaming
When: Friday, Dec. 1, 7:00 p.m. ET
Where: Williams Stadium, Lynchburg, Virginia
Cable TV: CBS Sports Network
Streaming: CBS app; FuboTV
How to watch: Catch the latest football action on Fubo
NCAAF odds championship week: New Mexico State Aggies at Liberty Flames
The Flames are heavily favored to win their first Conference USA title, according to the BetMGM college football odds. Looking to wager? Check out the best mobile sports betting apps offering betting promos in 2023.
Spread: Liberty (-10.5)
Moneyline: Liberty (-450); New Mexico State (+340)
Over/under: 56.5 points
New Mexico State Aggies football 2023 schedule and results
Week 0: Sat. 08/26: New Mexico State 30-41 Massachusetts Final
Week 1: Sat. 09/02: New Mexico State 58-21 Western Illinois Final
Week 2: Sat. 09/09: New Mexico State 17-33 Liberty Final
Week 3: Sat 09/16: New Mexico State 27-17 New Mexico Final
Week 4: Sat. 09/23: New Mexico State 17-20 Hawai'i Final
Week 5: Sat. 09/30: Bye
Week 6: Wed. 10/04: New Mexico State 34-17 Florida International Final
Week 7: Wed. 10/11: New Mexico State 27-13 Sam Houston State Final
Week 8: Wed. 10/18: New Mexico State 28-7 UTEP Final
Week 9: Tue. 10/24: New Mexico State 27-24 Louisiana Tech Final
Week 10: Sat. 11/04: New Mexico State 13-7 Middle Tennessee Final
Week 11: Sat. 11/11: New Mexico State 38-29 Western Kentucky Final
Week 12: Sat. 11/18: New Mexico State 31-10 Auburn Final
Week 13: Sat. 11/25: New Mexico State 20-17 Jacksonville State Final
Week 14: Fri. 12/01: New Mexico State at Liberty, 7:00 p.m., ET, CBS Sports Network
Liberty Flames football 2023 schedule and results:
Week 1: Sat. 09/02: Liberty 34-24 Bowling Green Final
Week 2: Sat. 09/09: Liberty 33-17 New Mexico State Final
Week 3: Sat 09/16: Liberty 55-27 Buffalo Final
Week 4: Sat. 09/23: Liberty 38-6 Florida International Final
Week 5: Sat. 09/29: Bye
Week 6: Thurs. 10/05: Liberty 21-16 Sam Houston State Final
Week 7: Tue. 10/10: Liberty 31-13 Jacksonville State Final
Week 8: Tue. 10/17: Liberty 42-35 Middle Tennessee Final
Week 9: Tue. 10/24: Liberty 42-29 Western Kentucky Final
Week 10: Sat. 11/04: Liberty 56-30 Louisiana Tech Final
Week 11: Sat. 11/11: Liberty 38-10 Old Dominion Final
Week 12: Sat. 11/18: Liberty 49-25 Massachusetts Final
Week 13: Sat. 11/25: Liberty 42-28 UTEP Final
Week 14: Fri. 12/01: Liberty vs. New Mexico State, 7:00 p.m., ET, CBS Sports Network
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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: New Mexico State vs Liberty predictions for CUSA title game Friday
