Leftovers & Links: Bowl season roster attrition may have helped Notre Dame's Sun Bowl chances on Friday

You can be forgiven if you have forgotten Notre Dame has a game this week, let alone on Friday.

Between outgoing transfers (most notably receivers Rico Flores, Tobias Merriweather and Chris Tyree), high-profile incoming transfers (Clemson receiver Beaux Collins and Duke quarterback Riley Leonard), bowl-game opt outs, coaching staff changes, National Signing Day and, oh that’s right, Christmas … the Sun Bowl on Friday (2 ET on CBS) may have been overlooked.

Let’s try to recap the month of personnel moves in order to help frame the No. 16 Irish matchup with No. 19 Oregon State, a game in which Notre Dame remains a 6-point favorite, a number that fell through -7 when Irish quarterback Sam Hartman opted out of the game in El Paso.

Actually, let’s start there, in order to frame the immediate impact of those personnel moves.

If the Irish and the Beavers had met in November on a neutral field, bookmakers would have made Notre Dame about a 4.5-point favorite. In other words, Oregon State has lost more to the transfer portal and opt-outs than the Irish have, not too surprising when remembering the Beavers have lost both their No. 1 quarterback (DJ Uiagalelei) and No. 2 quarterback (Aidan Chiles), as well as primary running back Damien Martinez.

Of course, Notre Dame is also without its starting quarterback and lead running back, but the difference is in the reserves. The Irish have a fleet of talented running backs, and sophomore quarterback Steve Angeli warrants more credit than Beavers’ third-stringer Ben Gulbranson, even if the latter did start most of 2022.

With that context, perhaps the better way to phrase the attrition among transfers and opt-outs is to say Notre Dame’s dropoff from the players lost is that much less than Oregon State’s dropoff. The month of personnel turnover has likely been to the Irish advantage heading into this postseason exhibition.

Players within Notre Dame’s two-deep that have transferred or opted-out:
— Starting quarterback Sam Hartman (24 touchdowns, with another three on the ground, while completing 63.5 percent of his passes at 8.9 yards per pass attempt)
— Junior running back Audric Estimé (a program-record 18 rushing touchdowns and 1,341 rushing yards)
— Senior receiver Chris Tyree (26 catches for 484 yards and three touchdowns)
— Freshman receiver Rico Flores Jr. (27 catches for 392 yards and one touchdown)
— Sophomore receiver Tobias Merriweather (14 catches for 284 yards and two touchdowns)
— Sophomore tight end Holden Staes (15 catches for 176 yards and four touchdowns)
— Junior left tackle and unanimous All-American Joe Alt
— Junior right tackle Blake Fisher
— Fifth-year center and three-year starter Zeke Correll

Pause right there and recognize that is eight starters from Notre Dame’s November offense, along with starting right guard Rocco Spindler (knee injury).

— Fifth-year defensive end Nana Osafo-Mensah (20 tackles with 5.5 for loss including three sacks)
— Fifth-year linebacker Marist Liufau (44 tackles with six for loss including three sacks)
— Fifth-year cornerback Cam Hart (21 tackles with three for loss as well as four pass breakups)
— Veteran nickel back Thomas Harper (39 tackles with six for loss including two sacks as well as three pass breakups)
— Reserve safeties Antonio Carter and Ramon Henderson (22 tackles combined with one Henderson interception)

Ponder those defensive losses — including three starters in Liufau, Hart and Harper — to best understand how Notre Dame has gained an advantage against Oregon State despite the extent of transfers and opt-outs.

The Beavers do not throw the ball often, ranking No. 82 in the country in that regard when factoring in game state (score, time, down, distance, field position, etc.), per cfb-graphs.com. When they do throw the ball, it is with only moderate success and largely driven by explosive plays. And that was with Uiagalelei’s strong arm taking the snap.

When Gulbranson started the majority of Oregon State’s games in 2022, that passing offense was even weaker, ranking No. 95 in the country in the regular season in expected points added per dropback. Thus, the Beavers ran even more often, 8.8 percent more often than would be expected, among the 20 most ground-based offenses in the country last season. Gulbranson averaged just 7.5 yards per pass attempt, throwing only nine touchdowns despite being the primary Oregon State quarterback in nine games.

Of those six departed Irish defensders, only one was a front-seven starter, and by keeping both JD Bertrand and Jack Kiser in the fold for the week (and Kiser for 2024), Notre Dame mitigated the effects of losing Liufau’s range on the second level.

Oregon State’s offense may have lost too much to produce against the Irish defense, inarguably one of the best in the country and far more intact than the Notre Dame offense.

For that matter, and for the sake of thoroughness, the Irish defensive coaching staff is entirely intact, as well, while the offensive staff is currently led by quarterbacks coach Gino Guidugli as the interim offensive coordinator with newly-hired receivers coach Mike Brown joining the operation on the fly.

ON REPORTED OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR HIRE MIKE DENBROCK
FootballScoop.com’s John Brice reported some more details on Denbrock — a hiring from LSU possible in large part because while Denbrock had agreed to a new contract with the Tigers, he had not yet signed the new contract, a pertinent distinction given the problematic order of operations in Notre Dame’s attempt to hire an offensive coordinator a year ago.

Per Brice, Denbrock received a four-year offer from South Bend worth about $9 million, should the contract be fulfilled.

Suffice it to say, that is one of the larger assistant coach contracts in the country.

INSIDE THE IRISH
— And In That Corner ... A look at new Notre Dame transfer quarterback Riley Leonard from the Duke perspective
— Gerad Parker leaves for Troy head coach gig; Notre Dame looking for third offensive coordinator of Freeman Era
— Notre Dame to hire LSU offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock for his third stint with the Irish
— Landing five receivers this month, including a trio of four-star recruits, changes Notre Dame’s 2024
— Four-star QB CJ Carr already practicing with the Irish
— Five-star Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa leads Notre Dame’s trio of linebackers
— Four offensive linemen sign with Irish in Class of 2024
— RB Audric Estimé declares for the NFL draft, will not play in the Sun Bowl vs Oregon State
— ND continues to forgo younger kickers, landing South Carolina transfer Mitch Jeter

OUTSIDE READING
— How Notre Dame is hiring Mike Denbrock from LSU: An unsigned extension, a record deal
— Steve Angeli focused on ND’s 10th victory over new-found fame, future
— How freshman Charles Jagusah is approaching his first start at Notre Dame
— Javontae Jean-Baptiste ready to lead Notre Dame in Sun Bowl
— Sun Bowl win would mean the world to Notre Dame S DJ Brown
— Jack Kiser’s decision to return to Notre Dame in 2024 is one for the ages
— Is college football ready to get out of the stone age with signals? Bowl trial run with helmet communication showing promise
— Scouting Riley Leonard: ACC coaches weigh in
— Perimeter speed heading to Notre Dame

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