LaLiga: Can Valencia mount a genuine title challenge this season?

On the 5th of May 2002 at La Rosaleda in Malaga, black and white flags were out in force. The traditional sound of fireworks and firecrackers going off all over the city were heard as players embraced each other in the middle of the pitch. Those fans who weren’t waving flags, or who were outside the stadium in local bars, were calling their loved ones back home. Valencia were LaLiga champions – 31 years after their last league triumph.

It only took them another two years to win it again.

Since then Valencia haven’t really been involved in the title fight. Due to disruptions on and – largely – off the field Valencia are more commonly in the tussle for a Champions League spot and nothing else. In this time of upheaval and change, Atletico Madrid overtook them as the number three side in Spain. As for Champions League qualification, they’ve only managed to do that once in the last four seasons.

Yet there’s no denying the swagger is back at Valencia under Marcelino. Despite only being nine games into the season, Los Che remain unbeaten and sit second in the table. And it isn’t like their success can be attributed to a favourable fixture list either. They’ve already faced three of last season’s top four, as well as a local derby at Levante. This a genuine team and one with ambitions to re-establish Valencia amongst the best teams in Spain on merit, not past reputation.

The real question is whether Valencia will be able to sustain their fine early season form until May. Do they have the necessary quality and structure to go head-to-head with the best? Is the squad strong enough to cope with a few injuries, which commonly occur as tiredness kicks in? And, deep down, does this set of players truly believe they stand a chance of winning the league?

Let’s take a look at some key factors.

The Coach

Marcelino is one of the most underrated coaches in Spain. Similar to perhaps another former Valencia man in Unai Emery, his name was often missing when big jobs became available. He’s well respected but not enough to be handed the reigns of leading an elite side hoping to conquer both domestic and European competitions. His record is pretty damn good.

He’s earned promotion to LaLiga with Recreativo de Huelva, Real Zaragoza and Villarreal. At Racing Santander he saw them qualify for the UEFA Cup, beating Manchester City 3-1 on the way, but cruelly missing out on the knockout rounds via goal difference. With Villarreal he took them to the brink of the Europa League final only to fall at the semi-final stage to Liverpool.

When you look at Marcelino’s record overall, he’s a serial overachiever. Sometimes for coaches who demand so much of their players, it can cause mutiny. But for Marcelino he manages to improve the ones at his disposal whilst also handing opportunities for those previously out in the cold. We’re already seeing further signs of that at Valencia.

I suppose the one criticism is that for all of his improvements at those previously mentioned sides, he doesn’t have a trophy to his name. But anyone who has had the pleasure of speaking to the man himself, or listening to what he has to say, will know he isn’t a person to demand sympathy. He’s highly determined and desperate to reach the top through pure hard work. At Valencia, maybe he’s ready to end his trophy drought.

The best teams need solid foundations

It’s safe to say Valencia had one of the worst defences in the league last season. The loss of Nicolas Otamendi in the previous campaign hurt, but to lose Shkodran Mustafi as well left a huge hole at centre back. It also didn’t help that the solution to this was throwing around sizeable fees for defenders who ultimately couldn’t adapt or weren’t given time to.

It came as no surprise to see Valencia invest heavily in established defenders to shore up that leaky backline. Martin Montoya and Jose Luis Gaya are fine full backs but to truly shine they need help from those in the centre. Gabriel Paulista, Jeison Murillo, Ruben Vezo and a rejuvenated Ezequiel Garay now offer not only depth but a solid base to work from. Murillo in particular has hit the ground running.

Communication is key for Marcelino and no more so than in defence. If someone doesn’t understand what you’re asking of them or hear the shout to push up, the consequences can be brutal. Toni Lato and Nacho Vidal, two academy starlets, are now regular members of the first team squad and slot in perfectly when called upon.

Four clean sheets in nine games is okay but there’s also room for improvement. Another factor in the success in defence is the arrival of Neto. A few fans, notably from outside of Spain, were surprised to see penalty king Diego Alves leave Valencia this summer. However his high wage, plus being 32, was against him. Neto has stepped into the role with consummate ease. Similar to Simone Zaza, the trust of the coach is paramount to Neto and he knows that he has Marcelino’s backing.

Unless your last name’s Sherwood, a good defensive midfielder is essential

When Javi Fuego left on a free transfer the most baffling decision was to not replace him. So many attacking midfielders came in over a 2-3 year period. Then, for some reason, they were converted into holding midfielders. It made no sense and that was evident on the pitch. Enzo Perez and Dani Parejo can’t sit and shield but that was their main role under previous coaches.

Geoffrey Kondogbia’s career might have hit the rocks at Inter Milan but he’s returned as good as ever. He was the anchor which held Sevilla together in his previous LaLiga stint. At Valencia, it’s a similar story. Not only is he capable of breaking up attacks and putting pressure on the opposition, he’s key at starting counterattacks too.

In that sense he’s comparable to Steven N’Zonzi, who is capable of fulfilling more than one ‘standard’ role. N’Zonzi is valued at €40m – his buyout clause – but Kondogbia will join Valencia for just €25m. A bargain in the current transfer climate.

The knock-on effect of Kondogbia’s presence in the centre is the freedom it gives to Dani Parejo. The Spanish playmaker often gets a tough time from the crowd but this season he’s been nothing short of brilliant. That’s in large part due to having a man alongside him who can cover the defensive side of the game.

Do they have the necessary firepower to match their competition?

It would’ve taken a brave man to have looked at Valencia’s attacking options and said they would score goals for fun. Rodrigo Moreno was a winger-cum-striker-cum-attacking midfielder. Without a position to call his own, the game passed him by. Contrast that with the phenomenal start to life under Marcelino and he’s like a player reborn. The recall to the Spain squad is just reward for his fine form.

Simone Zaza, a flop at West Ham and guilty of a terrible penalty miss for Italy, didn’t set the world on fire last season. When Valencia made his transfer permanent more than a few people questioned splashing out so much on the Italian. Once again, the decision has already been fully vindicated. Eight goals in nine games and he looks as good as any striker in the country.

Santi Mina is another player who could’ve easily left the club in the summer. A youngster with bags of potential but one who had struggled to really make his mark at the club. Instead he knuckled down, gained the trust of Marcelino, and continues to improve when given a chance.

The three forwards have 16 LaLiga goals between them. This is more than Real Madrid’s attackers as well as Barcelona’s.

Is the squad depth good enough to maintain a title challenge?

This is arguably the toughest criteria for Valencia. The centre of midfield is a concern because Kondogbia and Parejo don’t have natural replacements. People can fill in for the odd game or two, but no one else fits their profile and what they bring to the team. Losing either one would greatly impact Valencia’s chances of picking up points.

Up front, while the goals are being shared around, there’s really only one pure striker and that’s Zaza. Sure, Mina and Rodrigo can play together and work but neither are strong enough to bully defenders like Zaza. You would worry that should the Italian pick up an injury it’d be easier for opponents to defend against them.

Similarly in the wide roles, Goncalo Guedes is an essential starter. The PSG loanee is earning plenty of plaudits – all justifiable – but there’s a significant difference between him and Andreas Pereira. The Manchester United man is showing glimpses of what he’s capable of but you can already feel Guedes is on another level. And that’s not a slight at Pereira, far from it, more how special Guedes is and the threat he offers particularly on the counter.

The verdict

You sense a full-on title challenge is maybe coming a little too early in Marcelino’s masterplan. A fine start to the season has naturally seen expectations and belief rise but it should also be treated with caution. There will be bumps along the road and how they respond will be vitally important.

In saying that, while Valencia are flying high they should enjoy the moment and see where it takes them. The team is under no pressure to challenge for the title and the longer the season goes with them up there, why not dare to dream?

And how great is it for a club the size of Valencia to dream about winning a title? It sure beats worrying about getting relegated.