Group of Five Teams In New Year’s Six Bowl Hunt: 21 For 2021 Preview Topics
21 for 2021 preseason topics: No. 10. The top Group of Five college football teams that should be in the New Year’s Six bowl chase.
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This piece is almost certainly going to be wrong.
Two years ago we didn’t get Memphis – who ended up getting the New Year’s Six Bowl nod – and last season we weren’t even in the right zip code when it came to the rise of Coastal Carolina and Louisiana.
But we did have Cincinnati on the 2020 list.
So far in the College Football Playoff era, six teams from the Group of Five conferences – the American Athletic Conference, Conference USA, MAC, Mountain West, Sun Belt – have been the highest-ranked conference champion in the final CFP rankings to get the New Year’s Six spot. None of them have been able to get into the playoff, but if the tournament expands, that will change.
Boise State beat Arizona in the first shot for the Group of Five, and Houston followed it up with a win over Florida State. Western Michigan, Memphis, Cincinnati, and UCF (twice) are the other schools to get the big spotlight game, going 3-4 overall and generally playing very, very well in the losses.
This year, the Group of Five champion – if it’s not in the College Football Playoff – will either play in the Playstation Fiesta Bowl or the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl.
21 for 2021 Preview Topics (so far)
21. Thoughts, Wishes, Hopes for 2021
20. Best Teams To Not Make CFP
19: Teams That Will Rebound Big
18. Teams That Will Fall Back
17: Every Power 5 Team’s Letdown Game
16. Expectations For New Head Coaches
15. Expectations For 2nd Year Head Coaches
14. Power 5 Hot Seat Coach Rankings
13. 21 Key Transfers You Need To Know
12. Group of 5 over Power 5 Upset Alerts
11. 5 of College Football’s New Superstars
– CFN 2021 Preview: All 130 Team Previews
So what does it take for a Group of Five program to get that New Year’s Six slot? Realistically – but not technically – 1) needs to go unbeaten or finish with just one loss, 2) it should have at least one signature win to impress the College Football Playoff committee that does the rankings, and 3), as part of the requirement, it has to win its conference championship.
Here’s hoping that a few teams will rise up and shock the world, but assume that one of these teams will likely have the best shot at getting the New Year’s Six nod.
Let’s start with a total cop-out.
College Football Group of Five Programs in the New Year’s Six Hunt
5. San Jose State at Nevada winner
– CFN 2021 San Jose State Preview
Boise State is always the instant pick from the Mountain West to have a shot at the New Year’s Six bowl bid, but this year’s team is undergoing a coaching overhaul and it has a few tweaks it has to make, but there are three problems …
Non-conference schedule, non-conference schedule, non-conference schedule.
The Broncos should be strong enough in a relatively weak Mountain Division to get to the Mountain West title game, but they have to start the season at UCF, host Oklahoma State, and they have to go to BYU.
If they win all three they should probably be No. 1 on this list, if they win two of the three they’ll be in the hunt, and if they win just one, forget it. Throw in the road games at San Diego State, Colorado State and Fresno State, and it’s a tough ask.
From the West, Fresno State will be dangerous, San Diego State always has a puncher’s chance to get to the NY6, and Hawaii will be plucky, but it should – like last year – come down to the showdown between San Jose State and Nevada.
The Spartans have to go to USC, but they other three non-conference games are against Western Michigan, New Mexico State and Southern Utah. If they’re good enough to win the Mountain West title, they’ll be good enough to win all three of those.
They don’t have to play Boise State and get San Diego State and Fresno State at home. However, they start November with a trip to Reno.
The Wolf Pack are loaded with high-octane offensive talent, the overall experience is in place, and the coaching staff is hitting its stride. They have to at least split the road games against Cal and Kansas State, and they follow that up with a trip to Boise State. Throw in road games at San Diego State and Fresno State, and there’s a problem.
However, get by San Jose State, go on to win the Mountain West title, and they should be in the hunt.
NEXT: Group Of Five Teams In New Year’s Six Bowl Hunt, No. 5
4. Toledo Rockets
The MAC got the New Year’s Six nod once when PJ Fleck’s 2016 Western Michigan team went unbeaten with a conference title, but lost in a good fight with Wisconsin in the Cotton Bowl.
The conference hasn’t been all that close in the other playoff years.
The problem for the MAC tends to be all the games against Big Ten teams – and often a few other games against Power Five programs – with losses early on ending the chances before they can begin.
– Predicting Every 2021 MAC Game
This Toledo team should be the best yet under head coach Jason Candle, and it has the right schedule to make a push.
It has to go to Notre Dame early on, but Colorado State is a home game along with dates with UMass and Norfolk State. If the Rockets can get by defending MAC champion Ball State on the road and start the season 5-1, the rest of the conference season isn’t all that bad.
It won’t be a total breeze – going to Central Michigan and Ohio will be battles, and Western Michigan is good – but again, this Toledo team should be just that solid.
– CFN 2021 Preview: All 130 Team Previews
NEXT: Group Of Five Teams In New Year’s Six Bowl Hunt, No. 4
3. Coastal Carolina at Appalachian State winner
– CFN 2021 Coastal Carolina Preview
Both the Chanticleers and Mountaineers deserve their own spot on this list, but for all intents and purposes, the loser of their matchup in Boone, NC on October 20th has no real shot.
The Sun Belt champion is absolutely in the New Year’s Six chase as long as it goes unbeaten or has one loss, but forget about it with two losses.
That’s not to say Appalachian State couldn’t upset Miami on the road – it absolutely could – and run the table from there, but it also has to play Marshall and has road dates at Louisiana, Georgia State, Arkansas State and Troy. There’s a misfire somewhere in there.
Coastal Carolina gets its annual win over Kansas out of the way early, but what if the Big 12 team finally has something figured out?
The Chanticleers also have to go to Arkansas State and Georgia Southern, but they could rip through the slate if they’re good enough to beat Appalachian State on the road.
– CFN 2021 Appalachian State Preview
NEXT: Group Of Five Teams In New Year’s Six Bowl Hunt, No. 2
2. Cincinnati Bearcats
At Indiana, at Notre Dame.
If you think Cincinnati can win both of those games – or at least split – then go ahead and think a second straight trip to the New Year’s Six is likely.
But it’s more than just those two big non-conference showdowns in Indiana. The Bearcats have to … uhhhhh … ummmmm …
At Tulane? At Navy? Tulsa?
The SMU game will be an issue, but it’s going to take a massive upset for Cincinnati to lose in American Athletic Conference play outside of the date against UCF.
And it’ll probably have to happen twice. The two will probably play for the league title.
Remember, realistically, the American Athletic Conference winner likely isn’t going to the New Year’s Six game with two losses, and that means Cincinnati probably has to beat a far, far better-than-2020 UCF team now coached by Gus Malzahn, so …
NEXT: Group Of Five Teams In New Year’s Six Bowl Hunt, No. 1
1. UCF Knights
Start with this – UCF is a LOT better than the 2020 version.
There should be more of a defense, the offense will be every bit as explosive, and the coaching staff is – and I love Josh Heupel – is stronger with the great get of head coach Gus Malzahn along with an interesting staff. Also …
1. It’s boring to assume Cincinnati is a lock for the New Year’s Six spot, partly because this never works out like it’s supposed to.
2. UCF doesn’t go to Indiana and Notre Dame like Cincinnati has to.
3. Cincinnati will almost certainly have to beat UCF twice – these two will likely play in the American Athletic Conference championship.
The Knights don’t have it easy, but they could – and should beat – Boise State in Orlando and pull off a win at Louisville.
The bigger problem for UCF is the nastier AAC road run with trips to Navy, Temple, SMU, and that date with Cincinnati.
So okay, okay Bearcat fans. You’re right. The New Year’s Six spot will probably come down to whether or not UCF can beat your team twice, or vice versa.
But it’s going to be a blast watching these two battle it out.
21 for 2021 Preview Topics (so far)
21. Thoughts, Wishes, Hopes for 2021
20. Best Teams To Not Make CFP
19: Teams That Will Rebound Big
18. Teams That Will Fall Back
17: Every Power 5 Team’s Letdown Game
16. Expectations For New Head Coaches
15. Expectations For 2nd Year Head Coaches
14. Power 5 Hot Seat Coach Rankings
13. 21 Key Transfers You Need To Know
12. Group of 5 over Power 5 Upset Alerts
11. 5 of College Football’s New Superstars
