'I'm not changing': Will John Calipari going all-in on freshmen pay off for UK in 2023-24?

LEXINGTON — In the exclusive club reserved for college basketball national champions, the past decade has shown there might as well be a sign on the door that reads, "Freshmen need not apply."

Thanks to the extra year of eligibility afforded to every athlete during the coronavirus pandemic, as well as the ability to transfer one time without penalty, college basketball is as old as it's ever been. And the rosters of the past 10 national champions reflect that reality: Only four freshmen — Alex Karaban (UConn ’23), Kihei Clark (Virginia ‘19), Omari Spellman (Villanova ‘18) and Jalen Brunson (Villanova ’16) — have started for national championship squads in that span.

Even the schools that haven't made deep runs in the NCAA Tournament have been flush to the gills in experience.

Per NCAA data cited by the Associated Press, "the number of incoming freshmen in Division I men’s basketball fell by 18.2%" between the 2019-20 pre-pandemic season (1,106 players) and 2021-22 (905 players). The AP reported the effect was even more pronounced in the Power Five football leagues — the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC — where freshmen numbers in men's college hoops fell by 24.5% from 2019-20 (237 players) to 2021-22 (179 players).

None of these facts faze Kentucky coach John Calipari, who has taken a page from his (mostly successful) past: going all-in on freshmen, many of whom are expected to be his latest one-and-done NBA draftees. Eight of the Wildcats' 12 primary scholarship players — two-thirds of the roster — are freshmen.

"I'm not changing," Calipari said last month. "I'm going to recruit the best freshman player that I can get. We are going to help them do what we are supposed to do to prepare them to create habits (and) prepare them for the rest of their lives. We are going to bring them together, care about them. … So let's play it out."

Those around the SEC are convinced Calipari's strategy can work — even if no national champion since Duke in 2015 was powered by freshmen phenoms. And even if those same conference coaches have constructed their rosters to be in tune with the "upperclassmen-first" approach.

Only time will tell if Calipari's gamble pays off.

Rest of SEC 'trying to get old and trying to stay old'

Auburn has established itself as one of the SEC's best programs recently. The Tigers have made the NCAA Tournament all four times they've been eligible the past six seasons (they imposed a postseason ban on themselves in 2020-21 stemming from violations committed by former assistant Chuck Person, while the COVID pandemic canceled the 2019-20 postseason). In the four seasons it received bids to the Big Dance, Auburn won at least 20 games each time, with three 25-win seasons and a school-record 30 victories in 2018-19 — when it reached the Final Four for the first time in program history, dispatching Kentucky in overtime in the Elite Eight.

During this basketball boom at one of the league's historic football powers, Auburn coach Bruce Pearl has had his share of high-profile freshmen. It's a group that includes four one-and-done draft picks: Jabari Smith Jr. (No. 3 overall in 2022), JT Thor (second-round selection in 2021), Sharife Cooper (also second-round selection in 2021) and Isaac Okoro (No. 5 overall in 2020).

Despite that lavish return on freshmen investment, Pearl said he's been forced to change his recruiting strategy to keep pace.

"The bottom line is that (a) 21-year-old has got a lot of advantages, both in experience and just ability, size, toughness, so on, so forth," Pearl said at SEC media day last month in Birmingham, Alabama. "I think everybody is trying to get old and trying to stay old. … The result now will be, rather than me bringing in three or four high school players in each class, then maybe a transfer, I think the reality (is) we'll bring in one or two high school players, and then fill the roster up with transfers."

Matt McMahon is keenly aware of the impact the transfer phenomenon is having on mid-major schools, where their stars now can leave and play for teams in bigger leagues. McMahon is in his second season at LSU. But he coached Ja Morant at Murray State. Had rules been different when Morant was still in college, perhaps he would have left for a school with a bigger platform. It's "a new era," McMahon acknowledged.

Even he, in the middle of rebuilding the Tigers' program, jumped on the transfer train this offseason, adding six players who spent last season at other Division I schools — including former Kentucky forward Daimion Collins.

"When I'm recruiting a transfer portal player, for example, I can no longer evaluate him as a 17-year-old high school senior," McMahon said. "We have to evaluate him based upon his body of work in college."

Unlike Pearl, McMahon plans to devote more time to recruiting high school prospects once LSU is back on stable ground.

"I think from the high school aspect, we still have a formula that we like to follow," he said. "There's certain traits that we're looking for in the players we recruit. Now through the use of the portal this spring, I think we're well-positioned to recruit at a really high level from the high school ranks (in) the (classes) of '24 and '25."

While there are benefits to adding transfers — players who have experience at the college level, already know how to acclimate into new surroundings and are familiar with learning offensive and defensive systems — it's never a guarantee it will bear fruit.

"When you think about the portal, you go into it, obviously, to address direct needs that you feel like you need to answer," said Tennessee coach Rick Barnes, who added two highly touted transfers (Jordan Gainey and Dalton Knecht) to his 2023-24 roster. "I don't know if you can know that until you get there. … I've said that, 'Until you live with someone every day — you're with them — you don't know exactly what you're going to get out of them."

C.L. Brown: Rob Dillingham, not DJ Wagner, might be just what Kentucky basketball needs at PG

'John's going to do it his way'

Sure, Pearl conceded, Kentucky will have to lean on its freshmen more than arguably any team in the country. But he joked "nobody is feeling sad" for Calipari given the freshmen in question: They comprised the nation's top-ranked class in 2023, with four of them (Aaron Bradshaw, Rob Dillingham, Justin Edwards and D.J. Wagner) projected as first-round picks next year according to USA TODAY's latest mock draft.

"He's got some tremendous players, tremendous kids, guys that are going to be lottery. He's going to coach 'em up," Pearl said. "Look, they're going to guard. They're going to play for each other. Typically those teams get better throughout the season because they are so young."

That youth, talented as it may be, is the greatest challenge facing Calipari.

"The word that John probably doesn't like, like any other coach, is 'patience,'" Barnes said. "You have to be really patient when you have that many young guys, because you want to see 'em get better every day.

"Most young guys will have a good day, maybe next day not so much. If you tell them they've had a good day, you can almost bet it's not going to be as good the next day."

That so many people are counting out the inexperienced Wildcats — they own the lowest preseason ranking in both major polls (No. 16) in Calipari's 15-season tenure, while they were picked to finish fourth in the SEC by league media and USA TODAY Sports Network experts — irks them to no end.

"With the guys we have, we all naturally have that chip, because now you have people saying that the young guys can't get it done," senior forward Tre Mitchell said.

Bradshaw, who is still recovering from a foot injury that prevented him from playing in the GLOBL JAM tournament this summer as well as UK's Blue-White scrimmage and its two exhibition games, possesses an unwavering belief in Kentucky's potential.

"There's a lot of talent on this court, I ain't gonna lie, especially with this team," he said. "It's a lot of talent, it's a lot of versatility and it's a lot of dogs. This whole team is full of dogs, ya feel me?

"So regardless of who we face, experienced or not, we're gonna go after them and we're just gonna do the best we can."

Arkansas coach Eric Musselman had no worries about Calipari molding his team into a legitimate national title threat come March.

"Coach Calipari, there's no one better at coaching younger players," Musselman said. "There's no one better in the country — probably no one better in the history of college basketball — coaching young guys. I don't think there's even a close second.

"So yes, I do think they can have great success even though they are young, 'cause he's got lottery picks. When you have lottery picks, first-round picks, you're going to win games."

Calipari led the Wildcats to four Final Fours in his first six seasons, which included a national championship in 2012, with teams that featured freshmen in prominent roles. So he knows, as well as anyone in the sport, when a squad driven by freshmen passes the eye test.

He already likes the look of this team. Players are "competitive as heck" at practice. It gets "chippy" between them at times, Calipari said. But he can tell how quickly they've bonded.

"I've said it before: If you ask me, 'Talent (versus) experience?' I'm taking talent," Calipari said. "The talent usually figures it out."

Pearl couldn't find fault with that line of thinking.

"I think if I had the ability to recruit five stars at every position, I wouldn't be turning them down just to do something different," Pearl said. "John's going to do it his way."

UK scouting report: Early breakdown of new faces on John Calipari's 2023-24 roster

Reach Kentucky men’s basketball and football reporter Ryan Black at rblack@gannett.com and follow him on X at @RyanABlack.

This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Kentucky basketball: John Calipari sticking with youth as game changes