Here's how Alabama football makes College Football Playoff – it's not just beating Georgia
Seven teams will play in conference championship games this weekend with a realistic shot at College Football Playoff qualification, while an eighth (Ohio State) sits at home with a longshot avenue toward backdoor entry.
This could become fairly simple for the playoff selection committee.
If the higher-ranked teams hold serve – Georgia, Michigan, Washington and Florida State – then it’s a tidy field of four undefeated teams from Power Five conferences.
If at least one of those undefeated teams fall, though, then the committee will face some hard choices.
On this edition of “SEC Football Unfiltered,” a podcast from the USA TODAY Network, hosts Blake Toppmeyer and John Adams unpack a series of hypothetical scenarios in which Alabama upsets Georgia in Saturday’s SEC Championship Game in Atlanta.
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If Georgia goes down in Atlanta, the committee’s job becomes more stressful.
What to do with the Bulldogs?
What to do with Alabama?
Could the SEC seriously get shut out of the last four-team playoff? (Yep.)
Here’s who we think is in, and who’s out, in these scenarios.
Scenario 1
Michigan (13-0) – Wins Big Ten
Washington (13-0) – Wins Pac-12
Florida State (13-0) – Wins ACC
Texas (12-1) – Wins Big 12
Alabama (12-1) – Wins SEC
Georgia (12-1) – Loses to Alabama
Who’s in: Michigan, Washington, FSU, Texas
Who’s out: Alabama, Georgia
Scenario 2
Michigan (13-0) – Wins Big Ten
FSU (13-0) – Wins ACC
Oregon (12-1) Wins Pac-12
Texas (12-1) – Wins Big 12
Alabama (12-1) – Wins SEC
Georgia (12-1) – Loses to Alabama
Washington (12-1) Loses to Oregon
Who’s in: Michigan, FSU, Oregon, Texas
Who’s out: Alabama, Georgia, Washington
Scenario 3
Michigan (13-0) – Wins Big Ten
Oregon (12-1) – Wins Pac-12
Texas (12-1) – Wins Big 12
Alabama (12-1) – Wins SEC
Georgia (12-1) – Loses to Alabama
FSU (12-1) – Loses to Louisville
Washington (12-1) – Loses to Oregon
Who’s in: Michigan, Oregon, Texas, Alabama
Who’s out: Georgia, FSU, Washington
Scenario 4
Oregon (12-1) – Wins Pac-12
Texas (12-1) – Wins Big 12
Alabama (12-1) – Wins SEC
Georgia (12-1) – Loses to Alabama
Michigan (12-1) – Loses to Iowa
Washington (12-1) – Loses to Oregon
FSU (12-1) – Loses to Louisville
Who’s in: Oregon, Texas, Alabama, Georgia
Who’s out: Michigan, Washington, FSU
Two-step process for Alabama
Alabama’s head-to-head loss at home to Texas in Week 2 creates a roadblock in the Tide’s path to the playoff. Alabama’s cleanest route to playoff entry can be summed up like this:
Step 1: Beat Georgia.
Step 2: Michigan, FSU or Texas must lose.
For Georgia, a win Saturday almost certainly would clinch the No. 1 seed, but a loss would leave the Bulldogs on precarious footing.
TOPPMEYER: In hiring Mike Elko, Texas A&M football shows it's more Michigan State than Michigan
GOODBREAD: Wacky wages: What each SEC school paid its head coach per win this season
ADAMS: What went wrong for Tennessee football and why 2024 could be better
Also in this episode
– If Texas A&M’s choices were between Mark Stoops and Mike Elko, we’re endorsing Elko.
– If Mississippi State’s choices were between Jeff Lebby or a Group of Five coach not named Jamey Chadwell, we’re endorsing Lebby.
Championship week picks!
Picks against the spread:
Georgia (-5) vs. Alabama
Toppmeyer: Georgia; Adams: Georgia
Washington vs. Oregon (-9.5)
Toppmeyer: Washington; Adams: Oregon
Texas (-14) vs. Oklahoma State
Toppmeyer: Oklahoma State; Adams: Oklahoma State
Florida State (-3) vs. Louisville
Toppmeyer: FSU; Adams: FSU
Michigan (-22.5) vs. Iowa
Toppmeyer: Michigan; Adams: Michigan
Lock of the week
Toppmeyer: Appalachian State vs. Troy (-6.5); Adams: New Mexico State vs. Liberty (-10.5)
Records
Adams: 34-39-2 (6-1 last week); Toppmeyer: 34-40-1 (3-4 last week)
Where to listen to SEC Football Unfiltered
Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network's SEC Columnist. John Adams is the senior columnist for the Knoxville News Sentinel. You can subscribe to their podcast, SEC Football Unfiltered, or check out the SEC Unfiltered newsletter, delivered straight to your inbox.
This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: How Alabama football makes College Playoff, plus Georgia, Texas, FSU
