Indiana football vs. Ohio State: Scouting report, prediction
BLOOMINGTON — Indiana football’s 21 transfers should avoid diving into the history books to learn more about the program’s rivalry with Ohio State.
It would make for some depressing reading.
The Hoosiers have lost 28 straight to Ohio State going back to 1991. It’s the longest win streak in the series history for either school — Indiana’s longest win streak in the series is only three games — and the longest current losing streak for any FBS team against one team (the next longest is Alabaman’s 23-game win streak over Vanderbilt).
Indiana has a long way to go to set the record for futility against a single opponent, a record that currently belongs to Navy for its 43-game losing streak to Notre Dame from 1964 to 2006.
Those transfers shouldn’t focus as much as righting the wrongs of the past as putting a solid first foot forward. It’s why the coaching staff has told the team to “take the Ohio State out of it” during the last two weeks of game prep.
“They told us to look at them as nameless, faceless objects,” Indiana linebacker Aaron Casey said.
Ohio State reloads while Indiana hit the reset button
There is a vast, or maybe VAST would be the more appropriate way to write it, gap in experience between the two teams.
Colorado, one of the few teams more active in the transfer portal than Indiana was last year, compiled some data on the least experienced teams in the FBS. They put together lists on the teams with fewest starters returning (offense and defense) and fewest combined starts returning (offense and defense).
Indiana features prominently on both lists.
More: Four bold predictions for Indiana football in 2023
Fewest starters returning (offense and defense)
3: Colorado
5: Stanford
6: New Mexico
8: Indiana, Liberty, Old Dominion, Texas State and South Carolina
Fewest combined starts returning (offense and defense)
36: Colorado
115: Florida
123: Texas State
136: Indiana
139: Arizona State
Ohio State has 16 returning starters from last year (seven on offense and seven on defense) that includes:
Receiver Marvin Harrison Jr, a preseason Heisman candidate
Running back TreVeyon Henderson, a 1,000-yard back
Defensive end J.T. Tuimoloau, first-team Big Ten last year
Linebacker Tommy Eichenberg, the team’s leader tackler last year and second-team All-American
Cornerback Denzel Burke, a former freshman All-American
That kind paints a clear picture of the challenge Indiana is facing on Saturday.
Indiana can’t do much worse on defense than it did last year
Ohio State matched a record in the series between the Big Ten rivals with 56 points last season (1957 and 1983). It was never really a game with the Buckeyes going up 21-0 in the first quarter and coasting to an easy victory from there. They scored three explosive touchdowns — a 58-yard pass, 48-yard run and 71-yard run — and finished with 662 total yards (9.1 yards per play).
That was OSU’s most yards against a Power Five opponent since a 2019 win over Maryland and the most yards given up during Tom Allen’s tenure (and most overall since a 2014 loss to Michigan State).
Worst case scenario, the NCAA’s new clock rules prevent Ohio State from matching that production, but Indiana is hoping they bulked up enough in the trenches to prevent the Buckeyes from running all over the field.
Defensive end Andre Carter (Western Michigan), defensive tackle Philip Blidi (Texas Tech) and outside linebacker Lanell Carr Jr. (West Virginia) will be at the center of that effort. They will be starting up front and all received rave reviews throughout the offseason for the impact they’ve had.
The Jaylin Lucas effect
The training wheels are off for the Indiana running back.
Lucas worked his way into a starring role midway through last season as a true freshman and closed out the year by winning All-American honors. He led the team with 944 all-purpose yards and was the only player in the FBS with multiple kick returns for touchdowns.
More: What will Indiana football’s depth chart look like in season opener?
The offseason kicked off an eight-month process to expand the running back’s role for 2023 in just about every way.
Lucas handled it all.
"He's spent a lot of time with wideouts going back to spring, more than 50 percent of his time with the running backs also as a returner,” Indiana offensive coordinator Walt Bell, said on Monday. “He's a guy that's 100 percent willing to do the work, for us, he can basically do everything a running back or wideout can do.”
Bell, who referred to Lucas as the offense’s “move around toy”, is the one now tasked with making sure the running back hits the minimum touch count the coaching staff has put in place. Indiana isn’t announcing that number publicly, but it’s certainly higher than what Lucas averaged as a freshman (7.8 touches).
“You see this challenge every week in the NFL, it's a very matchup-oriented league,” Bell said.
He had 11 touches against Ohio State last year with 105 yards and much of that production came on special teams (four kick returns for 82 yards).
Can Lucas get loose in space against a defense featuring linebacker Tommy Eichenberg? Bell said Eichenberg might be the most talented player in the country at his position. What about OSU’s special teams units? Will getting the Buckeyes in Week 1 leave them more open to mistakes in that phase of the game.
Will Indiana football’s offense pack a punch?
Indiana coach Tom Allen told fans listening to his weekly radio show on Wednesday night that the strength of this year’s team will be the athleticism they have on offense.
The fan base would welcome that development since the Hoosiers had one of the least explosive offenses in the country last year. They ranked No. 110 out 131 teams with 140 plays of 10-yards or more and 126th in the country with 4.48 yards per play.
Indiana had more negative plays (11 including four sacks) against Ohio State last year than gains of 10-yards or more.
They also had nine three-and-outs.
Allen saw a more dynamic offense in fall camp thanks to improvements made at the skill positions.
The transfer portal helped out here as well with receivers E.J. Williams Jr. (Clemson) and DeQuece Carter (Fordham) expected to be featured heavily in the rotation along with running back Christian Turner (Wake Forest). Throw in the expanded role for Lucas at multiple positions, a healthy Cam Camper, some improved redshirt freshmen (Kamryn Perry and Omar Cooper) and the Hoosiers should give offensive coordinator Walt Bell plenty to work with.
Prediction: Ohio State 41, Indiana 10
Ohio State’s offense might need time to adjust to a new quarterback and play caller, but that doesn’t give an Indiana team working in close to two dozen transfers into the mix on top of an inexperienced starting quarterback.
The Hoosiers would probably feel pretty good about themselves on Monday if they kept things close through the first half, but even that feels like an uphill climb given all the new pieces they will be debuting. The best news for Indiana? It doesn’t have to face Ohio State again
Michael Niziolek is the Indiana beat reporter for The Bloomington Herald-Times. You can follow him on Twitter @michaelniziolek and read all his coverage by clicking here.
This article originally appeared on The Herald-Times: Indiana football vs. Ohio State: Scouting report, prediction
