Keys to the City: Here’s how Cowboys win in home-away-from-home road game vs Rams
The Dallas Cowboys and the Los Angeles Rams are not meeting expectations early on this season; however, they are doing so in opposite directions. One team is exceeding all the low expectations and the other has been shockingly bad coming off a Super Bowl victory.
The Cowboys have been underdogs in three of their four games so far, nevertheless, they have a 3-1 record even while missing Dak Prescott, Tyron Smith, Conner McGovern, Michael Gallup, Dalton Schultz, and Jayron Kearse. They are currently on a three-game winning streak with unheralded Cooper Rush under center. The defense is a top five unit and leading the team to wins just two years removed from being historically bad. This is a credit to Dan Quinn, but his toughest test thus far will be against the Rams on Sunday.
Los Angeles will have to wake up from their Super Bowl hangover though because they aren’t playing anywhere close to that level from just eight months ago. In four games the Rams have scored over 20 points just once and put up ten points or less twice. Compared that to last season where the Rams scored ten or less once all year and scored more than 30 seven times.
This Sunday, these two teams will be a part of one of the bigger non division matchups of the year. This game is extremely important to both teams and the keys to the game are going to be taken to another level. Here are what the Cowboys and Rams need to do to get a conference victory Sunday.
Who wins on third downs
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When the Cowboys allow Cooper Rush to throw on first down, he is completing 66% of his attempts, throwing over seven yards a reception, with three touchdowns and no interceptions. Those are numbers the team can win with, however, when they get to third down things tend to change for the offense.
Rush is only seven out of 36 on third down throws, under 20%. Last year, after Dak came back from his calf injury, when the offense was in a slump, he still converted on 40% on third downs. The percentage for Rush drops even more when it is 3rd-and-5 or more. He is only 4-for-26, a terrible 15% completion rate and Dallas is facing a solid third-down defense Sunday as well. The Rams allow less than 50% on third down conversions on the season.
As bad as some things are for the Rams offense so far this year, they are a top-10 third-down offense. They have converted on 43% of their attempts, and it increases in home games to over 52%. WR Cooper Kupp is a monster in that area and Rams coach Sean McVay is great at matching up his top receiving weapon on the linebackers of the opposing team. The Cowboys are only allowing a 33.5% conversion rate on third down as a whole, even so, how often Leighton Vander Esch and Anthony Barr end up covering Kupp, and how they perform in that situation could dictate who wins on third down, and that will be a key to who wins the game.
The Rams ability to run the ball
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The Dallas Cowboys have seen enough of Sean McVay and his elite game plan running the ball against them. When they faced off in the 2018 playoffs, the Rams ran for almost 300 yards and had two different backs get over 100 yards on the ground. In 2020, the Rams put up another 150 rush yards on the Cowboys and held the ball for over 35 minutes of time of possession. Their ability to control the contest through the run game has been spectacular.
Quinn didn’t run those defenses though, and they didn’t include a weapon like Micah Parsons, nonetheless, even with them, this defense has been poor against the run through four games this year. Dallas has allowed the most explosive run plays, which are runs of ten yards or more, and they have the worst explosive play percentage in the league as well.
This sets up badly for the Cowboys, but this isn’t the Los Angeles run game from 2018 or 2020 either. This season the Rams are next to last in rush attempts per game. The loss of Andrew Whitworth to retirement, and multiple injuries have left them anemic running the ball. They are only 30th in total rush yards and 29th in yards per carry, so something has got to give between this bad run offense and leaky run defense.
If the Rams can control the Dallas pass rush by making them play the run and wear them down by winning time of possession, their chances of victory increase significantly. The Cowboys need to control the Los Angeles run game so they can get to third and long and tee off on Stafford. The Rams run game, or lack thereof, will be a key to this game.
Aaron Donald
Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
The Cowboys did not do much to bolster confidence in their upcoming trench war with Aaron Donald by how they played against Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne. No matter who Dallas rotated in a left guard, they got beat up by Allen, who put up eight tackles, four for a loss, a sack, a pass deflection, a QB hit, and two additional pressures. Aaron Donald is one of the very few players that can legitimately say he is better than Jonathan Allen. So how can the Cowboys even contain him?
Start by choosing a left guard and sticking with him. No more rotation of a compromised Connor McGovern coming off a high ankle sprain, a very young, not quite ready, Matt Farniok, and a veteran left tackle moved to guard trying to get into game shape in Jason Peters. If Peters is ready, plug him in and let him work with the young center, Tyler Biadasz, and rookie left tackle Tyler Smith. Donald is going to beat anybody you put out their many times, but at least the group can work together and build chemistry while getting to work against the best in the game. For Dallas it isn’t about shutting down Donald, but just not letting him ruin the game.
For Los Angeles, Donald should be who the whole game plan centers around. He is a mismatch inside for Biadasz and whomever the left guard is. The Rams need to use this to find pressures elsewhere, knowing the resources that will be needed to handle the perennial defensive player of the year candid. If Dallas wants to put two guys on Donald, the way the San Francisco 49ers did on Monday night, then Los Angeles will likely bring blitz packages that overload the rest of the Cowboys offensive line. If Dallas leaves Donald one-on-one too often, he will cause problems for the offense all game long, and those problems usually bring about game changing plays like turnovers.
Controlling how much Donald is able to ruin the offensive drives for the Cowboys will be essential to them winning. If Dallas can run and protect Cooper Rush from getting rattled by such an impactful player, they might be able to pull off their fourth straight victory.
You can find Mike Crum on Twitter @cdpiglet or at Youtube on the Across the Cowboys Podcast.
