Kansas City vs Pittsburgh Prediction, AFC Wild Card Preview
Kansas City vs Pittsburgh prediction, game preview, how to watch: AFC Wild Card Preview
Kansas City vs Pittsburgh How To Watch
Date: Sunday, January 16
Game Time: 8:15 ET
Venue: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO
How To Watch: NBC
Record: Pittsburgh (9-7-1), Kansas City (12-5)
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Kansas City vs Pittsburgh Wild Card Game Preview
Why Pittsburgh Will Win the AFC Wild Card
For all of the drama and all of the sweating over how it got into the NFL Playoffs, Pittsburgh is here, and it’s coming in on a bit of a nice run.
Yeah, it got rocked by Kansas City on the day after Christmas, but it pulled off a strong win over No. 1 seed Tennessee and beat Cleveland and Baltimore to set itself up for the opportunity.
The running game has started to work a wee bit better – it was solid in the loss to the Chiefs – and it should go off against a D that gives up close to five yards per pop.
Start early with Najee Harris, hope for an efficient day from Ben Roethlisberger – who’s going to let it fly in his final run – and then get the defense to force mistakes.
Pittsburgh can’t win in a firefight. The D has forced multiple takeaways in four of the last five games, and the one it didn’t – there weren’t any – was in the loss to the Chiefs.
That’s a massive issue because …
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Why Kansas City Will Win the AFC Wild Card
Kansas City isn’t screwing up.
The big turnover problem early in the season was solved with a relatively clean second half. The Chiefs gave it up twice in the Week 15 win over the Chargers, but that’s been if over the last five games.
The team basically chilled out.
Instead of trying to make all the wacky highlight reel throws and plays, Patrick Mahomes is simply moving the offense.
The defense – even with the issues against the run – has been good enough, so all should be fine as long as the offense keeps on being the best in the NFL on third downs and doesn’t give it away.
The offense got up fast with a 23-0 halftime lead on the Steelers and was up 30-0 before gearing down. This won’t be that, but it’s Kansas City. It has that extra gear to put 17 on the board in a hiccup that Pittsburgh doesn’t.
As long as the offensive front can keep TJ Watt and company from jumping on Mahomes, and as long as there isn’t any panic if the Steelers get up early, everything should be fine.
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What’s Going To Happen, Who’s Going To Win the AFC Wild Card
Just how much juice can Ben Roethlisberger bring to this?
The defense will give up a big play or two, but it needs to win third downs – it’s great at that. For all the great things the Chiefs did in the first win, they only converted on 4-of-11 third down chances – Pittsburgh would take that stat in a heartbeat.
The Steelers have to get Najee Harris going early. Time of possession usually doesn’t mean anything to a Kansas City team with is capabilities, but it won’t have Clyde Edwards-Helaire and it’s going against a D with a pass rush that could screw everything up fast.
But it’s not going to happen.
It won’t be a total wipeout like the first meeting, but the Chiefs will score on their opening drive, hold, get a field goal for a 10-0 lead, and they’ll keep a good enough distance the whole way.
Pittsburgh will have its chances to break through, and the Kansas City defense will rise up to keep the drama to a minimum.
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Pittsburgh vs Kansas City Wild Card Prediction, Line
Kansas City 31, Pittsburgh 20
Line: Kansas City -12.5, o/u: 46
ATS Confidence out of 5: 2
Must See Rating: 4
5: Top Gun: Maverick
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