What history tells us about Bears QB Justin Fields’ ability to succeed with a new regime

As the 2022 NFL draft inches closer and closer, the Chicago Bears can check “quarterback” off their needs list as it has become abundantly clear from both new general manager Ryan Poles and head coach Matt Eberflus that Justin Fields is their guy heading into the fall.

Fields of course was selected by former GM Ryan Pace when the Bears traded up to nab him in the 2021 NFL draft. But after just one season with him, Pace was fired, along with head coach Matt Nagy, for failing to show adequate growth and win enough games.

Fields is looking to build off an uneven rookie season that saw him throw for 1,870 yards with seven touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He also coughed up the ball 12 times in 2021 and was beaten up in the pocket. But with a new offensive coordinator and different philosophy, the hope is that Fields develops into the dynamic franchise quarterback fans have been dreaming of for a lifetime.

Poles and Eberflus have publicly backed Fields as their guy heading into the 2022 season. But even with those assurances, some insiders aren’t convinced the new regime will stick with him for the long term.

One of them is Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio, who shared with 670 The Score’s Dan Bernstein Show earlier in the week that he thinks the Bears could look to distance themselves from Fields after this season.

“It feels like the Bears are deliberately taking a step back,” Florio said. “And the problem is usually teams do that when they don’t have a QB they believe in…Maybe that’s the hidden message here, that the new regime doesn’t believe in Justin Fields.”

Florio’s take was universally panned across social media, with fans and other media members having strong opinions. After all, Fields has been front and center since Poles and Eberflus were introduced in January. He spoke at the introductory press conference and both men have raved about how the Bears are “his team” as they prepare for the upcoming season. But if recent history is any indicator, Fields may not last too long with the new regime in place.

When the Bears decided to fire Pace at the end of the 2021 season, they chose to do so knowing that he had just mortgaged the future for a rookie quarterback. Now that same quarterback is under a new GM who, while still supporting him, didn’t choose him. Firing a GM after a season in which they selected a quarterback in the first round of the NFL draft isn’t exactly common, but it’s happened a few times in recent years.

Since 2010, five GMs were fired less than a year after they had selected a quarterback with a first-round draft pick, including the Bears and Pace. Of the previous four, none of the quarterbacks selected went on to earn a second contract with their original team.

Two other general managers, Rick Smith with the Houston Texans and Buddy Nix with the Buffalo Bills, stepped down due to other circumstances after selecting a quarterback in the first round, but were not included in this list.

2012: Cleveland Browns and Brandon Weeden

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Ten years ago, the Cleveland Browns attempted to solve their quarterback woes yet again when they selected 28-year old prospect Brandon Weeden out of Oklahoma State with the 22nd overall pick. Due to his age, Weeden was already a prospect that carried some risk.

He threw for 3,385 yards with 14 touchdowns and 17 interceptions in what was a lackluster rookie campaign. At the end of the season in which the Browns went 5-11, general manager Tom Heckert and head coach Pat Shurmur were fired and replaced with Mike Lombardi and Rod Chudzinski.

Lombardi quickly jettisoned the other first-round pick from the previous draft, trading running back Trent Richardson to the Indianapolis Colts during the 2013 season. As for Weeden, he played sparingly during his second season after he suffered a thumb injury and was benched multiple times in favor of Brian Hoyer and Jason Campbell. He played in just eight games and threw nine touchdowns with nine interceptions while failing to get a win.

After another regime change the following offseason, Weeden was released after two seasons and wound up as a journeyman backup, spending time with the Dallas Cowboys, Houston Texans, and Tennessee Titans.

2015: Tennessee Titans and Marcus Mariota

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Heading into the 2015 NFL draft, the consensus top picks were quarterbacks Jameis Winston out of Florida State and Marcus Mariota out of Oregon. The Tennessee Titans, having the second pick in the draft, were guaranteed one of the top quarterbacks and ended up with Mariota.

The former Heisman winner got off to a hot start, throwing four touchdowns and no picks in his NFL debut in Week 1. For the season, he played in 12 games and had a decent start to his career. Though he only threw for 2,818 yards, he had 19 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. Unfortunately, the Titans didn’t have the same success. They finished 3-13, firing head coach Ken Whisenhunt during the season and general manager Ruston Webster after the season.

New and current general manager Jon Robinson took over in 2016 and stuck with Mariota, who ascended during his sophomore season and narrowly led the Titans to a playoff berth. Mariota threw for 3,426 with 26 touchdowns to just nine interceptions and began getting talked about as one of the up-and-coming quarterbacks in the league.

Mariota was once again efficient in 2017 and got the Titans over the hump and into the postseason. He led them to a wild card victory in a comeback win against the Kansas City Chiefs before being ousted by the New England Patriots. The Titans had picked up the fifth-year option on their quarterback, but he regressed in 2018 under new coach Mike Vrabel while also dealing with injuries.

Though he entered the 2019 season as the starter, Mariota had a short leash after the Titans traded for former Miami Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill. In Week 3, Mariota was benched and saw Tannehill spark the Titans and lead them to a wild card berth, resulting in an appearance in the AFC Championship game.

Mariota was not re-signed and spent the las two seasons as a backup with the Las Vegas Raiders. He’s now entering the 2022 season as the presumed starter with the Atlanta Falcons.

2018: New York Jets and Sam Darnold

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Believe it or not, the New York Jets selecting Sam Darnold might be the closest comparison to the Bears and Fields as they’re the only other team on this list to trade up for a quarterback before firing their general manager. In 2018, the Jets and general manager Mike Maccagnan sent a haul to the Indianapolis Colts for the 3rd overall pick to select Darnold out of USC in hopes of finally finding their next franchise signal caller.

Darnold had an uneven rookie season, passing for 2,865 yards, 17 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. Maccagnan and head coach Todd Bowles were let go after the season in favor of Joe Douglas and Adam Gase. Some believed Gase and Darnold would work well together, but that didn’t end up being the case.

Though his numbers improved from his rookie season, Darnold still had yet to take a significant step in his development. What’s worse, he dealt with a bout of mononucleosis that sidelined him for multiple weeks and was caught on television saying he was “seeing ghosts” during a Monday Night Football broadcast. Still, he had some moments and managed to have a winning record of 7-6 in the games he started.

The 2020 season was worse as Darnold regressed from his slight progress the season prior, throwing just nine touchdowns with 11 interceptions. With the second overall pick in the draft, Douglas had seen enough and shipped Darnold to the Carolina Panthers for a package of picks that included a future second and fourth-round selection. Darnold saw limited success in Carolina before crashing to earth in 2021. Though he’s listed as the starter, his status as a Panther is very much in doubt heading into the season.

2019: Washington Commanders and Dwayne Haskins

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The Washington Commanders (formerly Redskins) and president and general manager Bruce Allen used one of their two first-round picks on Ohio State standout Dwayne Haskins. He entered his rookie season as the backup, but saw extended playing time when starter Case Keenum went down with an injury.

Haskins started seven games, throwing for 1,365 yards with seven touchdowns and seven interceptions amidst a season where his head coach Jay Gruden was fired in October. At the end of the season, Allen was also let go in a major shakeup with the team.

In 2020, with a new team name, new coach in Ron Rivera, and new front office with president Jason Wright, Haskins entered the season as the starter, but was benched after four weeks. He saw two more games as a starter later in the season due to injuries, but was released before the end of the season after issues with his performance as well as COVID-19 protocols.

Haskins caught on with the Pittsburgh Steelers and spent all of last season as a backup as he worked to become a starting quarterback again. Unfortunately, Haskins tragically passed away earlier this month after being struck by a vehicle while training in Florida.

2021: Chicago Bears and Justin Fields

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As we get to Fields and Pace, it’s important to remember that each situation is different. Pace wasn’t fired due to the Fields pick, but instead because he made questionable coaching hires and mismanaged the team’s salary cap. It’s entirely possible Fields becomes the team’s answer at quarterback for the next decade, working well with Poles and Eberflus.

But at the same time, it’s a little concerning that the other quarterbacks who saw regime changes didn’t pan out with their original teams. In fact, Mariota was the only player to last more than three seasons and even with his limited success, found himself looking for a new home after his rookie deal was up.

The discourse surrounding Fields and the new regime’s desire to keep him admittedly is getting out of hand and this exercise isn’t meant to add fuel to the fire. Why would Poles already try and move away from his young quarterback, who he’s publicly backed since getting the job, when he hasn’t even played a down in the new system?

But at the same time, it’s worth noting that other players who have been in Fields’ place have found new homes just a few seasons later. Perhaps Fields will be the one to buck this trend once and for all.

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