Indiana football vs. Louisville: Scouting report, prediction
BLOOMINGTON — Indiana’s game against Louisville at Lucas Oil Stadium on Saturday is a fork in the road moment.
The Hoosiers path to bowl eligibility becomes a lot easier if they can score their first win over a non-conference Power Five opponent since 2018 while a loss would renew concerns about the direction of a program that’s 7-19 since 2021 (2-17 against Power Five teams).
Indiana coach Tom Allen knows that.
It’s why he was so quick to point out all the mistakes the Hoosiers made in a 41-7 win over Indiana State.
This was a statistically dominant performance, but Allen was “ticked off” it wasn’t a shut out and used the same phrase to describe how he felt watching film of the defense briefly letting up in the second quarter.
He's trying to raise the bar for a roster he believes is capable of getting the program back on track.
Louisville’s running game brings the BOOM
Louisville has No. 3-ranked rushing offense in the country going into Week 3.
The Cardinals are averaging 285.5 yards per game (7.3 per carry) and the 344 yards they rushed for against Murray State were the program's most since a 2021 win over Duke.
Those numbers are in stark contrast to the Purdue teams Jeff Brohm coached. The Boilermakers averaged less than 100 rushing yards per game from 2019-21 and finished among the bottom 10 rushing offenses in the country during that stretch.
Indiana coach Tom Allen noted the difference this week multiple times.
“They're running the football a lot better in these first two games than maybe they have in the past places he's been, which puts more pressure on your defense, without question,” Allen said, on Monday.
Louisville starting running back Jawhar Jordan and his explosiveness have been a big part of that. He has two 70-plus-yard touchdown runs and leads the FBS with 16.5 yards per carry. Louisville also has two other running backs averaging more than five yards per carry with at least 10 rushing attempts.
“His yards per carry is ridiculous,” Allen said, of Jordan on his weekly radio show. “He’s one of those guys that can take it to the house any time. I was really impressed with some of the tackles he broke that first week cause he’s more of a speed guy, but he showed he has power.”
Indiana held Ohio State to 143 yards in the opener — the Hoosiers gave up 340 rushing yards on the ground to OSU last year — and are allowing only 3.4 yards per carry through two games.
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Can IU’s offense catch Louisville by surprise?
Indiana eliminated some of the uncertainty for Louisville when they announced Tayven Jackson as starting quarterback, but Brohm said there are still plenty of unknowns about the Hoosiers' offense.
“(Tayven) Jackson, who we recruited at Purdue, is a very talented quarterback who can throw and run,” Brohm said. “...They've been able to mix in some option concepts as well as their normal running and passing offense.”
“It makes you defend a lot of different elements. Every year we've played Indiana in the past, it's been a very tight football game and it goes down to the wire. So I think it makes you prepare for a lot of different things that they can throw at you."
Indiana couldn't fully commit to those option concepts against Ohio State after falling behind and they all but vanished from the game plan against Indiana State, but the coaching staff could have been saving those play calls for when they had a full-time quarterback in place.
The Hoosiers rotations are still tweaking their rotations at running back and receiver as well.
Starting running back Jaylin Lucas has yet to hit the 20-plus touch mark the coaching staff set for him — he dealt with cramping in the second half of the season-opener — and Christian Turner has been slowed with an ankle injury.
The receiver room has some injury questions going into Saturday’s game (Cam Camper and E.J. Williams), but the emergence of former high school teammates Omar Cooper Jr. and Donaven McCulley sparked the passing game last week and they have been rotating seven receivers when fully healthy.
It’s worth noting here that Louisville gave up 336 yards of offense and touchdowns on four straight possessions in the first half against Georgia Tech two weeks ago.
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Prediction: Indiana 24, Louisville 21
Indiana has plenty to prove as 10-point underdogs in their home state. It’s not all that surprising given their recent track record away from Bloomington — they have gone 2-9 in road/neutral site games over the last two years — and facing Jeff Brohm, who was 4-1 against IU during his time at Purdue. This Indiana defense is better equipped than the ones Brohm beat up in recent years and that should give Jackson a chance to win if he continues to play with poise.
Michael Niziolek is the Indiana beat reporter for The Bloomington Herald-Times. You can follow him on Twitter @michaelniziolek and read all his coverage by clicking here.
This article originally appeared on The Herald-Times: Previewing Indiana football's Week 3 matchup against Louisville
