How the Power Five women's basketball conference titles will be won
It's the final two weeks of the regular season for most of the teams in the country and there are regular season titles on the line as well as seeding for conference tournaments. Most programs have four contests left and some have an easier road than others. It's make or break time.
Here's where the Power Five conferences stand, plus the Big East for good measure.
Big Ten: Log jam at the top, but Maryland in good spot
Leader — Indiana (10-2, .833)
In contention — Michigan (11-3, .786) Ohio State (11-3, .786), Maryland (11-3, .786), Iowa (10-4, .714 1 GB), Michigan State (7-6, 3.5 GB), Nebraska (8-6, 3.5 GB).
No conference has more on the line over the next two weeks than the Big Ten. Four teams are at the top and another within a game after a chaotic weekend that saw Michigan lose back-to-back games, Indiana be upset on Monday night and Maryland do away with Iowa. The Wolverines came into the week leading the standings and Indiana briefly held a half-game lead until Monday's games.
The Hoosiers can bounce back and hold the conference with a 14-2 record by winning out. That would consists of Northwestern (14-9, 6-6), back-to-back games against Iowa — always a tough ask to beat a team twice consecutively — and the finale against Maryland. One loss could drop them below other teams because they are scheduled to play fewer games after cancellations for COVID-19 health and safety protocols.
It's the No. 13-ranked Terrapins who have the most difficult final stretch, but the one with the most ability to move up. Their final three games are against the three teams with whom they're tied atop the standings (Indiana leads by winning percentage having played fewer games). They'll play No. 18 Ohio State on Thursday, No. 9 Michigan on Sunday and No. 5 Indiana on Feb. 25. In addition to the win over No. 22 Iowa on Monday night, it's the only four-game stretch of ranked opponents in the Buckeyes' schedule.
Every game on the Big Ten schedule matters right now, especially as the top seeds sort themselves out ahead of tournament seeding. The top four have byes into the quarterfinals and with every team so close, matchups in the bracket will be of utmost importance.
What to watch
No. 18 Ohio State (19-4, 11-3) at No. 13 Maryland (19-6, 11-3), Thursday at 8 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network
No. 22 Iowa (16-7, 10-4) at No. 5 Indiana (18-4, 10-2), Saturday at 4 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network+
No. 13 Maryland (19-6, 11-3) at No. 9 Michigan (20-4, 11-3), Sunday at 3 p.m. ET on Big Ten Network
SEC: South Carolina-Tennessee will determine champion
Leader — South Carolina (11-1)
In contention — Tennessee (10-2, 1 GB), LSU (9-3, 2 GB), Florida (9-3, 2 GB)
It speaks to the talent of this conference up and down the standings that South Carolina is far and away the best team in the country, but has yet to lock up its conference regular season title. Tennessee's loss to Florida last week gave the Gamecocks extra breathing room.
The Gamecocks have Auburn (Thursday), Tennessee (Sunday), Texas A&M (Feb. 24) and Ole Miss (Feb. 27) on the schedule. The Lady Vols face Alabama (Thursday), South Carolina (Sunday), Mississippi State (Feb. 24) and LSU (Feb. 27).
South Carolina could win the regular season title with victories in those first two games. If Tennessee wins, it pulls them both into the top record and the Lady Vols hold the tiebreaker. South Carolina has the tiebreaker with LSU if they end up tied.
The Gamecocks have Auburn (Thursday), Tennessee (Sunday), Texas A&M (Feb. 24) and Ole Miss (Feb. 27) on the schedule. The Lady Vols face Alabama (Thursday), South Carolina (Sunday), Mississippi State (Feb. 24) and LSU (Feb. 27).
LSU could move into second place with Mississippi State, Florida, Alabama and Tennessee to close out. Florida could also move higher and is still mathematically in the running for the top spot. The Gators have four (Arkansas, LSU, Vanderbilt and Missouri) left after a win Monday against Alabama.
What to watch
Missouri (16-9, 5-7) at No. 21 Georgia (17-7, 6-6), Thursday at 7 p.m. ET on SECN+
No. 12 Tennessee (21-4, 10-2) at No. 1 South Carolina (23-1, 11-1), Sunday at 1 p.m. ET on ABC with ESPN Game Day
No. 17 Florida (19-6, 9-3) at No. 11 LSU (21-4, 9-3), Sunday at 4 p.m. ET on SEC Network
ACC: NC State win over Louisville as important as expected
Leader — N.C. State (14-1)
In contention — Louisville (13-1, .5 GB), Virginia Tech (11-3, 2.5 GB)
As expected, that 68-59 win by N.C. State over Louisville last month is proving to be the determining game in the regular season title. If both win out, they'll each be 17-1 and the tiebreaker goes to the Wolfpack. And Virginia Tech made sure it was in the conversation with back-to-back wins against ranked teams. The Hokies have both teams ahead of them in the standings on their closing schedule.
NC State's most daunting opponent down the stretch might be itself. The Wolfpack have had slow starts, forcing them at times to rely on fervent comebacks, but they still lead the conference in scoring margin (+16.53 to Louisville's +16.31). Wake Forest and Syracuse have a combined seven wins, but Virginia Tech nearly came back to topple the Wolfpack a few weeks ago.
Louisville has four games to complete: North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh and Notre Dame. The Cardinals crushed Pittsburgh, 81-39, and Notre Dame, 73-47, in their first meetings. The Fighting Irish (10-4, 3.5 GB), Georgia Tech (10-4, 3.5 GB) and North Carolina (9-5, 4.5 GB) are playing for better tournament seeding. The top four teams receive double byes.
What to watch
No. 3 Louisville (22-2, 13-1) at No. 24 North Carolina (19-5, 9-5), Thursday at 6 p.m. ET on ACCNX
No. 19 Notre Dame (19-6, 10-4) at No. 16 Georgia Tech (19-6, 10-4), Thursday at 8 p.m. ET on ACCN
No. 23 Virginia Tech (19-6, 11-3) at No. 3 Louisville (22-2, 13-1), Sunday at 2 p.m. ET on ACCN
Pac-12: Stanford solidly in control
Leader — Stanford (12-0)
In contention — Oregon (9-4, 3.5 GB), Arizona (8-4, 4 GB)
Stanford is a near lock to win the Pac-12 title for a second consecutive season. It would be the 25th time the program earned it, but Stanford went on a title-less streak between 2014 and 2021. The Cardinal have four favorable games on the schedule: Oregon State (defeated by 23 points), Oregon (+12), Washington State (+38) and Washington (game postponed). The Ducks were without Sedona Prince in their early January meeting that opened Pac-12 play.
It would all have to go off the rails for Stanford while Oregon won out for the teams to switch spots. The Ducks play UCLA (won by forfeit), Cal (+35), Stanford (-12), Colorado (PPD) and Utah (+4). Arizona is also in the unlikely contender pool with four games to play, making it technically enough to make up ground. They still have to make their Washington trip and host the Los Angeles squads.
What to watch
No. 2 Stanford (21-3, 12-0) at Oregon (16-8, 9-4), Sunday at 4 p.m. ET on ESPN2
Big East: UConn's schedule easy in final weeks
Leader — Connecticut (11-1)
In contention — Creighton (13-4, .5 GB), DePaul (12-4, 1 GB), Villanova (11-4, 1.5 GB), Marquette (10-5, 2.5 GB)
It's been a season of broken streaks for the Huskies, but a conference title doesn't look to be one of them. UConn has the half-game lead as of Monday and of its five games left, four are against teams below .500. Four games, including against Marquette, are at home.
Creighton and DePaul will face off on the final day of the season.
Big 12: All kinds of time
Leader — Iowa State (10-2)
In contention — Oklahoma (9-3, 1 GB), Baylor (9-3, 1 GB), Kansas (8-4, 2 GB), Texas (7-5, 3 GB), Kansas State (7-6, 3.5 GB)
The Big 12 regular season extends a week longer than the rest of the Power Five conferences and the tournament butts right up against Selection Sunday on March 13. There's plenty of time for movement in the standings, and expect it the way the Big 12 season has gone.
Iowa State moved into its highest AP ranking since 2002 on Monday at No. 6, but has a tough stretch to close out its final six games. The Cyclones play No. 14 Texas, No. 15 Oklahoma and No. 7 Baylor within the week, plus Kansas later on. Four of their six opponents have at least seven conference wins each.
Oklahoma and Baylor have an easier closing time with contests against Oklahoma State (3-10), Texas Tech (2-10) and TCU (2-10), which Baylor plays twice to start the week. Oklahoma's opponents are a combined 32-42 and Baylor's 26-48 compared to 39-33 for Iowa State.
Iowa State has only won the conference's regular season title once (2000) and Baylor is looking to keep its streak of 11 consecutive titles.
What to watch
No. 6 Iowa State (21-3, 10-2) at No. 14 Texas (17-6, 7-5), Wednesday at 8 p.m. ET on Longhorn Network
No. 15 Oklahoma (20-4, 9-3) at No. 6 Iowa State (21-3, 10-2), Saturday at 7 p.m. ET on Big 12/ESPN+
Upsets of the week
As always, for these purposes an upset is a lower or non-ranked team defeating a higher-ranked team. Rankings are as of the game, with Associated Press poll movement in parentheses.
No. 8 UConn 69, Villanova 72 (UConn down 2)
No. 4 Michigan 57, Michigan State 63 (Michigan down 5)
No. 11 Georgia Tech 63, Virginia Tech 73 (GT down 5; VT ranked No. 23)
No. 6 Arizona 77, Arizona State 81 (Arizona down 2)
No. 12 Oklahoma 63, No. 16 Texas 78 (Oklahoma down 3; Texas up 2)
No. 22 FGCU 55, Stetson 58 (FGCU down 3)
No. 4 Michigan 69, Northwestern 71 (2OT) (Michigan down 5)
No. 23 North Carolina 61, Virginia Tech 66 (North Carolina down 1; VT ranked No. 23)
No. 24 Oregon 62, Oregon State 68 (Oregon first out)
