Insider: 14 things to watch in Colts vs. Texans

INDIANAPOLIS — The commercials write themselves.

The first installment of Anthony Richardson vs. C.J. Stroud is scheduled for 1 p.m. Sunday at NRG Stadium in Houston (WXIN-59), a battle between the No. 4 and No. 2 picks in the 2023 NFL Draft that is supposed to happen twice a year for the foreseeable future, even if Richardson has learned it’s best not to buy into battling another quarterback.

Some late-breaking news Friday threw a little bit of uncertainty into the highly anticipated rookie matchup, although there will still be plenty to watch for a Colts fan base eager to see how its potential franchise quarterback develops this season.

Will C.J. Stroud play vs. the Colts?

1. Stroud popped up on the Houston injury report with an injury to his throwing shoulder, and the rookie is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game. If Stroud cannot play, the Texans would likely turn to Davis Mills, who has been the team’s primary starting quarterback the past two seasons.

2. The availability of Stroud is a big deal for the FOX affiliates carrying the game. It is likely less of an issue for the Indianapolis defense. While Stroud and Mills are different quarterbacks, both are primarily pocket passers, and in Stroud’s first start against Baltimore last week, his passing profile was a lot like the one Mills put together: a capable thrower who didn’t attack much down the field. The one key difference, at least from the small sample size of Stroud’s career so far, is the rookie took five sacks without throwing an interception in nearly 50 dropbacks last week, and Mills has limited sacks but thrown 25 interceptions the past two seasons.

3. Unlike Jacksonville, a team that tested a young Colts cornerback room with big-name receivers, the Texans have little star power at the receiver position outside. A 33-year-old Robert Woods is Houston’s No. 1 receiver, a consistent possession receiver who no longer has the same deep speed, and the Texans hope third-year target Nico Collins can build on the six-catch, 80-yard performance he posted in the opener against Baltimore. Darrell Baker Jr. was victimized on two key plays by Jacksonville receivers; the task is much easier this week.

4. Houston’s big free-agent signing on offense, former Cowboys tight end Dalton Schultz, caught just two passes for four yards in the opener, but it’s likely the Texans want to get him more involved, although Indianapolis strong safety Julian Blackmon has the coverage skills to play in the nickel and could be a tough test.

Why the Colts pass rush could get a boost this week

5. A strong Indianapolis front made life difficult on Jacksonville’s running game, and it should dominate the line of scrimmage against the Texans this week. Houston rushed for just 72 yards on 23 carries against Baltimore, and the Texans have injuries at both tackles. Right tackle Tytus Howard is out the first four weeks after breaking his hand, putting veteran George Fant in the starting role, and left tackle Laremy Tunsil — Houston’s best player — is questionable with a knee injury that allowed him to practice only on Thursday this week.

6. The injuries at tackle should have the Colts pass rush licking its chops. Indianapolis acquitted itself well against Jacksonville’s quick-throw attack — Kwity Paye and DeForest Buckner each recorded sacks, Buckner’s leading to a wild touchdown — and Houston gave up five sacks of Stroud in the opener.

7. Shaquille Leonard turned in a solid opener, making eight tackles while playing 60 snaps, but he still believes there’s another level to hit, and it will be interesting to see if the Colts continue to give him rest. According to defensive coordinator Gus Bradley, Indianapolis tried to make sure Leonard didn’t take too many snaps in a row against Jacksonville, but that could change as he proves he’s ready for action.

8. Zaire Franklin was a monster against Jacksonville, following his breakout 2022 season with 18 tackles in the 2023 opener. Houston uses a two-headed approach at running back, sharing carries between Dameon Pierce — the more explosive of the two backs — and veteran Devin Singletary, but neither got going against Baltimore, and now they have to deal with Franklin.

Expect Colts RB Zack Moss to play

9. Colts running back Zack Moss, who wasn’t given an injury designation this week, will likely make his 2023 debut, and the Indianapolis ground game desperately needs Moss’ blend of vision, power and professionalism. Indianapolis running backs picked up just 25 yards on 16 carries last week, fumbled twice and ultimately left a lot of room for improvement.

10. The Colts are facing their own injuries on the offensive line. Left guard Quenton Nelson is questionable after suffering a toe injury against the Jaguars, and right tackle Braden Smith is battling knee and ankle injuries, although he practiced in full twice this week. Houston’s defensive line piled up four sacks and seven quarterback hits against Baltimore superstar Lamar Jackson last week, and although the Indianapolis offensive line played better than its four sacks allowed would indicate, a Houston front led by No. 3 pick Will Anderson will be no pushover.

11. The way Houston played against Baltimore suggests the Colts offense might be in for a similar performance this week. The Texans held Jackson to just 169 passing yards, gave up 6.3 yards per carry to the quarterback but only allowed six carries and slowed down Baltimore’s running backs, limiting them to 63 yards on 24 carries. Indianapolis didn’t have many explosive plays against Jacksonville, and it seems like the Texans are going to try to do the same.

12. One complicating factor for Houston: The Texans will not have either starting safety. Veteran Jimmie Ward remains out due to a hip injury, and rising star Jalen Pitre suffered a bruised lung against Baltimore. With those two out, Eric Murray and M.J. Stewart played a solid second half last week, and they’ll be key to keeping the Colts from pushing the ball deep.

13. Richardson completed 23 of 37 passes in his debut, looking like a more accurate passer than most expected, but a lot of his throws were short passes, targeted to the middle of the field, and the Colts produced just three passes of 20 yards or more. Expect Indianapolis to try to get its outside receivers more involved early; Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce did not have a target in the opener until the second half.

14. Pierce, the team’s best deep threat, had a quiet opener, catching just one pass for five yards. Indianapolis wants to get him involved earlier this week, facing off against a pair of Houston cornerbacks that include a veteran, Steven Nelson, and an up-and-coming star, 2022 first-round pick Derek Stingley Jr.

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Colts vs. Texans: 14 things to watch