Insider: 23 things to watch as Colts take Patriots rivalry to Germany
FRANKFURT, Germany — One of the best rivalries in the NFL is taking place in front of an international audience this weekend.
For fans back home in Indianapolis, the timing is perfect for a little breakfast or brunch with the game.
The Colts take on the Patriots at 9:30 a.m. Sunday at Deutsche Bank Park in a game televised by the NFL Network nationally and locally WXIN-59, and even though both teams are currently on the outside of the playoff picture, games between Indianapolis and New England have a way of being memorable.
Two seasons ago, Jonathan Taylor turned in a signature performance with 170 yards and an unforgettable 67-yard touchdown, and last year, the Patriots brought the Colts offense to such a halt that former head coach Frank Reich was fired the next day.
New England (2-7) is off to such a bad start that Patriots head coach Bill Belichick was asked this week about his job security, and Indianapolis (4-5) remains on the fringes of the AFC playoff picture, trying to stay in the mix with a win.
Can the Colts out-scheme Bill Belichick?
1. NFL defenses have been successful against the Indianapolis offense by stacking the line, devoting all of their energy to stopping the run and daring the Colts to pass. New England head coach Bill Belichick is famous for all-or-nothing strategies to take away a team’s strength, and despite the Patriots’ overall struggles this season, the New England run defense has been excellent, giving up just 3.48 yards per carry, the second-best mark in the NFL. If the Patriots decide to stack the run, the Colts will have to be creative to get Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss free in the running game.
2. If New England does go all-out to stop the run, the Colts need Gardner Minshew to make the Patriots pay. When Jacksonville used the strategy, Minshew turned the ball over too many times, and when Carolina shifted that way last week, he didn’t push the ball down the field. Minshew is averaging 6.7 yards per attempt this season; the Colts offense needs him to make more plays in the passing game.
3. The Colts are dealing with a banged-up wide receiving corps. Rookie wide receiver Josh Downs, who briefly tried to give a knee injury a go last week in Carolina before coming out of the game, will be a game-time decision, according to head coach Shane Steichen. The same goes for the team’s No. 3 receiver, Alec Pierce, and both are listed as questionable. If one or both of the Colts young starters can’t go, a thin Indianapolis passing attack will have to rely on Isaiah McKenzie (seven catches, 51 yards this season) and Juwann Winfree, still searching for his first catch this season.
4. Indianapolis has turned the ball over 14 times this season, a number that ranks 23rd in the NFL, but that doesn’t mean the Patriots will be able to take advantage. New England ranks 24th in the league in turnovers, forcing just nine — five interceptions, four fumbles — so far this season.
Bernhard Raimann vs. Bill Belichick, part II
5. Few players have to feel better about Sunday’s game than Bernhard Raimann, the Austrian left tackle who will have 18 friends and family in the stands in Frankfurt, including 17 who have never seen him play because they still live in Austria and Germany. Raimann was a rookie starter who struggled in last season’s offensive debacle in New England. In his second season, he’s blossomed into a promising left tackle, and the Patriots don’t have defensive end Matt Judon, who tore his bicep at the beginning of October.
6. Patriots linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley was a terror against Washington last week, racking up 13 tackles and two sacks. Bentley leads New England with 68 tackles this season, and he’s an adept blitzer — he ranks second on the team with seven quarterback hits, trailing only Judon.
7. Indianapolis gets right tackle Braden Smith back for the first time in four weeks — the veteran was listed without an injury status for Sunday’s game — shoring up the pass protection against a New England pass rush that hasn’t produced much since Judon went down, picking up just six sacks over the past four games. The Patriots rank 29th in the NFL in sacks per pass attempt.
8. The loss of the pass rush has made New England particularly susceptible to the pass. The Patriots are giving up 285.5 passing yards over the past four games.
9. For all of their foibles, the Patriots have been excellent in the red zone this season, ranking fifth in the NFL, and New England goes up against a Colts offense that has been 11th in the league in the same category, riding some of Shane Steichen’s most innovative designs in that area of the field.
10. New England has traditionally been known for its special teams under Belichick, but the Patriots are averaging just 6.8 yards per return while rotating through four different return men. The mark ranks 27th in the NFL.
11. Colts kicker Matt Gay is earning every penny of the deal he signed last spring. Gay is now 16 of 18 this season and 6 of 7 from 50 yards or more, the only miss coming on an otherworldly block by Cleveland superstar Myles Garrett.
Just how bad is the Patriots' offense?
12. New England hasn’t done much of anything right on offense this season. The Patriots rank 27th in total offense, 24th in yards per play, 28th in rushing, 25th in yards per carry, 26th in yards per passing attempt and tied for 23rd in turnovers, coughing up 14 so far this season.
13. One thing the Patriots do well is get the ball out of the hands of Mac Jones. New England is giving up sacks on just 5.59% of pass attempts, sixth in the NFL, and has given up 18 overall, but the Patriots will not have tackle Trent Brown, who is out due to an ankle injury and a personal matter.
14. A young Indianapolis secondary has been pliable when the defensive line isn’t producing consistent pressure this season, especially without injured rookie JuJu Brents, but the Patriots have few weapons on the outside who can test third cornerback Darrell Baker Jr. New England’s leading receiver, Kendrick Bourne, is out for the season, and DeVante Parker will miss his second straight game with a concussion. Baker held up well against a Panthers offense that’s thin at wide receiver like the Patriots.
15. The Colts need to get defensive ends Kwity Paye (half a sack since Week 3) and Samson Ebukam (no sacks in his last three games) going again.
16. DeForest Buckner destroyed Carolina early, and he leads Indianapolis in sacks (five), tackles-for-loss (six) and quarterback hits (nine). New England likely won’t make the same mistake as the Panthers, directing all of its attention toward the Indianapolis Pro Bowl candidate. Buckner always faces a lot of double teams; the Patriots might make it more than ever.
17. New England has problems at quarterback against any opponent. Jones is averaging a paltry 6.1 yards per attempt this season, has thrown nine picks and was benched against Dallas in favor of backup Bailey Zappe. With few weapons on the outside, the Colts shouldn’t fear the Patriot passing game.
18. Zaire Franklin, the NFL’s leader in tackles, is listed as questionable, but he was a full participant in practice Friday. If Franklin comes back, it would be a shot in the arm for a run defense that has given up 149.7 yards per game since losing nose tackle Grover Stewart to suspension.
19. Shaquille Leonard still wants to play more at linebacker. Defensive coordinator Gus Bradley remains set on rotating Leonard and E.J. Speed, and even if Franklin can’t go on Sunday, the Colts have already shown that they’d use Segun Olubi in the middle instead of sliding over Leonard.
Will the Patriots' running game get healthy against the Colts
20. New England is only averaging 3.7 yards per carry this season, but the Patriots have a reliable backfield tandem of Rhamondre Stevenson and Ezekiel Elliott — if not an explosive one. The way the Colts defense has been playing lately, several struggling running games have found their mark without Stewart or a healthy Franklin in the middle of the unit.
21. Third downs have been an area of strength in Indianapolis. The Colts are giving up conversions at a 37.9% rate, good for 11th in the NFL, and New England’s offense has been terrible, converting on just 33.1%, 27th.
22. Second-year free safety Rodney Thomas II has battled consistency issues this season.
23. Kenny Moore II, first claimed by the Colts off waivers, is in the middle of a remarkable recovery season. One year after struggling in Bradley’s defense, Moore leads Indianapolis in interceptions (three), tackles-for-loss (seven), ranks third with 61 tackles and has added 1.5 sacks as a blitzer for good measure. He should be hunting against Jones.
This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Colts vs. Patriots: 23 things to watch as rivalry moves to Germany
