Insider: As Mike Woodson, IU basketball search for answers, here's one they should try.
BLOOMINGTON – Of all the criticism leveled at Louisville coach Kenny Payne this season, his least deserved might have come after the Cardinals’ Nov. 20 loss to Indiana in New York.
A back-and-forth game turned for good when Mike Woodson — Payne’s longtime friend and contemporary — did something unexpected. Woodson, a strict man-to-man disciple, threw a zone defense at Payne’s Cardinals, who couldn’t adjust accordingly. IU pulled ahead and away.
After the game, Payne admitted he never expected Woodson to deploy a 2-3, deadpanning, “He tricked me.” The line played up on social media, especially among Louisville fans frustrated by Payne’s job performance, which felt harsh.
Insider: Saving season will require Woodson’s best coaching job since IU return
In-depth basketball analysis software logged Woodson’s Indiana teams with just 15 total zone possessions across his first two seasons. He doesn’t play it. Never has.
Maybe this year he should.
Woodson entered this season open-minded about playing more zone, something he brought up during a sitdown interview with IndyStar in September.
“We can run some zones,” he said then. “I can’t believe I’m even saying zones, because I’ve always been a man-to-man guy. But I just think there’s some things we can do to junk it up a little bit from a defensive standpoint.”
To this point, he’s done it sparingly. Synergy has charted 19 Indiana possessions in zone defense this season, five more than the 14 the Hoosiers played last winter. They played just one (probably a system error) in Woodson’s first year.
To the naked eye, IU has employed its zone for an extended stretch just a handful of times this season, most notably wins over Louisville and Kennesaw State. In both games, it made a difference.
The pivot to 2-3, as previously discussed knocked the Cardinals out of their rhythm and ultimately the game in that Empire Classic matchup. It also stemmed a rising tide against the Owls in Indiana’s nonconference finale, slowing Kennesaw State’s frantic pace long enough for the Hoosiers to take back control of the tempo and therefore the result.
Statistically, the zone has been effective, albeit in a glaringly small sample size. Across those 19 possessions, opponents are scoring a tick under 0.74 unadjusted points per. In 1,110 man possessions, that number rises to 0.92.
Those comparisons obviously need to be taken with a grain of salt, even if that zone possession number feels a bit low. Still, in low usage, IU’s 2-3 zone has shown some effectiveness.
It’s a long step from 19 intriguing possessions to making that 2-3 part of Indiana’s defensive identity. But Woodson should consider blending it in more.
What are the general downsides to a zone? It can be more difficult to rebound out of. If it’s broken down it can lead to open 3s. Less man-specific ball pressure tends to lead to fewer turnovers.
All of which are already problems for Indiana — the Hoosiers are a pedestrian defensive rebounding group at present, they are statistically poor defending the 3 and Woodson’s teams have never forced high turnover numbers consistently.
On the other hand, when run effectively, a good 2-3 zone slows down transition offense. It chokes off the kind of penetration Indiana has struggled against. It puts guards in the positions where the long rebounds currently hurting this team tend to land.
Indiana’s reliance on bigger lineups would, at least in theory, be more of an advantage in a zone, while mitigating individual players’ shortcomings defending the ball and ball screens in man possessions. A team with wingspan on the front line and quickness at the back fits a zone well, in theory.
And while it’s admittedly unscientific, because teams don’t see high-level athletes running it very often, they tend to struggle against it. When you don’t prepare for a ton of zone, it tends to disrupt your rhythm unless you have extended time to scout and install against it. And even time, as IU fans well know, is not always a cure-all against the 2-3.
Yes, Indiana would probably struggle a handful of times defending the 3-point line. But even good shooting teams can struggle against a zone, and teams don’t need to be statistically consistent to hurt IU from behind the arc as things currently stand. In college, where zone offenses are often less refined and seldom practiced, a good zone can also make an opponent fall in love with the 3-pointer, which makes that opponent one-dimensional.
There would undoubtedly be growing pains. Woodson has never coached a zone as his primary defense, so he’d need to feel his way through it, and players unfamiliar with it would make some mistakes along the way. But learning by doing could still make it a sharp object within a few weeks, in enough time for it to affect the outcome of this season.
Maybe a change wouldn’t outweigh the strengths of the existing system, but it’s hardly doing wonders. The Hoosiers are 105th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom, barely inside the top 100 in 2-point defense and 261st in opponent 3-point percentage. There’s little harm in a change of pace, just to see if a shakeup settles things in better shape than before. Especially when in, again, an admittedly small sample, the zone has shown some promise.
Woodson doesn’t have to scrap his man-to-man principles entirely. He certainly doesn’t have to throw them out long term. But for this team, one Woodson himself admits isn’t as good as his previous two defensively — an assessment any statistical analysis supports — a longer look at the zone might be warranted. Let the Hoosiers play through it more often, learn by doing, and see if the wrinkle doesn’t spark something at that end of the floor.
TRIVIA
What All-American future Super Bowl winner anchored Baylor’s defense in the 1991 Copper Bowl, IU’s last bowl win?
Hint: If you read our Copper Bowl retrospective over the holiday, you’ll know the answer.
NEWS & NOTES
∎ All signs point toward five-star Montverde (Fla.) Academy big man Derik Queen committing during his team’s turn at the Spalding Hoophall Classic next week in Massachusetts. Queen, a long-term target for Woodson and his staff, will choose from five finalists, including Houston, LSU and Kansas, though Indiana and Maryland are widely believed to be the two most serious suitors here.
Were he to sign with IU, Queen would join Montverde teammate Liam McNeeley and hand Woodson a double boost in a 2024 class that will be crucial to next season’s roster makeup and projection.
∎ Payton Sparks became the latest Hoosier ostensibly ruled out through an injury concern Wednesday, when he played zero minutes after being listed as questionable on Indiana’s pregame availability report. But Woodson will have been happier to see Xavier Johnson (lower leg) and Kel’el Ware (COVID) back on the floor. Ware excelled, finishing with 20 points and 10 rebounds in his first game since the holiday break. Johnson went scoreless across 15 minutes, Woodson managing Johnson’s time on the floor as he eases the sixth-year point guard back in.
∎ James Madison WR transfer Elijah Sarratt committed to the Hoosiers on Thursday night. Sarratt, an all-conference selection in 2023, posted 124 catches for 1,891 yards and 21 touchdowns across two seasons in Harrisonburg. He elected to open his portal recruitment, rather than following Curt Cignetti directly to Bloomington.
∎ In that vein: Expect football recruiting to gear up again now, as both players and programs sprint for the February finish line in the current cycle. Any further incoming transfers will need to be bound for Bloomington soon, with the spring semester starting next week. Freshmen will have the traditional February window during which to sign with their schools.
∎ A reminder Indiana has two men’s games (at Rutgers, Jan. 9, and Purdue, Jan. 16) and three women’s games (Minnesota, Jan. 17, at Purdue, Jan. 21, and at Maryland, Jan. 31) on Peacock this month, for those wishing to but not already having subscribed.
ANSWER
Santana Dotson, a Houston native, headlined the Bears’ vaunted defense, which was expected to be part of a punishing Baylor win in that Copper Bowl. Instead, Indiana flipped the script, dominating in all phases in a 24-0 win.
Dotson went on to play a decade in the NFL, where he was named to an all-rookie team and won a Super Bowl with Green Bay.
Follow IndyStar reporter Zach Osterman on Twitter: @ZachOsterman.
This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Indiana basketball: Mike Woodson should try switch to zone defense
