Keys to the game and Sal’s prediction for Buffalo Bills vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
TAMPA, Fla. - Josh Allen was asked earlier this week whatever happened to the Buffalo Bills’ mojo.
“We’ve still got it,” Allen said nonchalantly.
That seems a bit of a stretch given the way the past two months have gone with Buffalo losing four of seven games to drop behind the New England Patriots in the AFC East, and now facing a huge challenge Sunday afternoon when they meet the defending Super Bowl champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Allen and several of his teammates reiterated that the team is still loose, still confident, still of the belief that it can get the ship righted after it was literally blown off course Monday night by the Patriots and continue the push to a playoff berth.
“We don’t have those guys that mope around or get down, we’ve got leaders who aren’t necessarily captains but they’re leaders on this team,” wide receiver Stefon Diggs said. “Nobody likes to lose. I’m a real sore loser and I always want to get the taste out of my mouth. I feel like that’s kind of the mantra of this team.”
If the Bills do indeed still possess some of the mojo they had almost all of 2020 and during the first one-third of this year, they’re going to need every ounce of it when they come face to face with Tom Brady, the man who has tortured the Bills for two decades and would like nothing more than to continue his otherworldly mastery of them.
Here’s my keys to the game:
1. The Buffalo Bills should throw it all day
The forecast calls for temperatures in the mid-80s with a light, warm breeze. In other words, perfect conditions for Allen and his assortment of receivers to perhaps do some meaningful damage through the air which was impossible Monday night.
Forget running the ball. It’s pointless right now, and never mind that the Bills offensive line can’t block in the run, and the RBs lack any semblance of consistent play-to-play production. No one runs on the Bucs as they rank second in the league in rushing yards allowed (84.3) and seventh in yards per attempt (4.1), and it's not going to matter for the Bills that guard Jon Feliciano was activated off injured reserve Saturday afternoon and will likely play.
They have massive DTs Vita Vea and Ndamukong Suh clogging the middle and they allow physical and athletic LBs Devin White and Lavonte David, who are tackling machines, to fill the gaps and make plays. Using Allen on some designed runs would seem to be the only way the Bills can find some success on the ground, but for some reason, Brian Daboll has been hesitant to do that.
The Bucs have dealt with injuries and suspensions to their secondary and have been vulnerable through the air, not that it has mattered because they just unleash Brady and outscore everyone. They have nine games where they scored at least 27 points and won eight of those, so shootouts are right up their alley.
Last week the Bucs had their top three CBs on the field together for the first time since Week 1 with Carlton Davis, Sean Murphy-Bunting and Jamel Dean. Dean went out with a concussion, but he practiced late in the week and is expected to play. There are ongoing issues at safety, though, with Jordan Whitehead out and Mike Edwards suspended as part of the false vaccination card scandal. There has been talk that aging CB Richard Sherman may have to take snaps at safety in a pinch to help out Antoine Winfield Jr. and Andrew Adams.
The Bills have the weapons to win against this secondary, especially if they go four-wide and get Gabriel Davis on the field. However, Allen will need protection and the prospects of that are pretty sketchy. The Bucs roll out edge rushers Shaq Barrett (team-high 7.5 sacks) and Jason Pierre-Paul, plus Suh (6 sacks) and Vea, giving them as good a front four as there is in the NFL. They can also bring in rookie Joe Tryon-Shoyinka and William Gholston as part of their rotation.
The Bucs have 15 sacks in the last four games and they aren’t even using many blitz concepts to generate pressure.They play mostly man coverage and rush four but when they do blitz, watch out for White who has 31 pressures and 12 QB hits this season and is one of the best blitzers in the NFL.
2. Some way, somehow the Buffalo Bills have to slow Tom Brady and crew
Just when the Bills thought they were rid of Brady, wouldn’t you know it, they get the NFC South teams on their schedule in 2021 which means having to defend the guy they’ve pretty much never been able to defend, let alone beat. And, to make matters worse, Brady’s old partner in decimation, Rob Gronkowski, came out of his one-year retirement and relocated to Tampa to join forces and lead the Bucs to the NFL title last year.
They are two of the greatest players in NFL history and they have feasted on the Bills as 12 of their 90 TDs together have come against Buffalo. Yet they are only two cogs in an offensive machine that leads the NFL in scoring and passing yards and is second in total yards. Brady leads the NFL in completions (347), attempts (508), yards (3,771) and TDs (34). Despite playing only seven games, Gronk has six of those TDs. He’s a matchup nightmare no matter which Bills defender ends up in coverage, plus he remains a force as a blocker in the run game.
WR Mike Evans is another physical mismatch for the Bills, a 6-foot-5, 231-pound beast who is going to win just about every contested ball (he has 10 TDs), especially now that he won’t have to deal with CB Tre’Davious White. His absence wasn’t an issue last week, but it figures to be a major problem on Sunday. Dane Jackson, be on alert.
The Bucs most productive WR has been slot man Chris Godwin who has a team-high 82 catches for 949 yards, so NCB Taron Johnson will need to be particularly sharp against probably his toughest assignment of the season.
Tampa Bay doesn’t bother much with the ground game (25th in the league), but when it does, Leonard Fournette has become a key component to the offense as he’s averaging 4.4 yards per rush. What has really been a surprise, though, is that he has 58 receptions (most for any RB in the league) for 402 yards, making him a legitimate dual threat that LBs Matt Milano and Tremaine Edmunds must contain.
Buffalo’s defensive line was pushed around by the Patriots, and it won’t be much different against a Bucs offensive line that has allowed Brady to be sacked just 14 times all season, led in part by former Hobart standout Ali Marpet. Part of that is Brady’s ability to get rid of the ball quickly, so the Bills would be wise to rush four, cover with seven and hope for the best because if they blitz, they aren’t getting to Brady, and he’ll probably burn them on hot reads.
3. Who will step up on special teams for the Buffalo Bills?
Sean McDermott declined to answer that question this week, so we don’t know what’s going on. Will Isaiah McKenzie get the job back after being benched the last two games? How about rookie Marquez Stevenson, who made his NFL debut against the Saints but bobbled a punt and joined McKenzie on the bench against the Patriots?
Last week Matt Breida was back for kickoffs and Micah Hyde for punts, but that was mostly because of the crazy wind and McDermott not trusting McKenzie and Stevenson. I would expect one of those two will reclaim the return duties.
Tyler Bass will welcome the kicking conditions in Tampa compared to the fiasco that took place Monday when he missed from 33 yards thanks to a nor’easter of a gust. For the Bucs, Ryan Succop is a reliable veteran who has gone 15 of 18 on field goals and 44 of 47 on extra points.
4. Other key points to consider in Buffalo Bills vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers matchup
► Sorry to remind everyone of this, but Brady is 32-3 as a starter against the Bills, obviously all of that during his time with New England.
► If Brady throws for 229 more to reach 4,000, he’ll join Peyton Manning (14) as the only players with at least 4,000 passing yards in 13 career seasons. And if he completes 18 passes, he’ll move to No. 1 on the all-time list, passing Drew Brees who had 7,142. Finally, if the Bucs win, it would give Brady 19 seasons with at least 10 QB wins, five more than runner-up Manning.
► Last week, Gronkowski recorded his 20th career game with at least two touchdown receptions. Only former Charger Antonio Gates (21) has more among tight ends.
► Barrett leads all players in the NFL since 2019 with 11 strip sacks.
► According to NextGenStats, Allen has a perfect passer rating when targeting posts (158.3), going 19 of 23 for 461 yards and 6 TDs.
► Also according to Next Gen Stats, Milano has a 16.7% pressure rate and his 10 QB pressures rank third among off-ball LBs. And in coverage, he’s allowing just 3.7 yards per target when he’s the closest defender, best among all LBs targeted at least 25 times.
► Allen is the only player in NFL history with more than 90 passing TDs and 25 rushing TDs in the first four seasons of his career.
► Diggs’ 198 receptions since the start of 2020 are the most in the NFL, while his 2,433 yards are third-most.
► Despite their problems last week, the Bills have scored points on 45.4% of their offensive drives, the third-highest efficiency in the league.
Sal’s prediction: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34, Buffalo Bills 28
I think the Bills offense can score against Tampa Bay, even though the Bucs defense is loaded with stars. There’s been enough inconsistency from that group to make me think Allen can find completions, move the ball, and get it into the end zone, provided the Bills make better use of their red zone trips.
However, the Bills defense is compromised against Brady and the Bucs passing game without White. That’s a big problem and you know Brady is going to be attacking Jackson whenever he can. And let’s not forget, Levi Wallace has played pretty well, but he’s still a fair nondescript player who can be taken advantage of. And while the defensive numbers and rankings remain great, I can’t get past the fact that the only team with a legitimate offense who the Bills defeated was the Chiefs.
Unless the Bills’ offense has a huge day, or the defense comes up with some timely turnovers that flip the field or even put points on the board, I don’t think the Bills are poised for an upset on the road against the most talented team on their schedule.
How to watch, listen to Buffalo Bills vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers game
When: 4:25 p.m. Sunday
Where: Raymond James Stadium
TV: CBS (Jim Nantz, Tony Romo, Tracy Wolfson)
Satellite radio: Sirius 158, XM 382
Radio: 96.5 FM/950 AM
Series: Buccaneers lead 7-4.
Tipico betting line: Bills +3.5
Talking points
► Bucs QB Tom Brady on his connection with TE Rob Gronkowski: “We've played together (so long), I know basically every situation that's come up. I know how he would deal with it. So much about football is anticipating what the problems will be as opposed to trying to figure out how to solve the problem after the play. Gronk, he knows what I'm thinking, I know what he's thinking. It's a great luxury for two position players like that that have played together for as long as we have.”
► Bucs coach Bruce Arians: "It's a huge game for both teams. Where we're at now, everything is involved with the playoffs and the seeding and everything, plus we don't want to lose at home. They're obviously coming off a really tough loss; they don't want to lose two in a row. It's a big game for both teams.”
► Bucs WR Mike Evans on the Bills: "Buffalo's tough. They're a tough team in the AFC. They were a few plays away from the AFC Championship. We could have played them in the Super Bowl last year. They're a really good team coming off a tough loss in a windy game against New England. We're expecting their best and we're looking forward to putting out our best.”
NFL rankings
Bills Buccaneers
Total offense: 376.0 yards (9th); 403.7 (2nd)
Rush offense: 116.7 yards (13th); 92.6 (25th)
Pass offense: 259.3 (8th); 311.1 (1st)
Points scored: 28.0 (T5th); 31.4 (1st)
Total defense: 272.3 yards (1st); 332.8 (10th)
Rush defense: 107.1 yards (12th); 84.3 (2nd)
Pass defense: 165.3 yards (1st); 248.4 (20th)
Points allowed: 16.3 (2nd); 22.5 (T16th)
Buffalo Bills and Tampa Bay Buccaneers individual leaders
Rushing
Bills: Devin Singletary 108 carries, 495 yards; Josh Allen 75-422; Zack Moss 83-286; Matt Breida 22-112; Emmanuel Sanders 2-31; Mitchell Trubisky 10-27; Isaiah McKenzie 5-27.
Buccaneers: Leonard Fournette 152-665; Ronald Jones 60-266; Gio Bernard 8-58; Tom Brady 19-52.
Passing
Bills: Josh Allen 289 of 440, 3,216 yards, 26 TDs,10 interceptions.
Buccaneers: Tom Brady 347 of 508, 3,771 yards, 34 TDs, 10 interceptions.
Receiving
Bills: Stefon Diggs 71 catches, 898 yards; Cole Beasley 63-541; Emmanuel Sanders 39-581; Dawson Knox 33-429; Devin Singletary 26-118; Gabriel Davis 19-342; Zack Moss 20-178; Tommy Sweeney 9-44; Matt Breida 7-72.
Buccaneers: Chris Godwin 82-949; Leonard Fournette 58-402; Mike Evans 57-794; Rob Gronkowski 33-436; Antonio Brown 29-418; Gio Bernard 23-123; Tyler Johnson 20-230; Cameron Brate 20-184; O.J. Howard 14-135.
2021 Buffalo Bills schedule
9/12 vs. Steelers, L 16-23
9/19 at Dolphins, W 35-0
9/26 vs. Washington, W 43-21
10/3 vs. Texans, W 40-0
10/10 at Chiefs, W 38-20
10/18 at Titans, L 31-34
10/24 Bye week
10/31 vs. Dolphins, W 26-11
11/7 at Jaguars, L 6-9
11/14 at Jets, W 45-17
11/21 vs. Colts, L 15-41
11/25 at Saints, W 31-6
12/6 vs. Patriots, L 14-10
12/12 at Buccaneers, 4:25 p.m.
12/19 vs. Panthers, TBD
12/26 at Patriots, 1 p.m.
1/2 vs. Falcons, 1 p.m.
1/9 vs. Jets, 1 p.m.
Sal Maiorana can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana.
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Buffalo Bills vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Keys to the game and prediction
