Jaguars Final Report Card: Nobody earned honor roll distinction after season's epic collapse
If there’s one overriding theme about the 2023 Jacksonville Jaguars season, it would be a failure to establish any kind of identity about who they were or even wanted to be.
By the end, this Jekyll-and-Hyde team had morphed from contender to pretender.
It was unable to handle the hype of being a division favorite. There was no more glaring evidence than players and coaches being lost for answers as to how they went from 8-3 to a 1-5 finish, sabotaging their chances of winning back-to-back AFC South titles for the first time.
With so much at stake in Week 18 against the Tennessee Titans, a shocking 28-20 loss to their biggest rival will persistently hang over the offseason and leave a stench that won’t easily go away.
“It wasn’t going to be handed to us,” said tight end Evan Engram after the Titans’ loss. “We could sit here all day and go back and forth about negative plays, this and that.
“At the end of the day, you can go back and find things that could have kept us out of this situation in the first place.”
'Can't let things slip': What we learned from Jaguars HC Doug Pederson's end-of-season presser
For myriad reasons, the Jaguars couldn’t duplicate last year when essentially the same team under Pederson learned just in time how to finish games and make clutch plays in big moments.
The Jaguars’ 9-8 record this year had the opposite feel of the same mark in 2022 when Jacksonville won the last five regular-season games, followed by erasing a 27-0 deficit to the Los Angeles Chargers in an AFC wild-card game.
Except for an overachieving defense in the first eight games, the 2023 Jaguars fizzled in too many areas over the second half of the season to remain any kind of a Super Bowl threat.
Quarterback Trevor Lawrence couldn’t ignite a tepid offense that took a step back. The defense got off to a fast start and was a takeaway machine for two months, then regressed so badly that it compelled Pederson to fire coordinator Mike Caldwell and nearly the entire defensive staff.
GM Trent Baalke now heads into what could be a crossroad season, depending on how normally patient owner Shad Khan views the response from what was unmistakably the biggest collapse in team history.
The Jaguars must acquire better personnel to achieve the consistency needed in the future to take advantage of what remains of their Super Bowl window.
As for the 2023 season, this final report card reflects how the up-and-down Jaguars ultimately fell short in every facet:
Offense: C-minus
From an expectation standpoint, nothing was a greater disappointment than watching the offense show glimpses of firepower with Lawrence’s arsenal of weapons, only to throw points away by the quarterback not protecting the ball or having penalties at the worst time.
With the Jaguars adding a top receiving threat in Calvin Ridley, and first-round draft pick Anton Harrison filling in nicely at right tackle for departed free agent Jawaan Taylor, this should have been a potent offense.
Pederson had every reason to believe the Jaguars, who averaged 23.9 points per game in 2022, could easily be among the top-10 scoring teams again in the NFL. It had the personnel to eclipse a franchise-record 417 points set in 2017, albeit that number was aided by a whopping seven defensive touchdowns.
But without a credible running game — impeded by an offensive line that had a weak interior and missed left tackle Cam Robinson for half the season due to suspension or knee injury — the offense dropped to 22.2 points and was no better than average or below average.
A major reason why the offense seemed stuck in neutral most of the season is Lawrence, who dealt with four different injury circumstances (knee, ankle, concussion, shoulder) and missed his first NFL start in Week 17 against the Carolina Panthers, couldn’t get off the turnover train.
He gave the ball away 21 times (14 interceptions, seven fumbles), the third-most by an NFL quarterback behind Sam Howell (Washington Commanders, 23) and Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills, 22).
Two of those turnovers came in the red zone, along with four instances where Lawrence failed to convert on fourth down inside the opponents’ 20. No giveaway was more galling than dropping the ball on a scramble with nobody around him against the Baltimore Ravens, which led to a 21-yard return and ensuing TD to extend the deficit to 10-0.
Now if Lawrence was getting the ball in the end zone with near the same proficiency as Allen (44 combined TDs), the Jaguars would gladly accept that tradeoff and be celebrating another AFC South championship. But Lawrence accounted for just 25 touchdowns (21 passing, 4 running), five less than last year, and his 88.5 QB rating is a pedestrian 25th.
His propensity for turnovers has exasperated Pederson, to the point where he believes it’s the top thing the offense must fix to reach its potential.
Injuries undoubtedly hampered Lawrence, but giving the ball to opponents is nothing new. He has the most turnovers (60) of any quarterback the past three years, one more than Allen, who has accounted for 128 TDs over that span, compared to 69 for Lawrence.
Lawrence makes no attempt to sidestep the issue, saying: “I got to own my part and I’ve got to take better care of the ball. That’s going to give us a better chance to win a lot of these game. There’s other things that I need to do better, too, it’s not just turnovers.
“But just in general, I need to be more consistent. I think as a team and as an offense, we need to be more consistent in every aspect.”
That’s a spot-on assessment of his unit. Everything about the offense screams out underachieving.
The Jaguars were 13th in points per game (22.2) and total offense (339.5 yards), 17th in third-down efficiency (38.2 percent) and pass completions (51) of 20-plus yards, and a disappointing 25th in rushing yards per game (97.2 yards).
Nowhere has the offense been more suspect than trying to establish a ground game. Travis Etienne barely squeezed out another 1,000-yard season with 1,008 and had 11 TDs, but it was tough sledding to get there. He averaged just 3.8 yards per carry, cracking the 100-yard mark only against Buffalo and the Carolina Panthers.
Jacksonville’s strongest position at receiver was affected by losing Kirk (57 catches, 787 yards) for the last five games with a groin injury. Kirk easily has the team’s top yards per target average (9.26 yards), which ranks in the NFL top-25 for receivers with a minimum 50 targets.
Ridley provided an ample deep threat with 70 catches for 1,016 yards and eight TDs. He also drew a team-high eight pass interference penalties for 136 yards. The Jaguars led the NFL by drawing 19 P.I. calls for 304 yards.
Overall, the Jaguars could never find a groove and sustain it. The best the offense looked all year was a 474-yard output against Buffalo in London, which featured a 10-play, 93-yard TD drive in the fourth quarter that delighted Pederson and play-caller Press Taylor.
The drive was the perfect run-pass balance they wanted, a rare occurrence where Etienne was the main attraction. He caught one pass for 10 yards, then finished the TD march with runs of 10, 11 and 6 yards, wearing out a tiring Bills’ defense. Ridley had a 20-yard reception and Kirk also drew a 26-yard pass interference penalty.
All facets of the Jaguars’ offense clicked that day, though Lawrence still had two fumbles. Etienne ran for 136 yards and two TDs. Ridley had seven catches on eight targets for 122 yards. The 25-20 victory was Jacksonville’s best win over a quality opponent.
Unfortunately, that kind of performance didn’t happen often enough. The offense got bogged down with 30 turnovers, the fifth-most giveaways in the NFL.
Converting short-yardage situations, including not getting into the end zone twice from one yard out in last week’s loss at Tennessee, was another issue. The Jaguars were a combined 31 of 57 (54.4 percent) on third-and-1 or third-and-2. Not good enough.
If Lawrence is going to become the generational quarterback many hyped him to be as a No. 1 draft pick, which is now in question after this pedestrian season, then improving his ball security is imperative.
The Jaguars’ front office must do its part by providing a more reliable cast of bodyguards to reduce those 41 allowed sacks. Lawrence needs a better running attack to make his play-action passing more effective.
Whether the Jaguars bring back impending free agent Ridley or keep Robinson due to a $21 million salary cap hit is debatable, but the highest priority in personnel must be upgrading a ho-hum offensive line.
Defense: D-plus
This might be the toughest grade ever assigned to a Jaguars unit because Caldwell had them playing at such a high level before the Week 9 bye.
It’s somewhat baffling how the defense went from being in sync with communication, discipline and tackling in the first half of the season, then turned into a dumpster fire the last nine games.
Now, the Jaguars gave up a ton of passing yards all year, but that blemish was covered up early on by the defense getting 18 takeaways (11 interceptions, 7 fumbles) in the first eight games as the team got off to a 6-2 start.
When those takeaways began drying up with just nine in the last nine games, that contributed mightily to the Jaguars losing six times and squandering away a division title.
The defense was especially lights-out in carrying the offense for most of the first two months. Following 10 Jaguars offensive turnovers, the defense never allowed a touchdown on the ensuing series, giving up just four field goals.
But over the last nine games, the Jaguars allowed 10 touchdowns following turnovers, including six in successive losses to the Cleveland Browns, Baltimore Ravens and Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Nowhere was the defense’s stark contrast between the first half of the season and second half more evident than in the running game. Opponents rushed for only 79.3 yards per game for eight weeks, then shot up to 124.9 yards in the final nine games.
The Jaguars held ball-carriers to 3.6 yards per rush in September and October, then allowed 4.6 yards per carry the rest of the season. Tennessee’s Derrick Henry, limited to 38 yards on 10 attempts in the Jaguars’ 34-14 win on Nov. 19, rambled for a season-high 153 yards on 19 carries in Week 18.
What happened to Caldwell’s defense over the second half of the season was one of the most astounding performance flips in franchise history. Beyond missed tackles and fewer takeaways, there was a connectivity element that went missing, too.
“I’ve been thinking about it since it started,” safety Andre Cisco said of the Jaguars’ 1-5 finish. “I can’t say I know why. But I would say it’s a mindset thing, it’s an approach.
“I think practice was good, times where we approached the game the right way, but not enough collectively. It kind of showed every time on game day.”
The defense collapsed despite staying relatively healthy. It didn’t have cornerback Tyson Campbell available for six games due to hamstring and quad injuries (Jaguars went 4-2), while defensive lineman DaVon Hamilton only started two games. He struggled to get into any kind of flow after a serious preseason back infection nearly cost him his career.
Outside of Josh Allen and Travon Walker, the NFL’s top pass-rushing combo with 27.5 sacks, linebacker Foye Oluokun and cornerback Darious Williams, the defense lacked consistent impact players.
It’s no coincidence that the Jaguars did better when Allen, who set the team single-sack record with 17.5, and Walker were terrorizing quarterbacks. They combined for 21.5 sacks in the Jaguars’ nine wins and only 6.0 in eight defeats.
Williams had 19 pass breakups, second in the NFL behind only San Francisco 49ers cornerback Charvarius Ward (24). But like the rest of the defense, the Creekside High product was far more productive in the first half of the season, collecting 14 passes defensed and three of his team-high four interceptions through eight games.
One area where the defense made significant improvement from last season was on third down. Opponents only converted 36.5 percent, eighth-best in the league, compared to 43.8 percent in 2022 when the Jaguars were 29th.
But again, down the stretch when the stakes were highest, the defense faltered as opponents converted 44.6 percent (33 of 74) on third down in the Jaguars’ last five losses.
Across the board, the disparity between what the defense was before the December backslide and after resulted in a lot of coaches being sent to the unemployment line.
Since Pederson got rid of nearly the entire defensive staff, it’s likely significant turnover will be coming with the players. Two with big cap numbers who are expendable are lineman Foley Fatukasi ($12.8 million) and Jenkins ($12.3 million), but it’d be tougher to part with Oluokun ($21.75 million) or Williams ($10.5 million).
A D+ is a harsh grade considering how well the defense performed for half the season, but as the pressure to close out another AFC South title amped up, Caldwell’s defense went south in a hurry.
Special Teams: B
Among the recent Jaguars traditions that doesn’t seem to change is the most dependable unit remains special teams.
It probably doesn’t hurt that coordinator Heath Farwell, who played 10 seasons in the NFL and served as a special teams captain for the Super Bowl-winning Seattle Seahawks, is the only Jaguars coordinator who had previous experience in the same job (Buffalo 2019-21) before coming to Jacksonville.
Overall, the special teams performance was solid most of the season, albeit the Week 3 loss to the Houston Texans was a major hiccup. That’s when a Brandon McManus 48-yard missed field goal, a blocked 51-yard field goal and stunning 85-yard kickoff return by fullback Andrew Beck led to 21 Texans points.
Beyond that nightmarish game, there was nothing extraordinary about Farwell’s unit, though some elements of it performed at a high level.
Ross Matiscik, who led all NFL long snappers with eight solo tackles and had the unusual feat of recovering his own forced fumble, was the only Jaguar besides Allen to earn a starting Pro Bowl honor. He also earned a first-team, All-Pro designation from AP.
Despite getting hurt and missing six games, Jamal Agnew finished tied for fifth among kick returners with a 26.1-yard average (minimum 10 returns) and 12th in punt returns at 10.3 yards. Rookie Parker Washington did an admirable job stepping in for Agnew on punt returns with a 10.5-yard average to finish 11th.
The Jaguars were ninth overall in punt return average at 10.2 yards and tied for 12th in kickoff returns with a 23.7-yard average.
If the Jaguars decide to move on from free agent Agnew, who turns 29 in April, there’ll be a wide open competition for kick return duties next season. Running back Tank Bigsby got the assignment last week for the first time against the Titans, returning four kicks for a 24.75-yard averaage.
When the Jaguars signed kicker Brandon McManus in the offseason and released predecessor Riley Patterson, the thinking was it’d be an upgrade with his bigger leg. That proved to be partially true.
McManus got off to a great start, making 23 of his first 25 attempts and earned AFC Special Teams Player of the Month in October. But the Jaguars’ second-oldest player at 32 missed five of his next six attempts before closing out the season with six straight made FGs.
He finished 30 of 37, missing 5 of 10 field goals from beyond 50 yards. That was slightly less from an accuracy standpoint than Patterson, who made 30 of 35 in 2022. McManus was much stronger than Patterson on kickoffs with 65 touchbacks in 86 attempts (75.6 percent), ranking 18th in the NFL.
Coverage teams were a mixed bag. The punt coverage team finished third, allowing just 6.5 yards per return. Logan Cooke finished 10th with a net punting average of 43.8 yards and had 29 punts downed inside the 20, which tied for 12th.
Among punters with a minimum 300 punts in their career, Cooke’s 43.3-yard net average is first in NFL history.
The kick coverage team, its numbers skewed by allowing that stunning touchdown to Beck, finished at 25.4 yards per return and a league ranking of 25th.
In his annual special team rankings that documents 22 different categories, Dallas-based NFL writer Rick Gosselin ranked the Jaguars 9th. The Houston Texans finished first for the second straight year.
Coaching: D-plus
Despite the team’s winning record, this will not go down as one of Pederson’s better performances in his seven seasons as an NFL head coach.
When you feel compelled to fire most of the defensive coaches and Lawrence takes a step back from last season — which diminishes Pederson’s reputation as an offensive guru – that's not a good combination.
You can bet the Jaguars’ second-year head coach is still fuming over how this season got away from him. Everything seemed on point when the Jaguars were 6-2 heading into the bye week.
Clearly, the Jaguars didn’t handle prosperity well. Injuries played a small part in the 1-5 slump that cost them the AFC South title, but not enough that the Jaguars should have cratered in such shocking fashion.
All that went wrong down the stretch is a direct reflection on Pederson, who looked bewildered after Sunday’s season-ending loss to Tennessee, as if he had just awakened from a bad dream.
He strongly hinted Monday that his message about always playing with a sense of urgency didn’t get through properly to the players.
“Everything is connected,” said Pederson. “We played the [Kansas City] Chiefs in Week 2 and I mentioned to the team how this could have playoff implications. Then week 3 you play the [Houston] Texans. This could have playoff implications for the AFC South. You show up here today and it’s like, ‘Oh, that’s what he’s talking about.’ We can’t get to that point. It’s got to be that sense of urgency where everything matters.
“This is all part of teaching the team to win and preparing to win; focusing in on preparation and doing all those little things that as coaches, we talk a lot to our players about. And we can’t push it aside and say, ‘Hey, we got 12 more games or 15 more games. We still got a three-game lead in the division, it’s okay.’
“It’s really not. You can’t let things slide. You can’t let things slip and that sense of urgency is important to the success we have. Especially down the stretch here, when everything began to matter.”
All of that disconnect — if that was the culprit in losing crucial winnable games to Cincinnati, Cleveland, Baltimore and Tennessee (never mind the debacle at Tampa Bay) — falls on Pederson.
No excuses. It’s his responsibility to make sure the players remain detail-oriented and focused when adversity hits. The Jaguars responded with a five-game winning streak after back-to-back losses to the Chiefs and Texans, but things went sideways after Bengals’ backup QB Browing outdueled Lawrence on Monday Night Football.
On a positive note, the Jaguars were the fourth-least penalized team with 83 for 644 yards. Amazingly, it had only one defensive pass interference (Oluokun against Pittsburgh) all season, but did have the fourth-most false starts with 26.
Three of Pederson’s five teams in Philadelphia (2016-20) finished the season strong, just as his Jaguars did last year, but the right buttons weren’t pushed this time.
Except for that 26-0 win over the NFL’s worst team, the Carolina Panthers, both the offense and defense kept putting up stink-bomb showings once December rolled around.
There’s going to be a lot more roster turnover in 2024, with likely four or more regular starters employed elsewhere.
Big decisions are coming on the future of Ridley, Robinson and Oluokun, with the timing for a Lawrence long-term extension also on Baalke’s plate.
The Jaguars thought they could bring back essentially the same cast as last year and it’d lead to greater success. That didn’t happen.
Pederson has already seen to it that 10 coaches answered for that by issuing them pink slips. But the collapse that ruined a promising season falls mostly on him.
Gfrenette@jacksonville.com: (904) 359-4540; Follow him on X, formerly Twitter, at @genefrenette
This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Nobody on Jaguars deserves to make good grades after 2023 season's collapse
