Hurricane Ian won't hit NJ like Ida, but remnants could bring some needed rain

Hurricane Ian made landfall Wednesday afternoon on Florida's west coast near Cayo Costa as a powerful Category 4 storm, as New Jersey meteorologists carefully watched and waited to see if its course would track it over the Garden State in the coming days.

National weather experts said Ian had sustained winds of 150 mph Wednesday afternoon, but whether its strength will last long over land is uncertain.

If Ian heads north toward New Jersey, the storm's remnants would not be felt until the weekend, said Paul Fitzsimmons, lead forecaster at the National Weather Service's Mount Holly Station.

"The most likely impacts would be some rainfall and potentially some gusty winds," he said.

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Rain remains a need across most of New Jersey. Monmouth County is nearly 8 inches below its normal rainfall for the last 90 days and most of the state is experiencing some level of drought, according to the US Drought Monitor.

Current projections say Ian could bring 3 to 4 inches of rain to southernmost New Jersey, said David Robinson, the state climatologist and a professor of climatology at Rutgers University. That rain could bring some welcome relief against the state's months-long drought, especially in the driest areas of Monmouth, southern Middlesex and northern Ocean counties, he said.

"We really could use the rain," said Robinson. "We've got significant deficits to make up."

Hurricane Ian is not likely to devastate New Jersey the way the remnants of Hurricane Ida did in 2021, said Steven DiMartino, meteorologist and owner of the weather forecasting company NY NJ PA Weather. Ida landed in Louisiana as a Category 4 hurricane before bringing torrential downpours, tornadoes and flooding to New Jersey on Sept. 1, 2021. The storm killed 30 people in the state.

Ian is not likely to do the same in New Jersey, DiMartino said.

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"There's a different upper level pattern in place," he said. "What's going to happen is that it's going to cut through Florida and then start to drift up into Georgia."

From there, Ian will weaken into a tropical storm. A high pressure system to its north will act like a roadblock and keep Ian's worst impacts limited to Maryland and states to the south, the meteorologist said.

Is Hurricane Ian going to hit New Jersey?

Over the weekend, the storm will move closest to New Jersey and bring scattered showers from the Atlantic as well as easterly winds to coastal communities, DiMartino said. Downpours are more likely across southern New Jersey in areas like Cape May and Atlantic City, he added. Scattered showers will be more likely through northern areas of the state, he said.

"Just keep an eye out for the coastal flooding … especially because of the easterly wind," DiMartino said. "Be prepared for that."

With the storm still days away, the forecast remains highly uncertain, said Fitzsimmons, of the National Weather Service.

"It's something we'll be watching closely," he said.

Amanda Oglesby is an Ocean County native who covers Brick, Barnegat and Lacey townships as well as the environment. She has worked for the Press for more than a decade. Reach her at @OglesbyAPP, aoglesby@gannettnj.com or 732-557-5701.

This article originally appeared on Asbury Park Press: Is Hurricane Ian going to hit New Jersey? Remnants could bring rain