Heat season preview: With trade talks stalled, Heat look for internal development
Pat Riley has always been a big-game hunter, and he’s had his sights set on All-Star swingman Jimmy Butler for the past month. Despite reportedly coming close to a deal with the Minnesota Timberwolves, Butler still hasn’t been traded, much to Riley’s chagrin.
From his time with the Los Angeles Lakers to the New York Knicks to the Miami Heat, no one knows better than Riley that stars win championships. Miami’s current roster is missing the kind of All-NBA players needed to play in late May and June. Sure, Goran Dragic was an All-Star last season, but at 32 years old he’s not going to be the centerpiece of a future contender.
Butler’s two-way versatility and his tenacious drive are a perfect fit for Riley and Erik Spoelstra’s Heat culture. With the season about to begin, Miami will have to proceed without Jimmy Buckets.
In the years following the Big 3 era, LeBron James left in free agency, Chris Bosh’s career was prematurely ended by blood clot issues and Dwyane Wade left amid a contract dispute before a reunion at last season’s trade deadline. Miami has also struck out on the big names in free agency, most notably Kevin Durant in 2016 and Gordon Hayward in 2017.
The cap spikes in 2016 and 2017 contributed to the Heat overpaying in free agency. Their payroll is littered with eight-figure salaries that haven’t played up to their paychecks. Hassan Whiteside, Tyler Johnson, James Johnson, Kelly Olynyk and Dion Waiters will combine to earn more than $83 million this season. Whiteside, the team’s highest paid player at $25.4 million, regressed last season and oftentimes found himself on the bench in close games. An ankle injury shortened Waiters’ 2018 season and he’s been reported to be a part of a Butler trade as mere salary filler.
While the Heat have given out some curious contracts, they found great value in retaining two of their recent draft picks: Justise Winslow and Josh Richardson. Winslow agreed to a three-year, $39 million extension last week and is young enough at 22 that it is reasonable to expect him to continue growing his game.
Richardson is in the middle of a four-year, $42 million deal that is proving to be a bargain for a starting wing. He’s reportedly the player the Timberwolves most covet in a Butler trade. Richardson has established himself as a standout defender while displaying a growing offensive game that saw him shoot 37.8 percent on three-pointers last season. Richardson’s statistical progression tracks similarly to Butler, who had a breakout season when he was 25 and made his first All-Star Game. Richardson turned 25 in September and has a chance to make another leap this season.
X-factor
On a roster filled with bloated salaries, the Heat will need to make the most of Bam Adebayo while he’s on his rookie contract. With Whiteside’s inconsistency potentially opening up playing time, Adebayo has a chance for a breakout sophomore season. With a 7-foot-2 wingspan and 38.5-inch vertical, he has all the tools to be an impactful defender. Check out this impressive sequence from the preseason:
Adebayo had an impressive exhibition season, averaging 13.7 points and 8.3 rebounds while shooting 62.1 percent from the field. As his offensive game develops, he should be able to establish himself as a cornerstone player for Miami.
Outlook
After a quiet offseason, the Heat bring back all their key rotation players from a 44-win team in 2017-18 that lost in the first-round to the Philadelphia 76ers. As currently constructed, Miami should return to the playoffs in the weak Eastern Conference
Early season matchups against the Wizards (Oct. 18) and Pistons (Nov. 5) will be a good opportunity for the Heat to compare themselves to teams fighting for spots in the bottom half of the playoff bracket.
The Heat very well could be a different team by the end of the day, week or month if Riley is able to complete a Butler trade. Adding Butler would give Miami a much-needed go-to scorer and another strong locker room presence.
