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Jim Sankey: Extra Innings: Changes shouldn't wait until offseason

Jim Sankey, Allied News, Grove City, Pa.
·4 min read

Aug. 8—Remember those glorious days of April when the first-place Pirates rode a 20-8 mark and giddiness was the norm for long-suffering Pirates fans?

If pitching is the most important of baseball, then the Pirates pitchers were the most important factor in the team's success.

Pirates pitchers had posted a staff 3.55 ERA with a 22.6 percent strikeout rate and an 8.8 percent walk rate, with a 0.80 home run rate per nine innings.

Just a .500 record after their 20-8 start through the rest of the season would have given the Bucs an 87-75 record and a pretty good shot at making the postseason.

Before last night's scheduled game, the Pirates are 31-53 since the end of April. During that time, the team ERA has exploded to 4.9 with a 1.44 home run rate per nine innings, with the starting staff's ERA at 5.23.

Just as the pitchers were the most important factor in the team's early triumphs, they are also most culpable for the team's collapse.

Some of that breakdown has been due to injuries.

At the start of spring training, several publications had projected a starting rotation of Mitch Keller, Rich Hill, JT Brubaker, Roansy Contreras and Vince Velasquez.

Only Keller remains from that group.

Early into the season, Velasquez suffered right elbow discomfort and required season-ending surgery to address damage to the UCL in June.

Brubaker was placed on the 15-day injured list on Opening Day, before undergoing Tommy John surgery on April 12, another season casualty.

Top minor league option Mike Burrows also had season-ending UCL surgery in April.

Finally, free agent left-handed reliever Jarlin Garcia hasn't pitched yet after injuring nerves in upper left arm.

But other problems befell the pitching staff. Contreras' April provided a 3.58 ERA and had not allowed a home run in 27 2/3 innings pitched in five starts. However, starting in May until he was optioned to the minors in early July, the righthander pitched in 14 games, starting six. He posted horrible stats: an 8.63 ERA, 10.8 percent walk rate and 16.7 percent strikeout rate, giving up 2.43 home runs in nine innings. During his demotion to the Florida Complex League, he has yet to appear in a game.

I saw fire-balling Luis Ortiz's first major-league game in Cincinnati last fall, a 1-0 win during which he burned multiple 100-plus mph strikes past the Reds. I could hardly wait to see what he might accomplish in a full 2023 season. But Ortiz floundered this year, with his velocity way down, winding up in AAA to work on his secondary pitches (a sinker and a change-up.)

Three current starters are shaky at best: prospect Quinn Priester (who starts tonight) has been overmatched during most of his several starts; looking to replace the traded Rich Hill, newly-acquired Bailey Falter (Thursday's starter) is 0-7 in 2023; and career minor league starter Osvaldo Bido has carried an ERA around five. Unable to carry a six-run lead over Atlanta on Monday, Bido didn't last four innings.

Thank goodness for righty John Oveido: his 3-11 record on July 20 belied his work, and his 3-0 record since then shows promise for the rest of the season and beyond.

But by the widest of margins, the biggest culprit has been the team's would-be ace, Keller.

Through his first 12 starts of the season, Keller was 7-1 with a 3.25 ERA and among the league leaders in strikeouts. He was striking out 11 batters and walking only two per nine innings, while giving up 0.72 home runs. In mid-May, he was named National League Player of the Week, struck out a career high 13 batters in seven innings and was bandied about as a league Cy Young award candidate. On June 28, he won his ninth game and pitched in his first All-Star Game in mid-July.

Since June 28, he is 1-6 before last night's scheduled start (9-8 season record), and since May 26, he carries a 5.92 ERA, allowing 50 earned runs in 76 innings. In four starts since the All-Star break, Keller's ERA in those starts is 9.97, including two outings yielding a career-high-tying eight runs.

To avoid another completely devastating season finish, the Bucs must make three changes now, not in the off-season. And addressing pitching is just one of them.

This week's Extra Innings is a part of a two-part piece. NEXT WEEK: The three changes that needed to happen long ago.

JIM SANKEY is the Pittsburgh Pirates columnist for Allied News. His work appears in the form of the Extra Innings column that runs weekly during the Major League Baseball season.

This week's Extra Innings is a part of a two-part piece. NEXT WEEK: The three changes that needed to happen long ago.

JIM SANKEY is the Pittsburgh Pirates columnist for Allied News. His work appears in the form of the Extra Innings column that runs weekly during the Major League Baseball season.