Kansas City Chiefs vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Dave Birkett's scouting report and prediction
Kansas City Chiefs (16-2) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (14-5)
The coaches: Chiefs' Andy Reid (221-130-1 overall, 91-37 with Chiefs); Buccaneers' Bruce Arians (67-44-1 overall, 18-14 with Buccaneers).
Last game: AFC championship game: Chiefs beat the Buffalo Bills, 38-24; NFC championship game: Buccaneers beat the Green Bay Packers, 31-26.
Last meeting: Nov. 29, 2020: Chiefs won, 27-24.
Key matchups
Bucs DE Jason Pierre-Paul vs. Chiefs OT Mike Remmers: One area the Bucs have a clear advantage is their edge rushers, Pierre-Paul and Shaq Barrett, against Kansas City’s offensive tackles, Remmers and Andrew Wylie. Pierre-Paul and Barrett combined for five sacks in the NFC championship game and have the benefit of playing against a pair of backups Sunday. The Chiefs lost starting linemen Eric Fisher and Mitchell Schwartz to injury, and have shuffled their offensive line as a result. If that wasn’t enough, Pierre-Paul took a shot at the Remmers this week, saying, “I didn’t even know who that was.” For Tampa to win, Pierre-Paul and Barrett must make life tough on Patrick Mahomes.
Bucs WR Mike Evans vs. Chiefs CB Charvarius Ward: The Bucs have an embarrassment of riches in the passing, with Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown and Scotty Miller at receiver and Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate at tight end. Evans, though, was Brady’s favorite target during this season and his 13 receiving touchdowns were fourth most in the NFL. Evans beat Ward for one of those scores in their regular season matchup, and Tom Brady had his most success in that game throwing to Ward’s side of the field. Both these teams are capable of putting up big passing number, and the Chiefs may need Ward to come up with a big play to keep Evans out of the end zone.
Scouting report
Bucs run offense vs. Chiefs run defense
With Brady and all of those weapons on the perimeter, the Bucs are clearly a passing team. They tied for 28th in the NFL in rushing in the regular season (94.9 ypg) and had fewer rushing attempts than all but three teams.
Brady, of course, is no threat to run, but Tampa does have some talent in the backfield. Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette were both high draft picks, and they’ve essentially split the workload in the playoffs. Fournette did have 93 yards in a wild card win over Washington, and Tampa is capable of closing out the game on the ground if necessary.
The Chiefs held five of their final seven opponents in the regular season under 100 yards rushing, though their style of play — and their opponents’ need to keep pace scoring — was a big part of that defensive success. In the postseason, opponents are averaging 6 yards per carry against Kansas City, though that number is skewed by Josh Allen’s big rushing day (seven carries, 88 yards). Chris Jones is a difference maker for the Chiefs up front. Edge: Chiefs
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Bucs pass offense vs. Chiefs pass defense
What Brady is doing at 43 years old is nothing short of phenomenal. He does not have near the arm he used to, and he’s struggled with interceptions at times this postseason. But his brain is a computer when it comes to figuring out defenses and he might have the deepest group of skill position players in the league.
Evans and Godwin are the headliners, but six different Bucs have receiving touchdowns this postseason. Miller is a speed demon on the outside, and Gronkowski has years of institutional knowledge of Brady for their playing days in New England. Offensively, the Bucs appear to be clicking after a slow start, and Arians is as aggressive a play caller as there is in the league.
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Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has done something few others have over the years — beat Brady in a Super Bowl. This Chiefs defense is not nearly in the same class as the Giants one Spagnuolo oversaw in 2007, but they do have two good pass rushers up front in Jones and Frank Clark and one of the best safeties around in Tyrann Mathieu. Edge: Bucs
Chiefs run offense vs. Bucs run defense
Darrel Williams has played the role of feature back for the Chiefs this postseason, carrying 26 times for 130 yards to nearly match his rushing total from the regular season (39-169). Rookie Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been limited since suffering hip and ankle injuries in a December win over the New Orleans Saints. He’s a go for Sunday, though, and a dangerous weapon in the passing game.
The Chiefs, like the Bucs, are a pass-first offense, but Mahomes is good for a winning play or two every game with his feet. Beyond that, Kansas City mixes in an array of jet sweeps and pitch passes to speed demons Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman that help simulate the run.
The Bucs led the NFL in rush defense in the regular season (80.6 ypg) and have been just as good in the playoffs. Vita Vea and Ndamukong Suh anchor the middle of the defensive line, and Devin White, who has quickly emerged as one of the NFL’s best linebackers, has four straight games with double-digit tackles. Edge: Bucs
Chiefs pass offense vs. Bucs pass defense
As amazing a story as Brady is playing in his 10th Super Bowl, Mahomes is far and away the best quarterback in the NFL. He has special arm talent, dazzles with off-platform throws, and like Brady, is surrounded by a deep and diverse cast of skill players.
Hill had a monster 13-catch, 269-yard, three-touchdown day against the Bucs in November, when Tampa struggled with his speed in man coverage. The Bucs settled down defensively in that game by playing more zone and match coverage, and likely use those concepts again Sunday. Beyond Hill, Travis Kelce is the best receiving tight end in the NFL, while Sammy Watkins is questionable with a calf injury.
To slow Kansas City’s league-best passing attack, the Bucs must dominate up front against a beat-up Chiefs offensive line that is without both starting tackles. Mahomes does not make many mistakes — he threw six interceptions in nearly 600 pass attempts this season — and seems almost able to throttle up and erase any deficit at will. Edge: Chiefs
Special teams
As good as both these teams are, neither is outstanding in the kicking game. The Chiefs ranked slightly higher in Rick Gosselin’s respected special teams rankings (tied for 19th vs. tied for 22 for Tampa), and they do have two dangerous punt returners in Hardman and Hill. Hardman muffed a punt in the AFC title game, but he returned a punt 67 yards for a touchdown in the regular season and Byron Pringle had a kick return touchdown. Harrison Butker is a perfect 5-for-5 on 50-plus-yard field goal attempts this season, including the playoffs, but he has missed seven extra points. The Chiefs have punted just once this postseason.
Tampa kicker Ryan Succop missed a field goal and two extra points against the Detroit Lions in December, when he said he hated the Ford Field turf. He’s been mostly reliable otherwise, going 8-for-8 on field goals this postseason with one missed PAT. Jaydon Mickens handles return duties for the Bucs. He is fearless, but not quite as explosive as Kansas City’s return men. Bradley Pinion had two touchbacks in 59 punts this season, and the Bucs did block one punt this season. Edge: Chiefs
Prediction
Fifteen years from now, we will look back on this Super Bowl as one the best matchups ever. Brady is the G.O.A.T. of NFL quarterbacks, an undeniable winner who has a chance for a seventh ring Sunday. Mahomes is his heir apparent, a 25-year-old with one MVP already on his resume and the chance to get his second Super Bowl. Both are flanked by special weapons on offense, and both have aggressively brilliant head coaches calling plays.
For Tampa to win, Brady must avoid the turnover issues he’s had at times this postseason, and the Bucs must dominate up front defensively. Injuries have made Kansas City’s offensive line its kryptonite, and if Pierre-Paul, Suh and Co. don’t make life tough on Mahomes, they will not have a chance. The Chiefs have a penchant for starting slow, which is rarely an issue because their offense is so explosive but ill-advised Sunday against Brady and an offense that features three No. 1 receivers. It’s hard to pick against Brady on this stage, but Mahomes and the Chiefs seem to be able to flip a switch whenever they need points and I expect that switch to be on from kickoff in their second straight Super Bowl. Pick: Chiefs 34, Bucs 28
Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Super Bowl 55: Chiefs. vs. Buccaneers scouting report and prediction
